Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Columbia, MO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:17PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 2:34 AM CST (08:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:58PMMoonset 8:49AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia, MO
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location: 38.93, -92.29     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 190435 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1035 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 203 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

A strong arctic cold front is still on track to pass through most of the area from northwest to southeast overnight tonight. By 1200 UTC Wednesday, this front should be located near a KBBG>>KFAM>>KSLO line. The boundary will exit the CWA by mid morning, with a low possibility of a few rain showers associated with the frontal passage. Much colder air will begin to infiltrate the mid-Mississippi Valley behind this front, as temperatures drop into the teens and twenties throughout the day. In addition, a brisk north/northwest wind will make it feel about 10-15 degrees colder than the ambient air temperature.

Attention for Wednesday afternoon/early evening is on the potential for a frontogenetically-enhanced band of precipitation. Precipitation Wednesday afternoon should be predominantly snow, though a brief period of sleet (~1-2 hours) is expected before the changeover. Deterministic guidance is a bit uncertain on the strength of the low/mid level frontogenetic forcing, with the NAM being on the stronger end of things while the ECMWF is noticeably weaker. The GFS seemed like a good compromise between the two. In terms of placement, both deterministic and ensemble guidance is in high agreement that far southern sections of the area (Reynolds/Iron/Madison and vicinity) are most likely to see measurable snowfall. The GEFS is quite a bit more bullish than the EPS, with fairly high probabilities for over an inch of snowfall in these locations (60-75%). Mesoscale snow bands are notoriously hard to pinpoint both the amounts within the band, and the exact placement. A battle between increasing dry low-level advection and the strengthening low/mid level frontogenesis will take place, but at least light snow amounts are favored due to supplemental mid/upper air forcing via the passage of a midlevel shortwave trough. With this forecast package, have bumped up PoPs in parts of southeast Missouri to categoricals (75-90%), and slightly boosted highest totals to around 1 inch. There is potential for slightly higher amounts (1-2"), but was not confident enough at this time in the strength of the mesoscale forcing to go higher.

While light snow will be mainly confined to southeast Missouri, the cold will be areawide. We are expecting temperatures (and wind chills) roughly on par with those observed 1/6-1/7. Lows Wednesday night slightly below zero in northeast Missouri to around 10 degrees in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois are forecast. With lingering northerly winds around 10 knots, wind chills of -5 to -20F are likely. Coldest wind chills will be in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois where a wind chill advisory may be necessary down the road.

Gosselin

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 203 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

(Thursday - Thursday Night)

Cold, cold, cold is the theme through Thursday night as a 1040+ hPa surface (~99th percentile) high slides toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Thursday night is likely to be colder than Wednesday night in terms of ambient air temperatures as the aforementioned surface high helps provide light/variable winds and a clear sky. The coldest conditions will once again be in northeast Missouri where lows of 0 to -5F are forecast. Elsewhere, single digit (above zero) lows are expected. The good news? There will be no real wind chill to speak of due to little/no wind.

(Friday - Next Tuesday)

The synoptic pattern in the extended is expected to be characterized by strong mid/upper level ridging near the west coast, with broad troughing over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS centered from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes. This puts our area beneath northwest flow aloft. Generally colder than normal temperatures are forecast, though values will be a bit up and down as there should be a series of weak disturbances and associated cold fronts to move through the region. Ahead of these (or within the warm sectors), near to slightly above normal temperatures should occur. Behind each front, a return to well-below normal values are forecast.

While dry weather is in the forecast currently, we will have to closely watch each northwest flow shortwave trough (and associated clipper) as there will likely be one roughly every 24 hours starting on Sunday. Climatologically speaking, snowfalls associated with these systems favor areas to our north and east, though the position of the ridge near the west coast may be far enough west to see some snowfall at least into our eastern CWA.

Gosselin

AVIATION. (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1031 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

Minimal forecast changes were made for the 06Z TAF cycle, as VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all local TAF sites. A cold front will move south through the area overnight tonight and early Wednesday morning, bringing with it a northerly wind sift and increasing wind speeds. Ceilings are also expected to gradually lower, but will likely remain above VFR levels.

During the afternoon, a few snow flurries will be possible across central MO and in the vicinity of St. Louis. However, accumulations or impacts are not expected at any local terminals.

BRC

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbia, Columbia Regional Airport, MO8 mi40 minNW 610.00 miFair39°F33°F79%1012.8 hPa
Jesse Viertel Memorial Airport, MO21 mi39 minN 810.00 miFair40°F34°F79%1013.2 hPa
Jefferson City, Jefferson City Memorial Airport, MO24 mi41 minNW 310.00 miFair36°F32°F86%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCOU

Wind History from COU (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrSE9SE9SE10S10S10S11S12S12S8S9S7S6S6SW9S6S5S8S12S11SW8SW5SW8SW6NW6
1 day agoNW9NW10W9
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2 days agoN7N6N6N4N5W3W7W5SW5SW8W7W10SW7SW8W9W12W11W11W11W10W9NW11NW10NW10

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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