Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chapman, KS
May 8, 2024 2:07 PM CDT (19:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 5:26 AM Moonset 8:39 PM |
FXUS63 KTOP 081720 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1220 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An isolated strong storm possible southeast of I-35 early this morning.
- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the low 70s, heating up to 80s this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Early this morning a rather shallow surface trough is slowly moving east across central Kansas. Warm/moist advection is occurring ahead of this trough. At this hour, dewpoints higher than the 50 are constrained to Oklahoma, but as the trough moves further east this morning some of those higher dewpoints will likely make it into far eastern Kansas. This moisture return, combined with the surface trough and a mid-level wave, should provide enough ingredients for some isolated thunderstorms to develop by the early morning. If storms do form, they could become severe with 50+ knots of 0-6 km shear and maybe as much as 1,000 J/Kg ML CAPE. Thankfully, nearly all of the CAMs have this potential activity occurring just on the far southeastern fringes of our area and quickly moving out before gaining too much strength. Otherwise, a very pleasant and quiet day is in store.
A weak cold front may move into northern Kansas Thursday afternoon/evening. Some isolated showers may form along the front, but with little moisture and the best upper-level support further east, chances remain low at this time. The rest of the week and into the early weekend looks dry and mild.
Precipitation chances return Sunday into Monday, but models diverge on timing and amounts, so confidence is low at this point. Slightly warmer temperatures are favored for the weekend into early next week, with highs in the 80s.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Expect VFR conditions. North-northwest winds will increase over 10 KTS this afternoon with some minor gusts.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1220 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An isolated strong storm possible southeast of I-35 early this morning.
- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the low 70s, heating up to 80s this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Early this morning a rather shallow surface trough is slowly moving east across central Kansas. Warm/moist advection is occurring ahead of this trough. At this hour, dewpoints higher than the 50 are constrained to Oklahoma, but as the trough moves further east this morning some of those higher dewpoints will likely make it into far eastern Kansas. This moisture return, combined with the surface trough and a mid-level wave, should provide enough ingredients for some isolated thunderstorms to develop by the early morning. If storms do form, they could become severe with 50+ knots of 0-6 km shear and maybe as much as 1,000 J/Kg ML CAPE. Thankfully, nearly all of the CAMs have this potential activity occurring just on the far southeastern fringes of our area and quickly moving out before gaining too much strength. Otherwise, a very pleasant and quiet day is in store.
A weak cold front may move into northern Kansas Thursday afternoon/evening. Some isolated showers may form along the front, but with little moisture and the best upper-level support further east, chances remain low at this time. The rest of the week and into the early weekend looks dry and mild.
Precipitation chances return Sunday into Monday, but models diverge on timing and amounts, so confidence is low at this point. Slightly warmer temperatures are favored for the weekend into early next week, with highs in the 80s.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Expect VFR conditions. North-northwest winds will increase over 10 KTS this afternoon with some minor gusts.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFRI MARSHALL AAF,KS | 17 sm | 12 min | N 10G20 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 43°F | 30% | 29.57 |
Topeka, KS,
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