Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:48PM Monday September 27, 2021 11:52 PM EDT (03:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:37PMMoonset 1:14PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1005 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Tuesday...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms early in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms late. SWell mainly from the sw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and early morning, then becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 9 seconds, becoming mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1005 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday. After that, a broad surface high will move southeastward towards new england and the mid-atlantic for the remainder of the week. An area of low pressure may move into the region into next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon , NJ
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location: 39.11, -74.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 280051 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 851 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday. After that, a broad surface high will move southeastward towards New England and the mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the week. An area of low pressure may move into the region into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Not many changes were needed, just a couple tweaks to temperatures and winds. Overall, quiet conditions will continue as high pressure has shifted offshore of the southeast coast and our area remains underneath surface return flow. Southwest or south winds will be mostly 5 to 10 mph overnight, a bit higher right along the shore.

A pre-frontal/lee-side trough will strengthen across the area overnight. Meanwhile, a short wave will approach the area from the west through daybreak Tuesday. The enhanced convergence could lead to an increase in showers across portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey overnight and toward daybreak. Any thunderstorms should wait to develop until after daybreak.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/. There is two rounds of potential showers and thunderstorms expected during the day Tuesday. The first round of showers will be ongoing across portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey during the morning hours. There is also some weak instability during the morning time, so there is also a chance of thunderstorms in the morning. These showers and thunderstorms will be associated with the pre-frontal trough and the lead short wave/vorticity impulse.

A second round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop during the afternoon and continue into the evening hours. This round of showers and thunderstorms will be associated with the approaching cold front and the secondary short wave/vorticity impulse. Instability is forecast to increase through the day across much of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland where CAPE values could build to 1000-2000 J/kg. There is also a fair amount of shear forecast as well with 25-30 knots across much of the area underneath 700-500 mb flow of 35-40 knots. DCAPE values of around 800 J/kg could help to enhance locally strong downbursts for a few stronger to severe wind gusts. There is also a chance of at least small hail as the freezing level/wet-bulb 0 height will lowering as well. Precipitable water values will be around 1.50 inches, so some locally heavy downpours will be possible. However, the showers and storms should be moving at a steady enough pace to preclude any significant flooding concerns.

The showers and thunderstorms will move offshore during the evening hours as the cold front moves across the area. The rest of Tuesday night will be dry behind the cold front as wind shift to the north to northwest.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A closed upper low will meander across southern Quebec, New England, and the Canadian Maritimes through Friday as ridging holds across the Midwest. This will result in an Omega blocking pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS. Guidance still varies in how quickly this blocking pattern will break down into the weekend, but this will ultimately keep Hurricane Sam well out to sea at our latitude as it begins racing poleward Friday and Saturday. Latitudes further north appear to be in the path of Sam or the remnants of. At the surface, weak and cool high pressure will remain entrenched across the region through at least Friday and likely into Saturday.

Long story short, this will be a largely quiet and tranquil period of weather for the region, at least through Friday/Saturday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with highs mainly in the low 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. The exception will be the Poconos and the higher terrain of NW NJ where highs may not get out of the 50s Thursday and Friday and the first 30s of the season could be experienced Thursday night. Expect northwesterly winds around 5-10 mph along with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies.

Cloud coverage looks like its going to increase into the weekend. Given that a consensus in guidance suggests this pattern will begin to break down at that time, we have maintained the slight chance of showers for Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR conditions expected. Southwest or south winds from 5 to 10 knots or less. There is a chance of low-level wind shear for KRDG,KABE and KTTN. Very marginal however.

Tuesday . Generally VFR conditions. A cold front will cross the area thru the day and some lower CIGS/VSBYS are possible, but not confid enough of low conditions for inclusion in TAFS attm. MVFR possible but not certain. Southwest winds will turn West during the afternoon. Tstm possible, but coverage low. Low/Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night . Showers and thunderstorms should end during the evening hours by 03z. VFR conditions are expected overnight. North to northwest winds 5-10 knots or less. High confidence.

Outlook..

Wednesday through Saturday . Prevailing VFR. Some patchy fog possible in the pre-dawn hours. Winds north to northwesterly around 5-10 kts during the daytime and 5 kts or less at night. High confidence overall.

MARINE. Tonight . Small Craft Advisory remains in place for the coastal waters adjacent to New Jersey, and has also been expanded to include the waters adjacent to Delaware as well as winds are expected to gust 25-30 knots this evening and overnight.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . Winds drop below advisory levels early Tuesday morning and should remain below advisory levels through the remainder of the day. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon and into the evening hours which could lead to locally higher winds and waves.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . Sub-advisory conditions expected until maybe Saturday. Winds northerly around 10-15 kts. Seas 2-4 feet . maybe some 5 foot swells this weekend as Sam passes well to our east.

Rip Currents .

A LOW risk of dangerous rip currents is expected for Tue and Wed. Showers and a few tstms expected Tue.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Kruzdlo Near Term . Robertson/PO Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Kruzdlo Aviation . Kruzdlo/Robertson/PO Marine . Kruzdlo/Robertson/PO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 15 mi53 min SSW 9.9 G 14 71°F 71°F1013.8 hPa (-0.6)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 22 mi53 min SW 20 G 23 1014 hPa (-0.7)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 24 mi53 min 72°F 72°F1014.1 hPa (+0.0)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 30 mi53 min SW 9.9 G 13 70°F 71°F1013.9 hPa (-0.8)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi83 min SSE 6 70°F 1014 hPa57°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi53 min SSW 15 G 17 71°F 72°F1013.8 hPa (-0.7)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 37 mi83 min SSW 5.1 68°F 1014 hPa60°F
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 46 mi33 min SSW 19 G 23 72°F 72°F1014.8 hPa67°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ11 mi57 minSSW 810.00 miFair69°F62°F78%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW4W5W6W6W5W4W4W4W8W7W8SW6S10S12S16
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2 days agoCalmCalmN4CalmCalmN4N3CalmN5N7N8N65Calm46W63CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ingram Thorofare, New Jersey
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Ingram Thorofare
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Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:08 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.43.22.61.91.20.90.91.31.92.73.33.73.93.83.32.51.81.41.11.11.31.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Dennis Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Dennis Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:16 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:37 AM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:39 PM EDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:37 PM EDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.44.14.44.33.72.921.41.31.62.33.144.85.35.34.94.1321.41.31.6

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