Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 5:42 PM   Moonset 3:59 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 200956 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 256 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS

Several upper troughs driving across the region this week will bring cooler temperatures, afternoon breezes, and a 10-20% chance of afternoon showers and storms mainly across the Sierra. The run up to the Memorial Day weekend will see a gradual warming trend.

DISCUSSION

This Week's Headlines:

* The week starts off cooler with below average temperatures, rebounds by mid-week, drops temporarily, then once again trends warmer late this week into the Memorial day weekend.

* Typical afternoon breezes will continue through the week with Wednesday and Saturday looking to register the higher, more enhanced breezes.

* More typical for early summer weather, there is a chance of Sierra thunder this afternoon that may repeat itself late week.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

The week starts off with cooler temperatures, some 5-10 degrees below seasonal average today. Colder more exposed areas under mostly clear skies could see overnight lows drop into the 20s for Sierra valleys with lower valleys across the Basin and Range and even some typically colder valleys near Reno-Carson City dipping close to or slightly below freezing for an hour or two prior to daybreak Tuesday morning. A short wave ridge building quickly over the region will at least bring a quick rebound in daytime highs by Wednesday that are either slightly above or near seasonal values. Look for upper 50s to 60s for Sierra valleys, and 70s to low 80s for western NV valleys.

Although the region will remain mostly dry, the only exception will be a 10-15% chance for some light showers and a storm or two this afternoon across the Sierra south of the Lake Tahoe Basin to Mono County. Showers and storms will quickly dissipate after sundown.

As the short wave ridge hastens its exit across the Great Basin through Wednesday, another short wave trough will quickly swing into northeast CA and northern NV that increases shower chances (15-30%)
mostly along the OR/NV border Tuesday night. The system will also bring that added boost of forcing to enhance afternoon westerly breezes with gusts that mixes 30-40 mph gusts into western NV valleys. Look for locally choppy surface conditions on area lakes and impacts to activities during the afternoon that are sensitive to these enhance breezes.

THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY:

As the short wave trough swings back-door like across northern CA and NV, cooler air will once again be pulled south into the region. Look for a quick dip in area temperatures to near normal or a few degrees below seasonal values Thursday. Sierra locations will see highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s with most valley locations across western NV in the low to mid 70s. Cannot rule out a shower or two along the Sierra.

Going into the holiday weekend, temperatures will continue to trend upwards. Blended guidance so far is projecting daytime highs to stay near to or slightly above seasonal normals in upper 60s for the Sierra and upper 70s for much of western NV. Although much of the region will stay dry and warmer, some ensemble simulations and blended guidance still desire to keep some shower and storm chances going. -Amanda

AVIATION

* VFR conditions are projected to continue through the forecast period. Winds will be variable less than 5 kts this morning for main terminals, then increase from the N-NE 15-20 kts this afternoon before diminishing into the evening. FL100 winds will be northerly 15-25kts, turning northeast 10-15kts after 06Z.

* Several troughs will bring periods of cooler conditions and a 10-15% chance of showers/thunderstorms mostly over the Sierra mountains throughout the week. Outside of any showers along the Eastern Sierra this afternoon and evening, VFR conditions will prevail. -Amanda

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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