Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:28 AM

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FXUS63 KICT 282021 AAA AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 320 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm threat over eastern Kansas through this evening.

- Ongoing flooding concerns over southeast Kansas.

- A few more rounds of thunderstorms and potential severe weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening over eastern Kansas, along/ahead of an approaching weak Pacific cool front, and associated upper forcing approaching from the southwest. Frontal convergence and upper forcing isn't terribly strong, and instability is on the lower side, which should tend to keep storms isolated to widely scattered at best. Modest effective deep layer shear of only 30-40 kts along with the modest at best instability should keep thunderstorm magnitude in check through the evening, although can't rule out a strong to marginally severe storms capable of wind/hail. Greater thunderstorm coverage is expected just east/southeast of the forecast area late this afternoon through the evening.

Various areal flooding warnings and river flood warnings remain in effect over southeast Kansas, stemming from excessive runoff from yesterday/last night's thunderstorms. Even though the threat for additional widespread heavy rainfall has ended, any additional pockets of rainfall could aggravate ongoing flooding concerns. So will keep the southeast KS flood watch in effect until about 7 PM this evening.

An active weather pattern thunderstorm-wise returns off-and-on from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening, as a wobbly frontal zone and a pair of shortwaves traverses Mid-America. The shear and buoyancy combination favors severe weather potential, along with pockets of heavy rainfall and flooding. Buoyancy/instability looks potentially quite strong all three days given rich low-level moisture amidst steep mid-level lapse rates, which should compensate for the more modest deep layer shear values. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary threats, although a few tornadoes are possible, especially during the evening hours when low-level shear strengthens amidst strengthening low-level jet. Stay tuned, as we continue to refine the forecast the next few days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR and patchy IFR ceilings will gradually give way to SCT-BKN VFR clouds from the west today through this evening, as a weak cold front moves east through the region. Breezy south-southwest winds will prevail ahead of the front over eastern Kansas, with breezy west-northwest winds in its wake further west. Can't rule out a few stray thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening over far eastern Kansas (mainly along/east of the Flint Hills), but did not include this threat at CNU due to low coverage. Some potential for low clouds/visibilities to redevelop this evening-overnight over far southeast Kansas, but only hinted at this threat at CNU with FEW009 SCT015 for now.
Winds will switch back around to south-southwest for Monday, with light to modest speeds.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072-094>096- 098>100.

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