Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elsah, IL

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:05PM Sunday January 16, 2022 8:05 PM CST (02:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:49PMMoonset 6:36AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL
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location: 38.94, -90.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 162349 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 549 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 211 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

The big question for tonight is whether we will see any snow. Water vapor imagery is showing a rather potent short wave trof digging into the upper MS Valley at this time and this wave will continue digging southeastward through the middle MS Valley tonight. All of the model guidance has been indicating decent large scale forcing with this wave along with a bout of mid level frontogenetical forcing, but vary quite a bit on whether any measurable precipitation will occur. A bit more of the 12z NWP suite is adding some support for some light QPF including the NAM, NAMNEST, ECMWF and some of the EPS members, and the NH CMC. The main focus remains across west central into south central IL coincident with the greatest forcing. I do think there will be a brief 1-2 hour window of light snow, but whether there is any accumulation is a bit more questionable. At this time I have POPS generally spanning areas of far NE and EC MO into western IL with the best potential for maybe a dusting of snow east of the MS River across the eastern CWA.

Otherwise besides the increase in clouds tonight ahead of this short wave and associated cold front, there will be a reinforcing post- frontal surge of cold air and additional stratus overnight. The stratus should persist Monday morning and then diminish during the afternoon. The combination of the clouds, infusion of cold air, and snow cover will make for another seasonably cold day with slightly below normal temps.

Glass

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 211 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

We are still anticipating a warm-up to varying degrees on Tuesday and it looks brief. The overall pattern of rising heights aloft as the eastern trof departs and ridging develops ahead of the next digging trof, combined with return of low level south-southwest flow is favored for warmer temperatures. And we should see warmer temperatures, even above normal temperatures, but the snow cover and bouts of high clouds are likely to temper just how warm we could get and I don't believe any of the blended model guidance is capturing this aspect. I have toned down the highs a tad from the NBM and MOS suite with this in mind.

As we have been discussing the last few days, after Tuesday's brief warm-up we are going to get quite cold. The large scale pattern features a rather deep long wave trof evolving over eastern and central NOAM in the Tuesday night-Thursday time frame. In association with this evolution, a strong cold front is forecast to move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ushering in a much colder arctic air mass.

We are still monitoring the potential for wintry precipitation across parts of southeast MO and southern IL on Wednesday. This would be associated with a short wave emanating from the eastern Pacific that traverses the lower MS Valley within the increasingly cyclonic flow accompanying the evolving long wave. The position of the cold front and this short wave and where we see a surface wave develop along the front, combined with large scale forcing and mid level frontogenesis accompanying the short wave will be the key if we see any precipitation across the southern CWA or it remains further south. Sans the NAM, the majority of the global models do keep this south of our area, however we will need to continue watching it closely.

COLD will be the word Wednesday night through the end of the week as a strong Arctic surface high builds into the MS Valley, and another digging trof reinforces the cold air on Friday. The blended model guidance temperature spread has decreased for this time frame, but the exact magnitude of the cold is still coming into focus. Temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees below normal and this blast looks at least comparable to the one we saw on January 6-7th. Bitter cold, dangerous wind chills will ultimately be possible for parts of northeast MO and west central IL on Thursday and Friday mornings, driven largely by sub-zero min temperatures.

Glass

AVIATION. (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

The primary item of interest over the 00Z TAF cycle will be the potential for lowering ceilings, which is already underway in a few areas. While this is already occurring across central and northeast MO, a shield of IFR to MVFR stratus will continue to move east this evening and will soon impact St. Louis area terminals as well. Ceilings will likely fluctuate through the night, particularly as a cold front sweeps through the area after midnight, but should remain mostly at MVFR levels through at least late tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, a few light snow showers will be possible between late this evening and overnight, with intermittent snow flurries possible through tomorrow morning and even into the early afternoon. Accumulations are not likely at any local terminals, but a light dusting of fluffy snow cannot be completely ruled out at St. Louis area terminals. This would be most likely overnight tonight, as any flurries that tomorrow will almost certainly be too light for accumulations.

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO3 mi72 minWNW 1110.00 miOvercast29°F21°F72%1011.2 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO12 mi75 minW 710.00 miOvercast31°F24°F76%1011.7 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL17 mi76 minW 610.00 miOvercast28°F21°F74%1010.2 hPa
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO24 mi72 minW 510.00 miOvercast30°F25°F82%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSET

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2 days ago0SW300000000E400E4E9E8E5E9E11E9SE8E9SE6E8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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