Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Chevy Chase, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:12PM Sunday January 16, 2022 4:50 AM EST (09:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:54PMMoonset 6:41AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 336 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.small craft advisory in effect from noon est today through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Monday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming S late. Gusts up to 40 kt...diminishing to 30 kt late. Waves 2 ft. Rain, snow and freezing rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain and snow after midnight.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning. A chance of snow through the day.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach the waters Sunday before passing through Sunday night into early Monday. Thereafter, high pressure will build along the southeast coast into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Chevy Chase, MD
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location: 39, -77.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 160903 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 403 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. High pressure to the north will remain in place into this morning. A rapidly strengthening low pressure will then move quickly from the Deep South across the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday into early Wednesday before a cold front crosses the region late Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure briefly returns to finish out the work week before another area of low pressure may impact the region by Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. It is the calm before the storm with cold and dry conditions in place. The 06Z WPC surface analysis depicts an anticyclone centered over upstate New York with a cold air damming signature extending southward into the southeastern U.S. The area of low pressure primed to lift toward the Mid-Atlantic region today currently sits over south-central Alabama. As mentioned, the air mass in place across the Mid-Atlantic is quite cold with temperatures in the teens and dew points sitting around 0 to 5F. The key question will be how long this sub-freezing air mass can stay in place ahead of the approaching winter storm.

While skies are mainly clear tonight, GOES-16 infrared satellite imagery shows a shield of higher clouds approaching from southern portions of Virginia and West Virginia. This will moisten the upper troposphere with the lower levels gradually moistening from falling precipitation. The forecast remains on track with the surface cyclone taking a path between I-95 and State Route 15. As is common with these tracks, a messy winter precipitation scenario unfolds for areas east of I-81. All locations should began as snow with areas along and east of I-95 seeing the shortest duration of an all-snow event. Between 21Z-00Z, most models bring the poleward shifting 925-850 mb warm nose across I-66 and U.S. 50. This 50 to 60 knot surge of easterly flow above the surface will quickly shift precipitation over to a wintry mix, particularly comprised of freezing rain. The big question is how long the surface layer can maintain freezing temperatures. By the late evening, areas east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins should see a switchover to a cold rain as temperatures rise into the upper 30s to low 40s. This would actually establish today's high temperature.

A brunt of the winter storm will be experienced from the Blue Ridge westward. With thermal profiles remaining below freezing for much of the event, 5 to 10 inches of snow are likely, with pockets over a foot where banding occurs. Additionally, significant ice accretions are also possible overnight with 0.10-0.20 inches in the forecast for portions of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins. This would also include sections of central Virginia. Given the strong dynamics with the trough and pronounced right entrance region jet forcing, some hefty snow rates reaching 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect. Most winter weather related headlines drop off overnight except for the Alleghenies which continue into the following morning. For those that must travel, be sure to check the forecast and proceed with caution given the likelihood of hazardous weather. With wind gusts across the mountains reaching the 30 to 40 mph range, brief periods of blizzard conditions are certainly possible.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. On Monday morning into the afternoon, upslope snow will continue across the Alleghenies. For that reason, a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 7 PM Monday. Storm totals could easily exceed a foot during this 24 hour plus event. Elsewhere, during the early morning hours, thermal profiles quickly cool down as wind fields turn more west-northwesterly. As the upper low tracks overhead, some brief periods of snow are possible. This would fall on top of the slushy mess from earlier portions of the winter storm. High emperatures will be slightly below average, but blustery winds drop wind chills into the 20s. Mountain locales will be the exception with conditions feeling more like the -10 to 0 degree range. Snow showers continue into the night along the Allegheny Front with lows in the teens. Elsewhere, nighttime temperatures are to stay in the upper teens to 20s with decreasing clouds.

After an active period, conditions should be tranquil on Tuesday with similar high temperatures to the previous day. Brisk westerly winds persist, but will not be quite as gusty as gradients weaken a bit. High pressure builds to the south Tuesday night with seasonable conditions for mid-January.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure will move east to allow for a cold front to approach the region during the day Wednesday. The front will bring a chance for rain and/or snow showers late Wednesday through Thursday morning. A gusty and chilly northwest wind will develop behind the front as a second area of high pressure builds to our northwest. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal Thursday. Below normal temperatures will continue Friday with high pressure covering the region.

Models are indicating a potential coastal low pressure system Friday night into the day Saturday. The GFS develops a coastal low near coastal Carolina, intensifying it but keeping it moving out to sea. Thus, leaving us dry with a winter chill. The European model shows a significant winter storm with wind and heavy snow for much of our region late Friday through Saturday. The Canadian model shows an elongated coastal low pressure system along the Carolina Coast. intensifying it and moving it northward toward southern New England. This would put strong winds in the east and moderate to heavy snow accumulations along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. We still have 5 to 6 days until this potential winter storm, so the exact track and intensity could change quite a few times between now and then.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The VFR conditions to start out the day will be short lived as a potent winter storm approaches from the south. During the afternoon hours, snow is forecast to spread from south to north leading to widespread IFR conditions. Some periods of LIFR conditions are certainty possible as wintry precipitation becomes heavier at times during the afternoon and evening. For the DC and Baltimore terminals, freezing rain and perhaps sleet enter the picture by the early evening. Depending on how long the cold air remains at the surface, this wintry mix could last into the late evening before turning to a cold rain. For KCHO and KMRB, heftier snow and ice amounts are likely with both locations in a Winter Storm Warning. Precipitation decreases in intensity during the middle of the night as the low lifts into central Pennsylvania.

The other issue at hand will be the blustery winds, including multiple wind shifts late this evening as the low lifts northward. In addition, a potent easterly low-level jet leads to a period of enhanced vertical shear between around 00-06Z. The blustery conditions continue into Monday with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots. Once the system tracks out of the region, a return to VFR conditions are likely for the second half of Monday and into Tuesday.

VFR conditions. Brief MVFR conditions could unfold with rain and/or snow showers Wednesday and Wednesday night at any terminals, particularly near CHO and DCA. Winds southwest 10 knots gusts 15 to 20 knots Wednesday, then shifting northwest 5 to 10 knots Wednesday night. Winds northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 20 knots Thursday.

MARINE. With a strong area of low pressure approaching the water today, brisk winds will support small craft conditions through this afternoon. By 6 PM, a Gale Warning goes into effect for all waters with gusts of 35 to 40 knots expected through the night and into much of Monday. A series of wind shifts take place as this surface low moves toward Pennsylvania. Besides the blustery winds, the mixed bag of wintry precipitation will make conditions treacherous over the area waterways. Strong pressure gradients maintain very gusty wind fields into Monday night and parts of Tuesday. Some gale potential may linger, but 25 to 30 knot wind gusts are certainly likely during that period, albeit with a dry forecast.

Small craft advisories possible Wednesday, then again on Thursday mainly over the open Chesapeake Bay. Winds southwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 20 knots Wednesday. On Thursday, winds northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for Anne Arundel and St. Mary's County where confidence is high for moderate coastal flooding. Coastal Flood Watches have been extended to Cecil County where moderate coastal flooding is possible based on latest PETSS output. Water levels are low presently, but the approaching surface low likely results in at least minor flooding as the system heads northeast into the region tonight into Monday, producing strong onshore flow. Tidal levels then quickly drop later Monday as winds turn offshore.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for DCZ001. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for DCZ001. MD . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ013-014-016. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for MDZ003-004-502. Coastal Flood Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for MDZ014. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for MDZ005-006-008-011-503>508. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for MDZ001-501. Coastal Flood Warning from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Monday night for MDZ008-011-508. VA . Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ503. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ025-026-029-036>040-050-051-504-507-508. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ057. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ027-028-030-031-501-505. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for VAZ052>055-502-506. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for VAZ054. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for VAZ056. WV . Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Monday for WVZ505. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for WVZ506. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for WVZ050>053-055-502-504. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for WVZ501-503. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530- 536-542. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-538.

SYNOPSIS . BRO NEAR TERM . BRO SHORT TERM . BRO LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . BRO/KLW MARINE . BRO/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BRO/LFR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 10 mi51 min NNE 4.1G7 18°F 37°F1028.8 hPa (+0.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi81 min ENE 2.9 17°F 1028 hPa6°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 32 mi51 min NNE 4.1G6 19°F 38°F1028.4 hPa (+0.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 33 mi51 min NE 8G11 16°F 42°F1028.6 hPa (-0.6)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi51 min NNE 8.9G11 16°F 1029.1 hPa (-0.6)
44063 - Annapolis 34 mi33 min ENE 16G19 18°F 37°F1028.8 hPa
FSNM2 34 mi51 min NNE 8.9G11 15°F 1028 hPa (+0.0)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi51 min ENE 11G12 19°F 37°F1029.6 hPa (-0.3)
CPVM2 37 mi51 min 20°F 5°F
NCDV2 47 mi51 min N 1.9G5.1 18°F 39°F1027.6 hPa (+0.0)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 47 mi51 min NE 1G1.9 14°F 35°F1029.1 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last 24 hrN7
G11
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G14
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N5
G10
N6
G12
N6
G10
N4
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NE3
G6
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NW1
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N6
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G15
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2 days
ago
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G7
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G5
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NW2
NW2

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
College Park Airport, MD9 mi56 minN 0 miFair14°F-1°F52%1028.8 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA10 mi59 minNE 910.00 miA Few Clouds18°F-0°F45%1028.8 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD12 mi55 minNE 310.00 miFair12°F1°F61%1030.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD17 mi55 minNNE 610.00 miFair14°F2°F60%1028.6 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD18 mi56 minNNE 310.00 miFair14°F5°F67%1029.1 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA19 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair17°F0°F48%1029.2 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA19 mi59 minNNE 310.00 miFair15°F2°F56%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGS

Wind History from CGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrN5N8N7
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N6W9W8SW7SW4W5W90SW4W3SW3SW40W3SW3000000
1 day ago00N5N6N7
G15
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G20
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N5N5N5N4N5N7N9N7
2 days ago000000000000000000000000

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:44 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:46 PM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet
12
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0.5
1
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2
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-0
3
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0.2
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0.8
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1.4
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1.9
7
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2.2
8
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2.3
9
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1.9
10
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1.4
11
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0.8
12
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0.3
1
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0.1
2
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-0
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0.3
4
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0.9
5
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1.6
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2.2
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2.6
8
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2.6
9
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2.4
10
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1.9
11
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1.3


Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:54 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:32 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:39 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:41 PM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C., Tide feet
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0.5
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1.9
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1.9
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1.3
11
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0.7
12
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0.3
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0
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0
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0.3
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1
5
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1.7
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2.3
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2.6
8
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2.6
9
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2.3
10
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1.8
11
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1.3


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