Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wilkesville, OH

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 6:39PM Saturday October 23, 2021 3:48 PM EDT (19:48 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilkesville, OH
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location: 39.18, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 231829 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 229 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure crosses today. Warm front brushes our NW counties Sunday with rain; dry elsewhere. Cold front arrives Monday with rain showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 217 PM Saturday .

Cyclonic flow is in place across the area as an upper level low meanders across northern Ontario. This feature has maintained the scattered to broken stratocumulus deck that has been in place throughout the day, but this should continue to erode through this evening as low level moisture as least briefly diminishes as a trough axis departs to the east and upper level heights rise.

Mid level cloud cover should increase overnight as a warm front shifts into the Ohio Valley as a low pressure deepens across KS, which will yield an increase in isentropic ascent. However, dry air above the surface should generally limit most precipitation activity from reaching the ground overnight other than a few light showers across western portions of the forecast area.

As the surface low moves across the central plains on Sunday, the warm front will lift northward across our area with strengthening warm air advection as the region should become fully established in the warm sector by late in the day. The strong warm air advection should allow low to mid level cloud cover to scatter out across southern portions of the area, but cloud cover should hold strong across the northern areas in closer proximity to the frontal boundary. These will also be the areas where the highest PoPs will be located with Chance/Likely PoPs for northwestern portions of the CWA and little to no PoPs for southeast WV and southwest VA, but any precipitation amounts should be light as the better moisture transport should remain outside of the forecast area. With less cloud cover and strong warm air advection, highs in the mid to upper 70s could occur across southern WV, eastern KY, and southwest VA, but more cloud cover with higher rain chances should keep temperatures cooler in portions of southeast OH and northern WV but values will still generally be above normal.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 228 PM Saturday .

As the warm front lifts north of the area, the cold front associated with the low pressure system will approach the area for Monday, leading to an increase in precipitation chances from west to east. Monday will have showers and chances for thunderstorms developing ahead of the front with a chance for some severe weather possible particularly in the afternoon and evening. Models do still differ with the timing of this system slightly, with some beginning to bring precipitation chances into the area Monday morning and others with a slightly slower progression beginning Monday afternoon.

The SPC does have most of the area in a slight risk for severe weather at this time for Monday into Monday night. Overall, model CAPE values are relatively modest for the area during the period. A few models such as the NAM do show slightly higher values than others with up to around around 900-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and around 500-600 J/kg DCAPE which could have the potential to provide some instability to the region. The NAM also shows impressive values of shear with around 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear and potentially upwards of 60 kts of 0-6 km shear possible, as well as 0- 1 km SRH values around 200-300 m2/s2. Given that one of the model solutions with higher values pans out, severe weather could be a possibility with damaging winds and perhaps a tornado possible Monday afternoon into the evening.

Monday evening, precipitation chances will begin to taper off for much of the area with upslope showers remaining along the mountains for the night.

Temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to 60s along the higher elevations. Cooler temperatures will begin settling in as the cold front crosses through the area sometime Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 228 PM Saturday .

Upslope showers are expected to continue throughout the day Tuesday, tapering off by sometime Tuesday evening as the aforementioned system moves off to the northeast. Otherwise, expecting the remainder of the area to be dry Tuesday as high pressure attempts to settle in at the surface and a brief period of upper level ridging begins to slide into the area. With temperatures expected to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s Tuesday night, there may be some potential for frost, but will continue to monitor this heading into the new week. Wednesday is expected to be dry as high pressure and upper ridging remains in place.

Models then begin to differ a lot more heading into the latter half of next week. Upper level troughing along the western half of the country will approach the area throughout the week with a closed low forming within the troughing as it makes it way toward the area. At the surface, a low pressure system is expected to move into the area from the west sometime in the Thursday night to Friday timeframe. Some models merge the upper low back into the troughing by the time it reaches the area at the end of the week while others keep the closed low going as it moves in. The GFS is much quicker to bring precipitation to the area by Thursday afternoon while the Canadian is slower, bringing it to the region Friday evening. A few models are also more progressive with this system, moving it through and out to the northeast by the weekend while others allow the system to linger around the area longer. For now, have accepted model consensus of precipitation chances for the end of the week as models differ so much at this time with how this system will affect the area.

Behind the cold front on Tuesday, temperatures are expected to be chilly and below normal. A gradual warming trend is expected mid week, with temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal, but temperatures will fall again behind the system moving in for the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 115 PM Saturday .

Recent satellite imagery shows SCT to BKN stratocu across the region with periods of MVFR ceilings possible at some terminals at the start of the TAF period, particularly for the northern half of the area. However, ceilings will gradually rise through this evening and eventually lift to VFR for all terminals.

Mid level cloud cover should be on the increase tonight as a warm front approaches the area the low level moisture increases, but conditions should remain VFR throughout the overnight hours as dry air should linger above the surface. As the warm front continues to lift northward through the area on Sunday, southerly flow will increase and the warm air advection should allow low to mid level clouds to scatter out with rising ceilings into Sunday afternoon. While a few isolated showers may develop near western terminals as the warm front lifts through, aviation impacts are not expected from this activity and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the TAF period. In addition, southerly surface winds are expected on Sunday and there might be some LLWS concerns by Sunday afternoon as a LLJ strengthens, but there was not enough confidence to include LLWS in the TAFs for this issuance.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS may develop Sunday afternoon as the low level flow strengthens above a surface inversion.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY . IFR possible in showers and storms on Monday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . RG/CG NEAR TERM . RG SHORT TERM . CG LONG TERM . CG AVIATION . RG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
OHIO U/ATHEN-ALBANY, OH7 mi74 minW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F44°F59%1016.9 hPa
Point Pleasant, Mason County Airport, WV23 mi54 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F44°F46%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUNI

Wind History from UNI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW40W3000000S3S4SW3SW4SW5SW5SW5SW9W6W9
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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