Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:42 AM   Moonset 7:13 PM

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FXUS63 KEAX 072318 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 618 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather threat Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The main threats are large hail and gusty winds, however a isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

This afternoon, a glancing blow from a surface ridge of high pressure passing mostly to the south is providing dry weather.
However, the dry weather will be shortlived. Broad upper troughing exists over the northern Plains. Tonight, a shortwave rounding the base of the trough will move across the central Plains forcing a cold front towards the area. Around sunrise tomorrow morning the shortwave and the associated cold front will move into the area as a LLJ also noses into the area. This will spark convection during the morning hours over the southern and eastern CWA These storms will have the potential to be severe particularly if the NAM solution with 3000-3500J/Kg of MUCAPE comes to fruition. The ascent associated with the LLJ will initially have large hail as the main threat however, storms are expected to become linear and transition to a damaging wind threat during the morning hours. In addition with storms developing in the vicinity of a triple point tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. Storms will shift east of the CWA by early afternoon with highs rising into the mid to upper 70s. Thursday the upper level trough that was over the northern Plains will move into the Great Lakes region. A vort max rounding the base of the trough will move through the area producing diurnal storms and showers.
Cold air advection will keep highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thursday.

Friday and Saturday the area will be under northwest flow aloft however, with no disturbances in the flow quiet weather is expected through this period. Highs Friday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s before rising into the low to mid 70s Saturday. Sunday a upper level trough will dig into the Great Lakes region forcing a back door cold front into the forecast area. This will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
This front will remains stall across the area on Monday as a weak upper level trough move through the region continuing storm chances.
Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions expected through the evening and overnight.
Tomorrow morning, there is a low chance (~25%) for low MVFR ceilings. Have added mention of 2500 FT ceilings to account for this potential and if chances increase, the forecast can be adjusted lower. Winds are gusty from the southwest as of the 23Z observations. These should diminish quickly this evening and become light and variable overnight. Winds increase from the south to southeast tomorrow morning, helping bring the moisture/ lower clouds into the area, ahead of the next front. That front may trigger a few showers, though the bulk of activity looks to be east of the terminals. Winds then shift to the west behind the front early tomorrow afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,