Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Severna Park, MD
May 5, 2024 9:13 AM EDT (13:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:33 AM Moonset 4:23 PM |
ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 734 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm edt this afternoon - .
Today - SE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning. Rain or areas of drizzle this morning, then rain likely this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue - E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Tue night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu - SE winds 10 kt - .becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 734 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into tonight for portions of the waters. Additional small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters by the middle of the week.
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into tonight for portions of the waters. Additional small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters by the middle of the week.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KLWX 050800 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active pattern will continue through mid-week as multiple disturbances pass through the area. A cold front will move through toward the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Current water vapor imagery shows a well defined mid-level shortwave tracking eastward across Ontario, with upper level ridging retreating eastward across New England. At lower levels, high pressure remains in place across northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Easterly flow around the high is maintaining a cold-air damming wedge to the east of the Appalachians. Warm/moist advection atop the CAD wedge is producing a large precipitation shield that extends from the Carolinas northward to Upstate NY. Much of the forecast area is experiencing a steady light rainfall at the moment, and this is expected to continue through the remainder of the overnight hours.
As we move through the day, the area of high pressure over New England will start to shift eastward as the upper trough builds eastward across Ontario and Quebec. In response to the high shifting further east, winds will start to turn southeasterly and then eventually southerly, which should allow the CAD wedge to start to erode, and steadier precipitation to wind down. A steady rain should continue to the east of the Blue Ridge through the morning hours.
The steadier rain could potentially linger a bit into the afternoon to the east of I-95. While steadier rain will move out, the afternoon hours should remain mostly cloudy to cloudy to the east of the Blue Ridge. To the west of the Blue Ridge, some breaks in the cloud cover may be able to develop. As a result, some instability may develop to the west of the Blue Ridge, which may potentially allow a few thunderstorms to develop within a lee trough later this afternoon. The greatest chance for a storm during the mid- late afternoon hours looks to be between the Allegheny Front and I- 81. High temperatures today should generally be in the 60s to near 70 to the east of the Blue Ridge, with lower to middle 70s to the west of the Blue Ridge.
Conditions should dry out overnight, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. If any breaks in the cloud cover are able to develop, fog may develop overnight, given weak low-level flow and ample moisture in place at low-levels following ongoing rainfall. Temperatures will remain mild overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A largely convectively generated disturbance (by ongoing storms across the Southern Plains) will drift through the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys toward the area on Monday. The day should start out dry, but mostly cloudy for most. As the disturbance drifts toward the area, low-level moisture will be drawn northward into the area in southerly flow as greater mid-upper level moisture simultaneously advects into the area aloft.
Daytime heating will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s, which when coupled with the increasing moisture will lead to the development of some surface based instability. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible Monday afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected to be across the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central Virginia, where low- level convergence is expected to be maximized. Model soundings show around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, along with relatively moist profiles and weak flow through the lower half of the troposphere. Such an environment could lead to slow moving, heavy rainfall producing storms, especially from the Shenandoah Valley into Central Virginia. 00z CAMs show isolated areas of 2-5 inches of rainfall across those locations Monday afternoon, which potentially raises concerns for flash flooding. With the disturbance forcing the precipitation being largely convectively generated, that makes predictability a bit lower than normal at this time range, so things could potentially change. However, we'll continue to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall Monday afternoon.
Additional showers and thunderstorms appear possible again on Tuesday as a disturbance tracks into the Great Lakes. Much like Monday, high temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Soundings again show relatively saturated profiles along with some surface based instability, so storms may once again be heavy rainfall producers.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue by Wednesday, with an approaching cold front from the west. The precip chances will increase from west to east later in the day on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the lower elevations and 70s for the mountains. Winds out of the west will be gusting to 15 to 20 knots throughout the afternoon. Precipitation chances increase overnight Wednesday and through the day on Thursday as the front continues to approach the area. Given the increasing instability ahead of the front, a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible with the frontal passage on Thursday. Additionally, some isolated instances of flooding will be possible with the continuous prolonged batches of precipitation over just a few days. Still a lot of uncertainty pertaining to timing, intensity and antecedent conditions. Highs on Thursday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas.
Behind the front on Friday, precipitation will likely linger around with highs in the 70s for the lower elevations and 60s in the mountains. Northwest winds will remain elevated with gusts getting into the 15 to 25 knots range, with the higher amounts along the higher elevations. Lingering light showers may persist into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 60s for most areas with 50s in the mountains.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR and rainy conditions remain in place at all terminals early this morning. The steady rain should wind down during the late morning/early afternoon hours, with a few showers potentially lingering through the afternoon. Additional thunderstorms may potentially develop across western MD and the eastern WV Panhandle this afternoon, potentially impacting MRB. IFR ceiling are expected to persist through much if not all of the day, although some locations could go MVFR for a few hours this afternoon. Winds today will be easterly to start, and then trend southeasterly and eventually southerly as the day wears on. IFR ceilings and fog look to build back in tonight.
Gradual improvement back to VFR conditions is expected on Monday. An afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm may be possible at any of the terminals, with CHO standing the greatest chance to see impacts. Winds will be light and somewhat variable Monday.
Prevailing VFR conditions continue into Tuesday, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible once again. Winds will turn southerly on Tuesday, but remain relatively light.
Mainly VFR conditions for the terminals on Wednesday with increasing chances of sub-VFR ceilings by Wednesday night into Thursday as precipitation begins to track across the area. Winds out of the west will continue to gust out of the west.
MARINE
Winds will start out easterly today, before gradually turning southeasterly and then southerly by later this afternoon. SCAs remain in effect for the wider waters through the day today. SCAs may potentially need to be extended a bit into the overnight hours in channeled southerly flow. Thereafter, sub-SCA magnitude is expected on both Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible both Monday and Tuesday. Any storms that move over the waters could lead to the issuance of SMWs.
SCA conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with increasing pressure gradient over the waters. Additionally, an SMW may be needed for any stronger thunderstorms that cross the waters Thursday afternoon and evening.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow will continue to usher in minor to moderate tidal flooding at the more sensitive locations along the Chesapeake Bay through Monday morning. Winds will begin to turn more out of the southwest on Monday with slow improvements in coastal flooding through midweek. Additional periods of coastal flooding are possible into Wednesday.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ530-536-541.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ531- 532-538>540-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533- 534-537-543.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active pattern will continue through mid-week as multiple disturbances pass through the area. A cold front will move through toward the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Current water vapor imagery shows a well defined mid-level shortwave tracking eastward across Ontario, with upper level ridging retreating eastward across New England. At lower levels, high pressure remains in place across northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Easterly flow around the high is maintaining a cold-air damming wedge to the east of the Appalachians. Warm/moist advection atop the CAD wedge is producing a large precipitation shield that extends from the Carolinas northward to Upstate NY. Much of the forecast area is experiencing a steady light rainfall at the moment, and this is expected to continue through the remainder of the overnight hours.
As we move through the day, the area of high pressure over New England will start to shift eastward as the upper trough builds eastward across Ontario and Quebec. In response to the high shifting further east, winds will start to turn southeasterly and then eventually southerly, which should allow the CAD wedge to start to erode, and steadier precipitation to wind down. A steady rain should continue to the east of the Blue Ridge through the morning hours.
The steadier rain could potentially linger a bit into the afternoon to the east of I-95. While steadier rain will move out, the afternoon hours should remain mostly cloudy to cloudy to the east of the Blue Ridge. To the west of the Blue Ridge, some breaks in the cloud cover may be able to develop. As a result, some instability may develop to the west of the Blue Ridge, which may potentially allow a few thunderstorms to develop within a lee trough later this afternoon. The greatest chance for a storm during the mid- late afternoon hours looks to be between the Allegheny Front and I- 81. High temperatures today should generally be in the 60s to near 70 to the east of the Blue Ridge, with lower to middle 70s to the west of the Blue Ridge.
Conditions should dry out overnight, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. If any breaks in the cloud cover are able to develop, fog may develop overnight, given weak low-level flow and ample moisture in place at low-levels following ongoing rainfall. Temperatures will remain mild overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A largely convectively generated disturbance (by ongoing storms across the Southern Plains) will drift through the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys toward the area on Monday. The day should start out dry, but mostly cloudy for most. As the disturbance drifts toward the area, low-level moisture will be drawn northward into the area in southerly flow as greater mid-upper level moisture simultaneously advects into the area aloft.
Daytime heating will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s, which when coupled with the increasing moisture will lead to the development of some surface based instability. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible Monday afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected to be across the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central Virginia, where low- level convergence is expected to be maximized. Model soundings show around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, along with relatively moist profiles and weak flow through the lower half of the troposphere. Such an environment could lead to slow moving, heavy rainfall producing storms, especially from the Shenandoah Valley into Central Virginia. 00z CAMs show isolated areas of 2-5 inches of rainfall across those locations Monday afternoon, which potentially raises concerns for flash flooding. With the disturbance forcing the precipitation being largely convectively generated, that makes predictability a bit lower than normal at this time range, so things could potentially change. However, we'll continue to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall Monday afternoon.
Additional showers and thunderstorms appear possible again on Tuesday as a disturbance tracks into the Great Lakes. Much like Monday, high temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Soundings again show relatively saturated profiles along with some surface based instability, so storms may once again be heavy rainfall producers.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue by Wednesday, with an approaching cold front from the west. The precip chances will increase from west to east later in the day on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the lower elevations and 70s for the mountains. Winds out of the west will be gusting to 15 to 20 knots throughout the afternoon. Precipitation chances increase overnight Wednesday and through the day on Thursday as the front continues to approach the area. Given the increasing instability ahead of the front, a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible with the frontal passage on Thursday. Additionally, some isolated instances of flooding will be possible with the continuous prolonged batches of precipitation over just a few days. Still a lot of uncertainty pertaining to timing, intensity and antecedent conditions. Highs on Thursday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas.
Behind the front on Friday, precipitation will likely linger around with highs in the 70s for the lower elevations and 60s in the mountains. Northwest winds will remain elevated with gusts getting into the 15 to 25 knots range, with the higher amounts along the higher elevations. Lingering light showers may persist into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 60s for most areas with 50s in the mountains.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR and rainy conditions remain in place at all terminals early this morning. The steady rain should wind down during the late morning/early afternoon hours, with a few showers potentially lingering through the afternoon. Additional thunderstorms may potentially develop across western MD and the eastern WV Panhandle this afternoon, potentially impacting MRB. IFR ceiling are expected to persist through much if not all of the day, although some locations could go MVFR for a few hours this afternoon. Winds today will be easterly to start, and then trend southeasterly and eventually southerly as the day wears on. IFR ceilings and fog look to build back in tonight.
Gradual improvement back to VFR conditions is expected on Monday. An afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm may be possible at any of the terminals, with CHO standing the greatest chance to see impacts. Winds will be light and somewhat variable Monday.
Prevailing VFR conditions continue into Tuesday, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible once again. Winds will turn southerly on Tuesday, but remain relatively light.
Mainly VFR conditions for the terminals on Wednesday with increasing chances of sub-VFR ceilings by Wednesday night into Thursday as precipitation begins to track across the area. Winds out of the west will continue to gust out of the west.
MARINE
Winds will start out easterly today, before gradually turning southeasterly and then southerly by later this afternoon. SCAs remain in effect for the wider waters through the day today. SCAs may potentially need to be extended a bit into the overnight hours in channeled southerly flow. Thereafter, sub-SCA magnitude is expected on both Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible both Monday and Tuesday. Any storms that move over the waters could lead to the issuance of SMWs.
SCA conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with increasing pressure gradient over the waters. Additionally, an SMW may be needed for any stronger thunderstorms that cross the waters Thursday afternoon and evening.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow will continue to usher in minor to moderate tidal flooding at the more sensitive locations along the Chesapeake Bay through Monday morning. Winds will begin to turn more out of the southwest on Monday with slow improvements in coastal flooding through midweek. Additional periods of coastal flooding are possible into Wednesday.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ530-536-541.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ531- 532-538>540-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533- 534-537-543.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 8 mi | 55 min | E 11G | 58°F | 68°F | 30.16 | ||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 10 mi | 49 min | SE 16G | 55°F | 63°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44043 - Patapsco, MD | 11 mi | 49 min | ESE 18G | 55°F | 62°F | 1 ft | ||
| CBCM2 | 11 mi | 55 min | ESE 11G | 57°F | 65°F | 30.15 | 56°F | |
| CPVM2 | 11 mi | 55 min | 57°F | 57°F | ||||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 11 mi | 55 min | ESE 5.1G | 56°F | ||||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 14 mi | 55 min | E 6G | 56°F | 68°F | |||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 14 mi | 73 min | ESE 12G | 57°F | 30.20 | |||
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 20 mi | 55 min | ESE 7G | 55°F | 30.17 | |||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 21 mi | 103 min | SE 4.1 | 58°F | 30.15 | 57°F | ||
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 28 mi | 55 min | N 1G | 57°F | 69°F | 30.15 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 36 mi | 49 min | ESE 7.8G | 57°F | 63°F | 1 ft | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 43 mi | 55 min | SE 8G | 60°F | 64°F | 30.18 | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 47 mi | 55 min | ENE 12G | 62°F | 30.17 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL THURGOOD MARSHALL,MD | 9 sm | 19 min | E 05 | 4 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 55°F | 55°F | 100% | 30.16 |
| KFME TIPTON,MD | 10 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 54°F | 94% | 30.19 | |
| KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD | 20 sm | 23 min | N 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 55°F | 55°F | 100% | 30.16 |
| KMTN MARTIN STATE,MD | 20 sm | 20 min | E 08 | 4 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 55°F | 55°F | 100% | 30.20 |
| KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD | 24 sm | 18 min | SE 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Drizzle | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 30.12 |
Brewer Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:49 AM EDT 1.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:45 AM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT 0.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:23 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:23 PM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:49 AM EDT 1.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:45 AM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT 0.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:23 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:23 PM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Brewer Point, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:23 AM EDT 1.03 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:32 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:55 AM EDT -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:18 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT 0.60 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:22 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:37 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:44 PM EDT -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:23 AM EDT 1.03 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:32 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:55 AM EDT -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:18 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT 0.60 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:22 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:37 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:44 PM EDT -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.8 |
| 10 am |
| -0.9 |
| 11 am |
| -0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.6 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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