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FXUS61 KRLX 200310 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1110 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A high pressure system will provide hot and dry weather into midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1050 PM Sunday...

Trended overnight temperatures generally a degree or two cooler given afternoon mixing with drier air aloft, which has allowed temperatures to quickly tumble this evening amid clear skies and very light SFC-H850 flow. River valley fog develops throughout the night, along with a bit of stratus along the eastern slopes of portions of the mountains. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 750 PM Sunday...

Made minor modifications to cloud cover through Monday to represent the latest trends, but otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Diurnally driven Cu field has quickly dissipated across much of the region, with portions of the mountains being the one exception. Lingering surface convergence courtesy of anabatic flow could squeeze out a highly isolated light shower across the northeast mountains over the next hour or so, but most, if not all areas will remain dry, as katabatic flow begins in ernest after sunset and ends any chance of precipitation.

As of 215 PM Sunday...

Mid-upper level high pressure provides mainly dry weather with morning valley fog and afternoon cumulus amid above normal temperatures, which will reach at least the mid 80s across the lowlands this afternoon where they have not already, and then the upper 80s across the lowlands Monday afternoon. There will be somewhat of a ridge/valley split on lows tonight, lower 60s hilltops and upper 50s valleys, and 50s in the mountains.

A weak surface trough along the mountains, along with the elevated heat source effect, was providing enough focus for a more stout cumulus field, with some of the cumulus convection vigorous enough for a shower or even a thunderstorm. With precipitable water values under an inch, water issues are not anticipated. Mid-upper level ridging and less of a surface trough, if any, should keep Monday free of showers and thunderstorms altogether.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 216 PM Sunday...

Drier, and increasingly warmer weather is in store for Tuesday, as high pressure surface and aloft continues to build into the region.
Can't completely rule out an isolated shower or storm developing during peak heating hours Tuesday, provided something can break through the cap, but overall, expect much of Tuesday to remain dry.
With the building ridge across the area, some locations could even top out around 90 by Tuesday, which according to the nws heat risk map, sensitive individuals could be affected, even though this is below criteria for an advisory.

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada Tuesday into Wednesday, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday.
Showers and storms will develop out ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the possibility of some storms becoming strong to severe, mainly across parts of SE Ohio and perhaps into NE KY, with a damaging wind threat.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

Frontal boundary will move through the region Thursday, potentially stalling out just to our south early Friday, as surface high pressure briefly builds in across the north. Most of the CWA will remain dry on Friday, however, isolated showers and storms will continue to be possible across the south in particular, closer to the front. Active weather will return over the weekend, with the approach of another system from the west.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 825 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions continue into tonight. Developing river valley fog is the primary aviation concern later tonight, with restrictions currently progged for CKB/CRW/EKN/PKB. Overall, fog coverage will be less than last night. Any fog that develops overnight will lift/dissipate from ~ 11-1230Z Monday morning.

A VFR day is in store for Monday amid a developing FEW/SCT Cu field. A highly isolated afternoon/evening shower or storm across the mountains remains possible, but isn't anticipated to impact any of our terminals.

Surface flow goes calm tonight. Light and variable surface flow is expected on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight, high Monday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, coverage, and intensity of fog formation tonight could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE MON 05/20/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L M M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L M H H H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with river valley fog Tuesday morning, then with showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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