Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:17PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 8:00 PM EST (01:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:22AMMoonset 9:00PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 072335 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 635 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. A disturbance in the upper atmosphere may bring light snow tonight. Dry weather is forecast for Wednesday under high pressure. Low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes will provide a chance of showers Thursday, followed by widespread showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Models continue to show a band of light snow this evening, forming ahead of a disturbance embedded in a westerly flow aloft. Snow is not being reported as of 3 pm. However, the formation of the snow band aloft is evident on radar. Though low levels are dry with dew points in the single digits, snow falling from a mid level cloud deck is likely to accumulate once low levels are moistened by the precipitation. Main area of concern appears to be roughly along I-71, including Cincinnati, Wilmington and Columbus, where up to an inch could accumulate. Locations outside of the main band of snow may still receive a few tenths of an inch. The main band of snow should be east of the area by shortly after midnight, while a chance of snow persists later tonight mainly in southeastern locations. Chilly overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s are expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Any light snow should be ending by Wednesday morning as the disturbance departs quickly east. With high pressure moving in, no additional precipitation is expected, and clouds should show a decreasing trend through Wednesday afternoon and evening. Mid and high clouds may then increase Wednesday night in advance of the next area of low pressure. Milder high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s will be followed by lows in the 20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Quite a bit to unpack in the first half of the long term period, with an active pattern setting up for the final part of the workweek into the first part of the weekend.

Aloft, we will see a flattening S/W system approach the OH Vly quickly during the afternoon/evening on Thursday as it progresses from the central plains into the Great Lakes. Modest, but still sufficient, moisture return ahead of this system, combined with some weak isentropic lift, will allow for a few -SHRA to develop and move through the ILN FA during the late afternoon into the evening hours. This will be more of a nuisance-type pcpn potential moreso than anything else, with chance PoP focused near/E of the I-75 and I-71 corridors for Thursday evening. Rainfall, in general, will be light with this initial round of pcpn.

Deep-layer WAA will be ongoing Thursday night into Friday, with little to no diurnal dropoff expected temp wise locally during this period. In fact, we may see temps nudge up a degree or two from Thursday highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s through the night into daybreak Friday.

On Friday, our attention will quickly turn to a digging and dynamic system taking shape initially across the central plains during the daytime period. Broad/large-scale ascent will increase rapidly during the daytime on Friday, with additional isentropic-lift aiding in the development of SCT SHRA in the expanding warm sector during the daytime period. Although WAA will be quite impressive, it will be countered by extensive cloud cover and the aforementioned SCT SHRA activity on Friday afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions by late in the day and especially into the overnight period. Highs on Friday will reach into the upper 50s and lower 60s, with little to no dropoff during the nighttime on Friday, at least until the predawn hours Saturday.

Models are honing in on a favored evolution for the system on Friday night, which would entail lee-side cyclogenesis early in the day in the south-central plains and rapid deepening of the sfc cyclone during the afternoon into the evening as it progresses into the mid MO Rvr Vly. East of the low center will be a strengthening of the deep layer wind fields across the TN/OH Vlys, with robust moisture and mass transport ongoing near/east of the MS Rvr by the evening. In fact, ensemble mean PWATs are likely to push 250-300% of seasonal norms by Friday evening across much of the OH Vly. The strong LL and deep-layer wind fields will support the advection of an unseasonably moisture-rich environment north into the region by Friday evening/night, with dewpoints surging into the lower 60s. This will be present as large-scale ascent increases even further by late in the evening into the overnight with the approach of the main S/W energy from the west.

It is at this juncture where the overall setup becomes perhaps a bit concerning. Although there are some natural discrepancies to be worked out regarding the location and juxtaposition of the various ingredients and fields being reviewed, there appears to be a non- zero threat for both some convective/severe potential and some broader-scale synoptically-driven wind as well. Several deterministic fcst soundings, which are largely supported by ensemble means as well, show a seasonably potent H8 LLJ of 50-60kt+ pivoting around the eastern periphery of the approaching S/W and attendant trof axis. H9 winds of 40kts coincident with the stronger deeper-layer wind fields appear probable as well. Additionally, most solutions show a narrow SSW-NNE oriented ribbon of sfc-based instby advecting northward around the eastern periphery of the main trof axis aligned much further to the west. The juxtaposition of /any/ sfc-based instby with wind fields as such deserves to be watched, at the very least. It is perhaps just a /bit/ too early to mention any severe threat in the HWO, but there are several solutions suggesting there may be some brief overlap of strong dynamics and kinematics with a marginal thermodynamic environment, indicating the potential for an isolated severe threat is well within the realm of possibilities at this juncture. Too early to say which areas specifically would be favored for such a threat, but /any/ instby ribbon evolution into E IN and W OH early in the overnight will undoubtedly be monitored closely with such strong/LL and deep-layer shear present. Long and somewhat curved hodographs with any instby that can become sfc based in nature would present a heightened concern, should things evolve in such a manner. Will also need to see to what degree the LL bulk shear vectors are perpendicular /or not/ to any convective line that develops.

Another concern to be mentioned will be the synoptically-induced winds, with sustained winds of ~20kts and gusts 30-35kts Friday night and continuing into the day on Saturday in the post-frontal environment. Widespread SHRA/TSRA moves through Friday night into the morning hours on Saturday, with strong CAA evolving during the daytime period. Much colder air briefly settles into the area during the daytime Saturday and into Saturday night before sfc high pressure moves in by Sunday and a moderating trend in temps begins by early next week again.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. An embedded disturbance in the mid levels tracking east across the Great Lakes tonight will bring some pockets of light snow to the region. Although VFR conditions will predominate, some pockets of MVFR conditions may occur, with isolated IFR visibilities possible. Light pcpn is expected to exit the area from west to east between 06Z and 12Z.

On Wednesday, weak low pressure and a trof will move into the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient will tighten some, allowing for winds to increase from the southwest and west around 10 knots. Clouds will show a decreasing trend through the day. VFR conditions are expected.

Surface high pressure will move into the Ohio Valley for Wednesday night. High clouds will increase from west to east overnight.

OUTLOOK . MVFR/IFR conditions likely late Thursday night into Friday night. Thunderstorms possible Friday. MVFR conditions may linger into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . Coniglio NEAR TERM . Coniglio SHORT TERM . Coniglio LONG TERM . KC AVIATION . Hickman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi68 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast28°F11°F49%1021.7 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi67 minNE 610.00 miOvercast29°F13°F51%1022.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVG

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