Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, KS
May 8, 2024 3:51 PM CDT (20:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:12 AM Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 5:19 AM Moonset 8:32 PM |
FXUS63 KTOP 081925 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the lower to mid 70s, warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.
- Showers and thunderstorms chances return late Sunday through Wednesday with a 30 to 60 percent chance
- At this time, the severe weather chances will remain south of the region, across Texas early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Early this afternoon, an upper low was centered across the central portions of SD/NE, with an upper perturbation lifting northeast across western MO into northwest AR. A complex of severe storms was shifting east, south of St.Louis, into the MS River Valley along and south of a surface warm front.
Tonight through Saturday night:
The upper low across southern SD will shear apart with the northern stream section becoming a positive tilt H5 trough extending from the Ontario Canada, southwest into eastern NE by 00Z FRI. The southern stream section of the H5 trough will retrograde southwest into the Four Corners Region and amplify. A northern stream H5 trough will dig southeast across central Canada into the Great Lakes and phase with the positive tilt H5 trough across New England. As the positive tilt H5 trough digs southeast across MO, there may be enough ascent for a few afternoon showers or possibly a few thunderstorms across the far northeast counties, along the NE border, late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. These storms will not be severe as MLCAPES will be below 500 J/KG.
Expect cooler and drier weather through the period, with highs in the 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Sunday through Wednesday:
The southern stream H5 trough across the southwestern US will shift east across the central and southern Plains. Ascent ahead of the H5 trough along with richer moisture advection will cause showers and thunderstorms to develop across western half of the state. These showers and thunderstorms will move east into the CWA Sunday evening and continue through early Tuesday morning as the upper trough slowly drifts east-southeast across KS/OK. At this time the stronger H5 Jet max will remain across TX, so our vertical windshear will be rather weak. The surface low will also track southeast from southwest KS into eastern OK. Thus, most storms will remain elevated. Therefore due to both weak vertical wind shear and instability, these storms do not appear to be severe Sunday night into Tuesday morning.
Tuesday afternoon, an upper trough will dig onshore across the the Pacific Northwest, and then dig southeast across the central Rockies into the central and southern Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. The combination isentropic lift and DCVA will provide strong ascent for periods of showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms. The probability of precipitation will range between 30 to 60 percent.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Expect VFR conditions. North-northwest winds will increase over 10 KTS this afternoon with some minor gusts.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the lower to mid 70s, warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.
- Showers and thunderstorms chances return late Sunday through Wednesday with a 30 to 60 percent chance
- At this time, the severe weather chances will remain south of the region, across Texas early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Early this afternoon, an upper low was centered across the central portions of SD/NE, with an upper perturbation lifting northeast across western MO into northwest AR. A complex of severe storms was shifting east, south of St.Louis, into the MS River Valley along and south of a surface warm front.
Tonight through Saturday night:
The upper low across southern SD will shear apart with the northern stream section becoming a positive tilt H5 trough extending from the Ontario Canada, southwest into eastern NE by 00Z FRI. The southern stream section of the H5 trough will retrograde southwest into the Four Corners Region and amplify. A northern stream H5 trough will dig southeast across central Canada into the Great Lakes and phase with the positive tilt H5 trough across New England. As the positive tilt H5 trough digs southeast across MO, there may be enough ascent for a few afternoon showers or possibly a few thunderstorms across the far northeast counties, along the NE border, late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. These storms will not be severe as MLCAPES will be below 500 J/KG.
Expect cooler and drier weather through the period, with highs in the 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Sunday through Wednesday:
The southern stream H5 trough across the southwestern US will shift east across the central and southern Plains. Ascent ahead of the H5 trough along with richer moisture advection will cause showers and thunderstorms to develop across western half of the state. These showers and thunderstorms will move east into the CWA Sunday evening and continue through early Tuesday morning as the upper trough slowly drifts east-southeast across KS/OK. At this time the stronger H5 Jet max will remain across TX, so our vertical windshear will be rather weak. The surface low will also track southeast from southwest KS into eastern OK. Thus, most storms will remain elevated. Therefore due to both weak vertical wind shear and instability, these storms do not appear to be severe Sunday night into Tuesday morning.
Tuesday afternoon, an upper trough will dig onshore across the the Pacific Northwest, and then dig southeast across the central Rockies into the central and southern Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. The combination isentropic lift and DCVA will provide strong ascent for periods of showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms. The probability of precipitation will range between 30 to 60 percent.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Expect VFR conditions. North-northwest winds will increase over 10 KTS this afternoon with some minor gusts.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWC LAWRENCE MUNI,KS | 8 sm | 59 min | WNW 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 61°F | 51% | 29.52 | |
| KFOE TOPEKA RGNL,KS | 17 sm | 58 min | NNW 12G21 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 54°F | 42% | 29.55 | |
| KTOP PHILIP BILLARD MUNI,KS | 18 sm | 58 min | WNW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 55°F | 42% | 29.54 |
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,
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