Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:26PM Thursday October 21, 2021 2:12 PM PDT (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 6:15PMMoonset 7:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 310 Am Pdt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm pdt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 14 seconds. Rain. A slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 14 seconds. Rain and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 12 to 14 ft at 15 seconds. Rain likely.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 11 to 13 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 10 to 12 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves around 2 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Sun..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. W swell 9 to 11 ft. Rain.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 7 to 8 ft. W swell 16 to 18 ft. Rain likely. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
PZZ500 310 Am Pdt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Gusty winds continuing in the northernmost outer waters today and tonight. Moderate rainfall returns as a secondary weaker boundary moves over the waters late tonight into Friday morning. Winds are forecast to turn to the west and weaken in the wake of the front Friday. More impactful marine weather arrives with a strong atmospheric river late in the weekend into early next week. Gale force southerly winds, very steep waves, and large swell are possible Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, CA
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location: 38.95, -123.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Eureka, CA
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FXUS66 KEKA 211325 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 625 AM PDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A series of storms will bring rain and periods of gusty winds through the weekend. The heaviest rain periods will occur tonight and Sunday. Wet and unsettled weather will continue on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

DISCUSSION. The next potent storm in a long series has been winding up offshore the Washington coast overnight. Southerly winds with a low level coastal jet in advance of the front will likely produce gusts to 50 mph over the exposed ridges and coastal headlands today. A wind advisory has been posted for the higher elevations of Humboldt County and coastal Del Norte County. Around Humboldt Bay/Eel Delta wind gusts around 35 mph are expected.

Automated rain gauges have been showing light upslope rain (0.01in to 0.04in per hour) occurring across Mendocino, Lake, Trinity and southern Humboldt Counties overnight. All the models have rain increasing and spreading northward through the day today. Hourly rates will increase late this afternoon as the frontal band intersects the coast. The highest rates are expected to occur this evening and overnight as the plume of moist air progresses across the area. Max hourly rates around 0.30in/hr to 0.40in/hr are generally expected, though topographic forcing could yield locally higher rates around 0.50in/hr. These rates are below 1.0in./hr flash flood guidance for debris flow on burn scars.

The widespread rain tonight will wind down during the late morning and afternoon on Friday. The next round of mostly light to moderate rain will arrive late Friday night into Saturday. The strongest and wettest of storms in the series will arrive on Sunday and will probably yield higher hourly rain rates. 6 hourly amounts from 1.5 to 3.0 inches are forecast with the next plume of moisture expected on Sunday. The deterministic models and ensembles were still showing subtle differences on the location of the rain max. The GFS was farther south, over Lake and southeastern Mendo Counties. The ECMWF has the rain max centered farther north, over southern Humboldt/northern Mendocino Counties. Either way the entire forecast area will get another good soaking. The rate of southeast progression of the moist plume is also not completely certain. A slower progression will bring higher potential for localized flooding as well as rock and mud slides on area roads. Also, the national blend of models have been locking onto stronger southerly winds with this storm Sunday morning. The ECMWF ensemble member mean for select airports are also indicating potential wind gusts to 40 mph. A handful of members are over 50 mph. It will likley be windy again before and during frontal passage.

More rain and showers will follow on Monday and Tuesday. By the end of this weekend, precipitation totals will be above normal for the month of October even for the climatologically driest portions of the forecast area.

AVIATION. The arrival of yet another frontal system brings gusty southerlies and LLWS to all terminals in the CWA. The LLWS is more velocity oriented with respect to altitude than direction. A strengthening low offshore of BC tightens the pressure gradient, as shown by MSLP. Expect sustained strong breezes with near Gale gusts at the coastal terminals until the early evening and vicinity rain showers for much of the TAF period. KUKI will start its' gusty regime in the early evening, just as KCEC and KACV winds begin to ease. /EYS

MARINE. Satellite imagery shows the progression of a wobbly low spinning into a focused, concentrated cyclonic system off of the BC and Washington coast. As of 12z, southerly winds are building to Gale force and greater at buoy 46006 which is 600 miles offshore from the CWA. Gale warnings are in effect for the northern outer and inner waters through the afternoon with expected gusts greater than 40 kts. Hazardous seas will follow the Gale conditions. Winds will ease by the late afternoon with a western swell persisting at 13 to 16 feet in height and 13 to 15 seconds in period. /EYS

BEACH HAZARDS. Large northwest swells are expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Current models are showing the largest swells on Monday. This will bring surf to 20 feet or higher and a high surf advisory may be needed. The GFS wind fields have inconsistent and changing around each run. Hopefully, the GFS model will stabilize and lock in over the weekend. Stay tuned. Large surf could pound the beaches early next week.

The tidal anomalies are nearly 1 foot, but with high tides only around 7 feet at the north spit and this is not expected to cause coastal flooding. /MKK

HYDROLOGY. Heavy rain rates will increase the potential for localized flooding, particularly on Sunday. Debris flows on burn scars, mainly the River Complex and Monument burn scars in Trinity County, will be possible if hourly rain rates reach or exceed 1 inch per hour. A Flash Flood/Debris Flow Watch for these burn scars will need to be considered, particularly for Sunday when 6 hourly rain amounts are forecast to reach 1.5 to 3.0 inches.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ101.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ104>106.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS . Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450-470.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ455-475.



Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 3 mi54 min E 15G22 60°F 1016.9 hPa
46014 - PT ARENA - 19NM North of Point Arena, CA 23 mi32 min SSE 23G31 57°F 53°F1015.8 hPa57°F

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ukiah Municipal Airport, CA31 mi16 minSSE 10 G 172.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist63°F60°F90%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUKI

Wind History from UKI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6SE7S6S4SE4SE3SW3S4S3S30S4SE6SE8S6S4S5SE7S7S12
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2 days agoNW3S3300W300000000000000NE3SE9SE10
G20
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arena, California
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Point Arena
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:13 AM PDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM PDT     1.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:31 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:44 AM PDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:30 PM PDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Point Arena, California Current
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Point Arena
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:42 AM PDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:11 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:31 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:57 AM PDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:49 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:52 PM PDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:27 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:15 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:42 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:41 PM PDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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