Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Hall, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 6:27PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 303 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers and scattered tstms.
Tonight..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 303 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will pass through the region this afternoon. Sporadic gale conditions are also possible this afternoon within gusty showers. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, high pressure returns from Monday through Wednesday. Small craft conditions will likely linger into portions of Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Hall, MD
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location: 39.15, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 160814 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 414 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will follow for much of next week before another cold front moves through toward the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of early this morning, strong cold front was located northwest of the area, stretching from western New York southwest across northwest PA, southeast Ohio and central Kentucky. High pressure stretches across the western Atlantic, with another high pressure centered over northern Texas. Aloft, a ridge extends nortward over the western Atlantic towards New England, with a sharp shortwave over the western Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley. Another ridge is centered over the southwestern US.

Eastern areas remain relatively clear presently, but clouds are streaming northeastward across our western zones. Scattered showers are further west, mainly over central and western West Virginia into western PA, with the main frontal squall line near the front itself.

For today, expect warm, southerly flow to help bring temps back to near 80 for much of the region, especially east of the Blue Ridge, before the front reaches us. This will help elevate CAPE, not particularly high, but enough to be tapped by the approaching front. This front all by itself packs a punch, with gusts likely to reach 30-40 mph with it, and any stronger cells have a good shot to bring stronger winds with it. Best coincidence of CAPE and shear looks to be over northeastern MD, where SPC has placed a slight risk of severe weather, but marginal risk now exists across the entire region. Best timing will be before noon in the Alleghenies, shortly afternoon along the I-81 corridor, and 2PM towards sunset east of the Blue Ridge. Front and storms likely don't clear the bay until after sunset. Severe weather with the front itself looks most likely, but a burst of wind advisory gusts can't be completely ruled out for an hour or two just behind the front even outside of the squalls.

Temperature drop will also be drastic, with temps likely falling 10-15 degrees within a couple hours, perhaps even in the first hour, after the frontal passage. Rainfall amounts don't look excessive, but totals in excess of a half inch could occur in heavier cells. However, no flood risk is anticipated given dry antecedent conditions and relatively rapid storm motion.

Tonight, high pressure will slowly build eastward to our southwest, with a strong gradient remaining in place. Much lower dew points will result in drying, but also significant cooling, with lows into the 40s in many areas. Isolated upslope showers may occur over the Allegheny Front, but elsewhere, it should stay dry with clearing.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will slowly build into the area from the southwest Sunday through Monday night. The gradient will be most noticeable Sunday, resulting in relatively cool temps, especially when combined with winds gusting 20-30 mph, despite sunshine. Winds will gradually diminish Monday as the gradient relaxes, and temps may even creep up a tad, so Sunday will definitely be the most fall-like day. Lows both nights likely fall into the 40s in many spots, with the coolest locations into the 30s. Patchy frost may occur in the very coldest spots, but no frost/freeze headlines are anticipated. This is rather unusual for so late in the season.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Ridging will build over the region through the middle of next week leading to a warming trend. Next upper level trough and asssociated cold front will swing through the area during the second half of next week bringing the next chance of showers to the area Thursday. Cooler and more seasonable weather is expected for next weekend.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Mainly VFR presently, but showers and storms with an approaching front likely result in sub-VFR, possibly brief IFR, conditions this afternoon, along with gusty winds perhaps exceeding 40 knots briefly. VFR returns by tonight and lasts thru Monday night, but winds may occasionally gust up to 30 knots at least thru Sunday afternoon, diminishing slowly thereafter.

No sig wx expected Tue through Wed.

MARINE. Increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in widespread SCA conditions by midday, with a strong cold front and squal line then possibly bringing special marine warning conditions with gusts over 40 knots possible this afternoon into the early evening. SCA conditions continue thru Sunday and possibly linger in spots thru Monday as much cooler air builds in behind the front.

Winds will be on the downward trend Tue, but may increase again Thu afternoon ahead of next frontal passage. Some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible with next frontal passage Thu.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides remain around 1.2 ft above normal at Annapolis and it appears winds will not shift to the west in time before next high tide at 303 PM. Therefore, have extended CF.Y one more tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory may also become necessary for this afternoon's high tide at DC Waterfront, however, confidence is not high at this time since front would have already cleared the District by the time of next high tide cyle at 554 PM.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ014. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530-538-542. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ535- 536.

SYNOPSIS . RCM/LFR NEAR TERM . RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . LFR AVIATION . RCM/LFR MARINE . RCM/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . LFR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi47 min SSE 5.1G8 68°F 72°F1009.3 hPa
FSNM2 10 mi47 min S 5.1G6 69°F 1008.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi47 min S 4.1G4.1 68°F 1009 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi47 min 72°F 67°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi47 min SSE 2.9G9.9 70°F 73°F1008.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 14 mi41 min S 16G19 69°F 72°F1 ft1010.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 15 mi47 min SW 1.9G4.1 68°F 73°F1008.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 18 mi35 min SSE 20G22 71°F 72°F1009.9 hPa (-1.9)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi65 min SW 6 64°F 1009 hPa61°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 39 mi47 min 0G0 64°F 70°F1009.6 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 40 mi47 min SSE 4.1G5.1 69°F 71°F1008.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 41 mi41 min S 16G19 68°F 72°F1 ft1010.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi47 min SSE 7G8.9 69°F 71°F1009.6 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi40 minSSE 410.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1009.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi41 minS 810.00 miFair70°F63°F79%1009.2 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD17 mi41 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds65°F60°F84%1008.8 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi40 minN 04.00 miFair59°F59°F100%1009.8 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD24 mi37 minN 08.00 miA Few Clouds60°F60°F99%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S7SE6S5S8S9S10S11S10
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S7S6SE5SE4SE6SE6SE9SE10S60
1 day agoSW10
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2 days agoS3S6S5S7SE60SE3NW300E30SE4SE5S7S9S8S9S7W6S6S10
G17
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:07 AM EDT     4.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:34 PM EDT     5.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:48 PM EDT     4.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:14 AM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:43 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:03 PM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:09 PM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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