Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jonesburg, MO
May 19, 2024 1:06 PM CDT (18:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:41 PM Moonset 2:42 AM |
FXUS63 KLSX 191725 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1225 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Seasonably-warm temperatures persist through Tuesday, with some locations likely hitting 90 degrees both today and Tuesday.
- Mostly dry weather is forecast through early tonight, with the exception of a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms from 4-7 PM in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.
- An active pattern with multiple thunderstorm chances remains on the table for early/mid next week. The ingredients for severe thunderstorms are most likely to converge over our region Tuesday evening, but there may be another threat possible Wednesday afternoon depending on the speed of the cold front.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A weak cold front was located near a KMKC>>KEOK line as of 0800 UTC this morning. No precipitation has been occurring in association with this boundary, but there has been some scattered- broken clouds with bases around 6000 feet. The front is expected to soon stall out, before wavering back northward as a warm front later today. Not a whole lot has changed with respect to the forecast specifics compared to yesterday, other than it does appear that the front likely will be a bit further to the north (more in northeast Missouri/west central Illinois) than it looked like yesterday. There remains a lot of uncertainty as to if any storms will fire along/near the boundary this afternoon due to weak surface convergence, some capping, and building mid/upper level heights (implying subsidence). Most CAMs do eventually develop isolated convection, but differ on the timing/location. A minority (hi-res NAM/HRRR included) basically do not develop any thunderstorms at all. This is a long way to say that the threat for thunderstorms this afternoon in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois is pretty conditional. IF any storms do develop and impact this region, they likely would occur from roughly 4-7 PM. A strong to severe storm would be possible given high instability (HRRR probs >2000 J/kg are 80-90+ percent). Deep- layer shear is quite weak though and is stronger poleward of the retreating warm front. In our area this afternoon, model guidance shows about 20 knots so pulse convection and/or multicellular clusters would be the likely mode. Damaging winds in microbursts are possible due to high DCAPE values owing to dry midlevels of the atmosphere (entrainment) and a deep mixed layer. Cannot rule out a marginally severe hail event or two, but this may be tougher to come by given the expectation for non-rotating thunderstorms and very warm temperatures helping to melt hailstones on the way to the surface.
Speaking of temperatures, even warmer readings are expected this afternoon due to increasing mid/upper level heights, plenty of sunshine, and continued low-level warm air advection. Highs are forecast to top out in the upper 80s to the low 90s across the region. This was near the 90th percentile of available model guidance which performed well for yesterday's highs under fairly similar conditions.
Strong to severe convection is forecast early tonight upstream across the central Plains. However, as these storms head further east, they will be heading into a more and more unfavorable environment characterized by less instability and effective shear.
Therefore, the expectation is for fairly rapid weakening of convection as storms head out of western Missouri toward northeast and central parts of the state. Some showers/weak thunderstorms probably will make it in to those locations, but coverage may only be isolated to widely scattered in nature.
Convective trends are quite nebulous for late Monday morning/afternoon. CAMs are all over the place, which makes some sense given weak flow aloft and a general lack of organized mid/upper level forcing for ascent. There is a strong signal for an MCV to move out of Iowa into Wisconsin during the day, but this feature should not have any impacts further south in our neck of the woods. A couple of CAMs though have a second MCV further to the south over central Missouri that helps initiate convection across most of the region. There are hints of this feature also in deterministic global guidance, though there are also timing/track differences. Given the uncertainty of if this further south MCV will even exist, we are not messaging any threat for strong to severe convection at this time. Even if storms do manage to develop, the environment likely will not be as unstable as this afternoon, with continued marginal deep-layer shear (20-25 knots).
Monday's highs should be about 3-4 degrees cooler for most locations compared to this afternoon. The main reason for this is an increase in cloud cover with at least some debris/blowoff from morning showers/thunderstorms.
Gosselin
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
(Monday Night - Wednesday)
The focus for showers and thunderstorms Monday night should be mostly, if not entirely, north and west of the forecast area. This is where the stronger mid/upper level forcing for ascent will reside downstream of another shortwave trough. In addition, stronger low- level moisture convergence is more toward the mid-Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest along/north of the warm front.
Most of the daylight hours on Tuesday also are expected to be dry, with the timing of the synoptic cold front looking about ~3 hours slower than it did yesterday. The entire area will be within the warm sector on Tuesday, with very warm temperatures for mid/late May expected. Temperatures at 850 hPa approach +20C, which would be above the 95th percentile of climatology. There probably will be some increase in mid/high level cloudiness from west to east late in the day, but this should be a bit too late to have any meaningful impact on temperatures. Widespread upper 80s to low 90s are forecast, and I couldn't rule out some 94-95F readings in/around metro St. Louis which would break the record for the date (93F - 1941).
A strong, negatively tilted midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid-Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon/early evening. While guidance agrees well with the track of this feature, there is still some subtle timing differences which impacts the time/location of convective initiation. Strong forcing associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough is expected to develop thunderstorms by early to mid afternoon near the Missouri-Kansas border. Initial storms likely will be discrete (supercells), with the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector about 30 degrees off of the cold front/pre frontal trough axis. Storms likely will then congeal into a line/QLCS before entering parts of central and northeast Missouri early Tuesday evening. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes are the main threats. The tornado threat likely will be confined to any part of the line that is able to surge out and orient itself more from north/northwest to south/southeast given 0-3 km shear vectors around 30-35 knots out of the west/southwest.
How long the line of storms/QLCS is able to stay well-organized is a question mark. Deterministic guidance shows the strong mid/upper level forcing rapidly moving into the Great Lakes (and further and further removed from our area) by late Tuesday evening. In addition, there should be a bit less deep-layer shear with east/southeast extent and instability gradually wanes nocturnally. Therefore, the expectation is for gradual weakening of the line/QLCS after ~0300 UTC as storms head toward east-central Missouri and south-central Illinois. Exactly how fast/slow this weakening (and where within our area) occurs however is far from being set in stone, but the current SPC day 3 shows this scenario well with the enhanced risk in central Missouri through west-central Illinois and a somewhat tight gradient down to a marginal risk for us in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
There remains more uncertainty for convective trends on Wednesday, as the location of the front Wednesday afternoon is more variable in guidance. Of course, the front or at least the effective front may also be modulated by whatever convection happens late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Current indications are that parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois would have the best chances of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but this area could shift southeast (out of the area) or get expanded to the northwest depending on the speed of the front and how much antecedent convection impacts instability.
Temperatures on Wednesday remain low confidence due to the uncertainty with the speed/location of the cold front. The spread between the 25th/75th percentile of the NBM is pretty high, on the order of about 10 degrees across parts of the area. There should be a pretty tight gradient from northwest to southeast. In parts of northeast Missouri, highs may struggle to top 70 degrees. Meanwhile, ahead of the cold front, mid to upper 80s are expected. The 75th percentile of the NBM is around 90 degrees from St. Louis and points south and east, so wouldn't be shocked to see highs near 90 degrees ahead of the front if it is slower than currently forecast.
(Wednesday Night - Saturday)
Any threat for strong to severe convection in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois should exit the area by mid-late evening. The remainder of Wednesday night likely will be dry.
Thursday also should be a mostly dry day with a weak area of surface high pressure settling into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Model guidance has come into better agreement with the next midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Mississippi Valley. This feature should move across southern portions of the forecast area and interact with the west-east boundary to the south of the CWA Best chances (30-50%) are in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois Thursday night associated with this feature. Chances of showers and thunderstorms linger heading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend as additional shortwaves move through the Plains/Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty however increases Friday into Saturday as ensemble data shows more spread in the synoptic pattern. WPC 500-hPa height clusters show mid/upper level ridging over our area in 2 of the 4 clusters (40% of total membership from the grand ensemble). This scenario would tend to be warmer, but drier. Meanwhile, the other two clusters (60% of members) show zonal or southwest flow aloft. This type of scenario likely would be more active (better chances for showers and thunderstorms) along with at least slightly cooler daytime high temperatures.
Gosselin
AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are currently forecast through the valid TAF period. Weak southerly winds exist at all regional terminals, with a warm front now north of KUIN. Strong instability exists across the region, and though the front is weak and mid-level forcing is non-existent, we may see an errant thunderstorm near KUIN this afternoon. Confidence in even vicinity impacts at the terminal is low, and as such was kept out of the TAFs at this time.
Remnant thunderstorms from the central Great Plains will enter central Missouri tonight into tomorrow morning. A few thunderstorms may occur, but by that stage there is low confidence in much thunder. VCSH was added, but may need to be adjusted to include thunder if confidence increases in that. The convection will decay further as it approaches St. Louis, and may not make it there at all. If it does, it would be in the 17-20z timeframe.
MRB
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1225 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Seasonably-warm temperatures persist through Tuesday, with some locations likely hitting 90 degrees both today and Tuesday.
- Mostly dry weather is forecast through early tonight, with the exception of a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms from 4-7 PM in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.
- An active pattern with multiple thunderstorm chances remains on the table for early/mid next week. The ingredients for severe thunderstorms are most likely to converge over our region Tuesday evening, but there may be another threat possible Wednesday afternoon depending on the speed of the cold front.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A weak cold front was located near a KMKC>>KEOK line as of 0800 UTC this morning. No precipitation has been occurring in association with this boundary, but there has been some scattered- broken clouds with bases around 6000 feet. The front is expected to soon stall out, before wavering back northward as a warm front later today. Not a whole lot has changed with respect to the forecast specifics compared to yesterday, other than it does appear that the front likely will be a bit further to the north (more in northeast Missouri/west central Illinois) than it looked like yesterday. There remains a lot of uncertainty as to if any storms will fire along/near the boundary this afternoon due to weak surface convergence, some capping, and building mid/upper level heights (implying subsidence). Most CAMs do eventually develop isolated convection, but differ on the timing/location. A minority (hi-res NAM/HRRR included) basically do not develop any thunderstorms at all. This is a long way to say that the threat for thunderstorms this afternoon in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois is pretty conditional. IF any storms do develop and impact this region, they likely would occur from roughly 4-7 PM. A strong to severe storm would be possible given high instability (HRRR probs >2000 J/kg are 80-90+ percent). Deep- layer shear is quite weak though and is stronger poleward of the retreating warm front. In our area this afternoon, model guidance shows about 20 knots so pulse convection and/or multicellular clusters would be the likely mode. Damaging winds in microbursts are possible due to high DCAPE values owing to dry midlevels of the atmosphere (entrainment) and a deep mixed layer. Cannot rule out a marginally severe hail event or two, but this may be tougher to come by given the expectation for non-rotating thunderstorms and very warm temperatures helping to melt hailstones on the way to the surface.
Speaking of temperatures, even warmer readings are expected this afternoon due to increasing mid/upper level heights, plenty of sunshine, and continued low-level warm air advection. Highs are forecast to top out in the upper 80s to the low 90s across the region. This was near the 90th percentile of available model guidance which performed well for yesterday's highs under fairly similar conditions.
Strong to severe convection is forecast early tonight upstream across the central Plains. However, as these storms head further east, they will be heading into a more and more unfavorable environment characterized by less instability and effective shear.
Therefore, the expectation is for fairly rapid weakening of convection as storms head out of western Missouri toward northeast and central parts of the state. Some showers/weak thunderstorms probably will make it in to those locations, but coverage may only be isolated to widely scattered in nature.
Convective trends are quite nebulous for late Monday morning/afternoon. CAMs are all over the place, which makes some sense given weak flow aloft and a general lack of organized mid/upper level forcing for ascent. There is a strong signal for an MCV to move out of Iowa into Wisconsin during the day, but this feature should not have any impacts further south in our neck of the woods. A couple of CAMs though have a second MCV further to the south over central Missouri that helps initiate convection across most of the region. There are hints of this feature also in deterministic global guidance, though there are also timing/track differences. Given the uncertainty of if this further south MCV will even exist, we are not messaging any threat for strong to severe convection at this time. Even if storms do manage to develop, the environment likely will not be as unstable as this afternoon, with continued marginal deep-layer shear (20-25 knots).
Monday's highs should be about 3-4 degrees cooler for most locations compared to this afternoon. The main reason for this is an increase in cloud cover with at least some debris/blowoff from morning showers/thunderstorms.
Gosselin
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
(Monday Night - Wednesday)
The focus for showers and thunderstorms Monday night should be mostly, if not entirely, north and west of the forecast area. This is where the stronger mid/upper level forcing for ascent will reside downstream of another shortwave trough. In addition, stronger low- level moisture convergence is more toward the mid-Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest along/north of the warm front.
Most of the daylight hours on Tuesday also are expected to be dry, with the timing of the synoptic cold front looking about ~3 hours slower than it did yesterday. The entire area will be within the warm sector on Tuesday, with very warm temperatures for mid/late May expected. Temperatures at 850 hPa approach +20C, which would be above the 95th percentile of climatology. There probably will be some increase in mid/high level cloudiness from west to east late in the day, but this should be a bit too late to have any meaningful impact on temperatures. Widespread upper 80s to low 90s are forecast, and I couldn't rule out some 94-95F readings in/around metro St. Louis which would break the record for the date (93F - 1941).
A strong, negatively tilted midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid-Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon/early evening. While guidance agrees well with the track of this feature, there is still some subtle timing differences which impacts the time/location of convective initiation. Strong forcing associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough is expected to develop thunderstorms by early to mid afternoon near the Missouri-Kansas border. Initial storms likely will be discrete (supercells), with the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector about 30 degrees off of the cold front/pre frontal trough axis. Storms likely will then congeal into a line/QLCS before entering parts of central and northeast Missouri early Tuesday evening. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes are the main threats. The tornado threat likely will be confined to any part of the line that is able to surge out and orient itself more from north/northwest to south/southeast given 0-3 km shear vectors around 30-35 knots out of the west/southwest.
How long the line of storms/QLCS is able to stay well-organized is a question mark. Deterministic guidance shows the strong mid/upper level forcing rapidly moving into the Great Lakes (and further and further removed from our area) by late Tuesday evening. In addition, there should be a bit less deep-layer shear with east/southeast extent and instability gradually wanes nocturnally. Therefore, the expectation is for gradual weakening of the line/QLCS after ~0300 UTC as storms head toward east-central Missouri and south-central Illinois. Exactly how fast/slow this weakening (and where within our area) occurs however is far from being set in stone, but the current SPC day 3 shows this scenario well with the enhanced risk in central Missouri through west-central Illinois and a somewhat tight gradient down to a marginal risk for us in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
There remains more uncertainty for convective trends on Wednesday, as the location of the front Wednesday afternoon is more variable in guidance. Of course, the front or at least the effective front may also be modulated by whatever convection happens late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Current indications are that parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois would have the best chances of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but this area could shift southeast (out of the area) or get expanded to the northwest depending on the speed of the front and how much antecedent convection impacts instability.
Temperatures on Wednesday remain low confidence due to the uncertainty with the speed/location of the cold front. The spread between the 25th/75th percentile of the NBM is pretty high, on the order of about 10 degrees across parts of the area. There should be a pretty tight gradient from northwest to southeast. In parts of northeast Missouri, highs may struggle to top 70 degrees. Meanwhile, ahead of the cold front, mid to upper 80s are expected. The 75th percentile of the NBM is around 90 degrees from St. Louis and points south and east, so wouldn't be shocked to see highs near 90 degrees ahead of the front if it is slower than currently forecast.
(Wednesday Night - Saturday)
Any threat for strong to severe convection in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois should exit the area by mid-late evening. The remainder of Wednesday night likely will be dry.
Thursday also should be a mostly dry day with a weak area of surface high pressure settling into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Model guidance has come into better agreement with the next midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Mississippi Valley. This feature should move across southern portions of the forecast area and interact with the west-east boundary to the south of the CWA Best chances (30-50%) are in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois Thursday night associated with this feature. Chances of showers and thunderstorms linger heading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend as additional shortwaves move through the Plains/Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty however increases Friday into Saturday as ensemble data shows more spread in the synoptic pattern. WPC 500-hPa height clusters show mid/upper level ridging over our area in 2 of the 4 clusters (40% of total membership from the grand ensemble). This scenario would tend to be warmer, but drier. Meanwhile, the other two clusters (60% of members) show zonal or southwest flow aloft. This type of scenario likely would be more active (better chances for showers and thunderstorms) along with at least slightly cooler daytime high temperatures.
Gosselin
AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are currently forecast through the valid TAF period. Weak southerly winds exist at all regional terminals, with a warm front now north of KUIN. Strong instability exists across the region, and though the front is weak and mid-level forcing is non-existent, we may see an errant thunderstorm near KUIN this afternoon. Confidence in even vicinity impacts at the terminal is low, and as such was kept out of the TAFs at this time.
Remnant thunderstorms from the central Great Plains will enter central Missouri tonight into tomorrow morning. A few thunderstorms may occur, but by that stage there is low confidence in much thunder. VCSH was added, but may need to be adjusted to include thunder if confidence increases in that. The convection will decay further as it approaches St. Louis, and may not make it there at all. If it does, it would be in the 17-20z timeframe.
MRB
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
St. Louis, MO,
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