Wednesday, September22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Severna Park, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:04PM Wednesday September 22, 2021 10:35 PM EDT (02:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:11PMMoonset 7:21AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 737 Pm Edt Wed Sep 22 2021
.gale warning in effect through Thursday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers this evening, then showers and scattered tstms after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Pm Edt Wed Sep 22 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will push through the region through Thursday. High pressure will build in from the west Friday into Saturday. Another cold front may cross the region Saturday night. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday night into Friday and again late Saturday or early Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Severna Park, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 230138 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 938 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front associated with an area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to shift eastward this evening into tomorrow resulting in periods of heavy rainfall, gusty showers, and embedded thunderstorms. The front will move through the region Thursday as high pressure returns Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. The slow moving cold front has gradually made its way through western sections of the Alleghenies. A fairly tight gradient has been observed in recent data with 10 to 15 degree temperature falls in the wake of the frontal passage. Anomalous moisture continues to pump northward ahead of this boundary with precipitable waters around 2.00 inches (observed by the 00Z KIAD sounding). Quasi-unidirectional southerly flow is noted through 300-mb which has led the front to stall at times. As such, hefty rainfall amounts will continue with hourly rates nearing 2 inches at times, particularly around the Blue Ridge Mountains given local orographic enhancements. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for areas west of U.S. 15 through tonight with another 2 to 4 inches possible across the Blue Ridge. The 00Z SPC mesoanalysis shows around 250-500 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE which has been enough to trigger a few lightning strikes here and there. The mentioned line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually drift eastward overnight, reaching the I-95 corridor near daybreak.

In terms of convective potential, the Thursday early to mid morning hours could be quite interesting in terms of hazards. With a surface CAPE values approaching 500 to around 1000 J/Kg and low level helicity values around 100-200, could see a QLCS- like convective line developing with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. However the possibility of a few embedded tornadoes still remains on the table as well. Given FFG is around 1-2 inches over the Baltimore and DC metro areas, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect across these regions. Moreover, there is a potential of training convection during the early morning hours Thursday as a result of the already saturated conditions and high PWAT values which could easily cause instances of flash flooding.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The front is expected to clear the region by Thursday afternoon as high pressure begins to build back into the region for Friday and into the weekend. In its wake, much cooler temperatures are expected overnight, with lows dipping into the upper 40s to mid 50s (with lower values closer to 40 out west).

Dry and seasonably cool on Friday with highs in the low to mid 70s as high pressure builds towards the region. This will continue into Friday night as well, with temps even a touch cooler than Thursday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An amplified but fairly progressive pattern still looks to dominate this weekend through the first half of next week. Surface high pressure will be situated southwest of the area Saturday, which should provide dry weather much of the day along with slightly below normal temperatures. A potent shortwave trough and accompanying moisture-starved surface front will approach Saturday evening, then cross Saturday night. Shower chances look to remain confined to near and west of the Allegheny Front.

Surface high pressure will expand across the area Sunday and Monday. Dry weather is expected with seasonable temperatures, with Monday slightly warmer due to return flow.

Model solutions diverge by Tuesday in handling the timing and amplitude of the next shortwave trough, though trends have been more amplified which raises the chance for showers or even thunderstorms.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Winds will remain southerly tonight with occasional gusts up to 20 to 25 knots in some of the heftier showers.

Heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across KCHO and KMRB during the overnight hours as the cold front slowly moves eastward, to where IFR conditions and perhaps periods if LIFR are possible. This line of heavier showers and thunderstorms is expected to quickly move eastward during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, impacting KIAD and KDCA by daybreak, before reaching KBWI and KMTN shortly thereafter. Winds will then shift from the south to north by mid morning as the front pushes through the area.

VFR conditions return for Thursday afternoon night through Friday as high pressure builds towards the area. VFR conditions expected this weekend. Weak frontal passage will likely result in a wind shift from south to west Saturday night.

MARINE. Gale Warnings continue through the early afternoon Thursday for the lower Tidal Potomac and the Chesapeake Bay. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the upper and middle Tidal Potomac. As a strong cold front continues to track eastward, gusty showers and thunderstorms are likely where the issuance of SMWs may be required, and even the potential for an isolated waterspout.

Northerly winds are expected to develop after the front moves through the region by Thursday afternoon and persist into Friday. Additional SCA may be required Friday.

SCA gusts possible in S channeling ahead of a front Sat PM before becoming NW with SCA gusts possible thru Sun.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Anomalies have been steadily increasing over the the last 6 to 12 hours. Widespread minor tidal flooding has already been observed with moderate flooding occurring at Annapolis. These conditions remain in place during the next couple of tidal cycles as water levels remain very elevated.

Uncertainty remains as to when and how quickly water levels drop behind a frontal passage later Thursday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Flash Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon for DCZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for DCZ001. MD . Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ001-003-004- 501-502. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Thursday for MDZ014. Flash Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon for MDZ005-006-008-011-503>508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for MDZ011. VA . Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ025>031- 036>040-501-503>505-507-508. Flash Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon for VAZ053-054-506. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for VAZ054. WV . Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ050>053-055- 501>506. MARINE . Flash Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon for ANZ535. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534-537>543. Gale Warning until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534-537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ535-536.

SYNOPSIS . SOUZA NEAR TERM . SOUZA/BRO SHORT TERM . SOUZA LONG TERM . DHOF AVIATION . SOUZA/BRO/DHOF MARINE . SOUZA/BRO/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DHOF/BRO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi66 min ESE 12 G 16 77°F 78°F1010.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi42 min SE 16 G 21 75°F 77°F1 ft1013.1 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi66 min 78°F 71°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi66 min SSE 17 G 19 77°F 1010.8 hPa
FSNM2 11 mi66 min SSE 16 G 21 77°F 1011.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi66 min S 8 G 13 77°F 78°F1010.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi36 min ESE 22 G 24 77°F 77°F1011.6 hPa (+0.0)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi66 min SSE 8 G 11 77°F 77°F1011.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi66 min SW 8 71°F 1011 hPa70°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi66 min SE 7 G 14 75°F 78°F1010.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi42 min SSE 19 G 27 75°F 77°F2 ft1012 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi66 min 77°F 77°F1012 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi66 min SE 22 G 24 78°F 1011.3 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi42 minSE 14 G 2310.00 miLight Rain77°F71°F82%1011.4 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi42 minSE 7 G 1510.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1010.9 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD11 mi41 minSE 510.00 miOvercast72°F72°F100%1012.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi51 minSE 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F72°F83%1012.2 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi61 minSE 410.00 miOvercast72°F70°F94%1010.8 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi40 minSE 1010.00 miFair72°F72°F99%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE10E8E8E7E7E5E7E5E4NE4E5E6SE7E7SE6SE6SE4SE6E7E12E9E8E7SE12
2 days agoSE13SE11SE7S5SE7S3CalmNW3CalmCalmE4E7E6E6SE4SE3E6SE11SE12E12E13E11E11E9

Tide / Current Tables for Brewer Point, Maryland
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Brewer Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:13 AM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:41 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:41 PM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.40.50.70.91.11.21.110.80.60.50.30.30.40.60.81.11.21.21.110.8

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:46 AM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:55 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:51 AM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.400.40.70.80.60.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.400.50.810.90.60.2-0.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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