Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Millington, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:06PM Sunday January 16, 2022 4:40 AM EST (09:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:48PMMoonset 6:37AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 336 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Monday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt... Becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt late. Waves 3 ft. Rain, freezing rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain and snow after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of snow and rain in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach the waters Sunday before passing through Sunday night into early Monday. Thereafter, high pressure will build along the southeast coast into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millington, MD
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location: 39.26, -75.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 160851 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 351 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over northern New York State moves offshore later today. A strong coastal storm will develop over the Southeast, then lift north along the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening, then into New England and eastern Canada Monday. A cold front passes through the region behind the departing low. Broad high pressure builds into the region Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday night through Thursday. High pressure closes out the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Arctic high pressure centered across New England early this morning will push offshore giving way to the deepening low pressure system centered across the Southeast. This system will lift NE into New England from late this afternoon into Monday. There continues to be little change among the guidance on the track of this system, so confidence continues to increase in the overall evolution of the storm. Potential hazards include strong winds, wintry precipitation, and coastal flooding. For more information on the details:

What has changed: The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to include Philadelphia, lower Bucks, Mercer, and Somerset Counties since confidence has increased that these areas will experience some freezing rain. The Wind Advisory was expanded to include Middlesex and Kent (DE) Counties. The start and end times of these were also adjusted to better match the forecast timing of the hazards.

Precipitation type: Most areas along and northwest of the I-95 corridor will start with a brief period of snow. However, precipitation is expected to quickly (within a few hours in many locations) change over to a wintry mix and eventually all rain. The only locations that may not see a change over to all rain are the southern Poconos where cold air damming could keep a very shallow below freezing layer at the surface. Consequently, have favored the NAM for temperatures especially Monday morning as it seems to be capturing the cold air damming scenario rather well.

Snow and Ice Amounts: No significant changes to the snow snow or ice amounts. Generally expecting less than an inch of snow and sleet along the I-95 corridor with a light glaze of ice less than a tenth of an inch. For areas farther north up to the I-78 corridor, generally expecting about one to three inches of snow and sleet with ice amounts up to one tenth of an inch as well. For Sussex County (NJ), expecting snow and sleet totals around two to four inches with ice amounts up to one tenth of an inch. For the southern Poconos, about three to six inches of snow is expected with ice amounts of one tenth to one quarter of an inch. Although the snow and ice amounts currently forecast in Carbon and Monroe counties don't meet winter storm warning criteria or ice storm warning criteria, we are concerned that the combination of ice on top of snow (and windy conditions too) will cause significant impacts for these areas.

Wind hazards: Strongest winds are expected to come with the easterly winds Sunday night into Monday morning. Expecting sustained winds around 20-30 mph with gusts in the 40-50 mph range. The highest wind speeds are likely to be along the coast. There remains some potential for gusts near 60 mph in these areas, but given the likely very inefficient mixing due to the robust inversion, think it is more likely to stay in the wind advisory range. Wind advisory level winds are also possible on ridge lines in the southern Poconos, but will cover this potential within the winter storm warning.

Timing: Timing has not changed much at all. It still appears that the most widespread and heaviest precipitation will come Sunday evening into very early Monday morning. Increasing confidence that the dry slot will quickly move over the region mid to late Monday morning. As for the winds, the strongest winds will be from Sunday evening for coastal Delaware and the southern NJ shore to late Saturday night for the northern NJ shore. The period of strongest winds will likely only be a 3 to 6 hour window.

Temperatures: As the system lifts north, warm air advection will result in temperatures rising for much of the region Sunday night into early Monday morning, before falling again in the wake of the occluded cold front.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure will be centered over central Pennsylvania Monday morning, and this low lifts to the north and east through the morning across New York state and into eastern Pennsylvania by late afternoon. A cold front swings through the region behind the departing low.

CAA will be underway starting in the late morning. Rain tapers off over the southern half of the forecast area, and rain mixes with and changes to snow across the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, Berks county, and northern New Jersey shortly after sunrise. Strong shortwave energy passes through the Northeast around the base of an H5 low over eastern Canada. This will keep snow chances in the forecast throughout the day for areas north and west of the Fall Line, and rain and/or snow showers down into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey. Some snow chances in the far northern zones may be enhanced by Lake Effect snow bands moving in from the north. After an inch or so of snow in the morning in the southern Poconos, less than an inch of additional snow is possible in the northern zones in the afternoon. Highs generally in the low to mid 30s with little temperature fluctuation throughout the day, and temperatures falling in the afternoon.

Strong northwest winds develop Monday afternoon as a 40-50 kt LLJ develops over the region. BUFKIT soundings show decent, but not overly strong, mixing up to about 850 mb. Generally expecting widespread gusts 40-45 mph across much of the region, and these winds could continue into much of the evening, if not until after midnight Monday night. If that jet is just a little bit stronger, or if mixing is a little bit more pronounced, max wind gusts could get up to 45-50 mph, and this would justify a Wind Advisory. For now, will hold off on issuing a Wind Advisory.

Lows Monday night drop into the 20s with wind chills in the teens.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday and departs Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A cold day on tap for Tuesday with highs in the 30s, then temperatures rebound on Wednesday into the 40s. A cold front passes through Wednesday night through Thursday morning. A quick shot of snow is possible, though it may mix with some rain over the coastal plain of New Jersey Thursday afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Some upper level energy may touch off some more snow showers on Friday, but PoPs will be low.

A coastal storm may affect the region at the end of the week or early in the weekend. Stay tuned, as models are just picking up on this system.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Initially VFR with ceilings increasing in coverage and lowering throughout the day. Ceilings lower quickly to MVFR then IFR near or after 21Z As precipitation begins moving into the area. A period of snow is likely to start near and north of PHL and I-95 with a brief period of sleet and freezing rain anticipated before changing to all rain. Mainly rain at MIV and ACY. Winds northeast to easterly around 5-10 kts, increasing slightly as the day progresses. The winds will become easterly winds 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts after 00Z, becoming southerly after 06Z and then diminishing. Very strong easterly winds just a few thousand feet above the ground will create areas of LLWS from about 00Z through 06Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Outlook .

Monday . Lingering rain, changing to snow at KRDG/KABE in the morning, and then there is the chance for rain and/or snow showers Monday afternoon. Sub-VFR in the morning, then VFR with occasional sub-VFR conditions in the afternoon. S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the morning, rapidly shifting to the W and increasing to 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt in the early afternoon. Moderate confidence overall.

Monday night . VFR. NW winds 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts, diminishing late. High confidence.

Tuesday . VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. LGT/VRB winds Tuesday night. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . VFR. S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . Sub-VFR possible in snow showers. NW winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Low confidence.

MARINE. Seas lingering around 5 feet through the pre-dawn hours, so the Small Craft Advisory will continue through 6 AM. Sub-advisory conditions are then expected through early afternoon, then easterly winds and seas begin to build quickly to gale force gusts by the late afternoon and early evening. Expect easterly winds sustained around 30-40 kts with higher gusts possible. A few storm force gusts up to 50 kts cannot be ruled out, but confidence is not high enough to issue a Storm Warning, thus the Gale Warning will remain in effect through tonight. Seas building to 9-14 feet across the ocean waters and very rough waters on Delaware Bay. The winds will become southerly in the pre-dawn hours and diminish somewhat.

Outlook .

Monday through Monday night . Gale Warning in effect for all waters. SW winds 25 to 35 kt with 40 to 45 kt gusts. Winds shift to the NW late Monday.

Tuesday . NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. A SCA will likely be needed.

Wednesday . SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. A SCA may be needed.

Thursday . NW winds 15 to 20 kt.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A persistent and increasing easterly flow will develop ahead of an approaching storm system later today and tonight. This, combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a full moon will result in a period of at least minor coastal flooding with the high tide Monday morning. Based on the latest wind forecast, the strongest surge of winds will occur mainly in the overnight, several hours shy of high tide. Winds then diminish and shift to the south as high tide approaches. As a result, the current forecast is for minor tidal flooding along the New Jersey coast, with the highest impacts over Middlesex and Monmouth counties. Will cancel the Coastal Flood Watch and replace with a Coastal Flood Advisory. Will also include Ocean county, along with the coastal strip of Ocean county, as a persistent easterly flow usually allows for a buildup in Barnegat Bay, and do not think the water will drain out prior to high tide.

In addition to the Atlantic coast, there is some potential for minor flooding on Chesapeake Bay. While model guidance is not indicating much in the way of flooding there, the overall pattern of this storm system is one which has caused coastal flooding on the Chesapeake in the past. For that reason, the tidal forecast there will also be closely monitored.

Water levels should quickly diminish by later Monday, with no further coastal flooding expected. In fact, latest indications are that strong northwest winds behind the storm could lead to concerns for blowout tides by Monday night. This will also be monitored in the event that low water products are needed.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for PAZ060>062-101-103-105. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ070-071-102-104-106. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Monday for PAZ054-055. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for NJZ007>010. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for NJZ012>014-020-026-027. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for NJZ012>014-020-026. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Monday for NJZ022>025. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ015. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for NJZ001. DE . Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Monday for DEZ002>004. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for DEZ001. MD . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ012. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Staarmann Short Term . MPS Long Term . MPS Aviation . MPS/Staarmann Marine . MPS/Staarmann Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 19 mi52 min NE 1.9G2.9 14°F 37°F1029.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 22 mi58 min NE 1G1.9 15°F 35°F1029.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 24 mi190 min NNE 5.1 1029 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 25 mi52 min 16°F 37°F1028.8 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 25 mi52 min NE 12G17 16°F 36°F1029.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 26 mi52 min SE 1.9G5.1 17°F 36°F1029.2 hPa
CPVM2 34 mi52 min 20°F 4°F
FSNM2 36 mi52 min NNE 8G9.9 15°F 1028.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi52 min NE 8G9.9 16°F 1029.2 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 38 mi46 min E 16G19 19°F 38°F1029.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 39 mi52 min NNE 5.1G6 20°F 38°F1028.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 39 mi52 min ENE 8G9.9 17°F 42°F1028.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 40 mi40 min ENE 11G12 19°F 37°F1029.6 hPa (-0.3)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 43 mi58 min ENE 14G16 1028.9 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 44 mi52 min 13°F 38°F1029.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi58 min NNE 8.9G12 19°F 35°F1028.5 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Last 24 hrNW8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE21 mi44 minN 510.00 miFair13°F4°F66%1028.9 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD23 mi42 minNNE 410.00 miFair12°F-2°F54%1029.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDOV

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNW14NW13NW10NW10N17--N15N14N15NW13N12NW11N10N8N9N9N7N8N6N8N7N7N7N5
1 day agoNW11NW10NW11NW13N14NW17
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2 days ago000000N3N3NE5E4E4E400N3NE30NE4NW8NW6N8N8N8NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Millington, Maryland
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Millington
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:22 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     0.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:44 PM EST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:21 PM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Millington, Maryland, Tide feet
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0.9
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0.5
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0.7
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0.6
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0.3
11
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-0.1
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-0.4
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-0.6
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-0.6
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-0.4
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0.1
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0.7
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1.3
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1.8
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2
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1.8
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1.5


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:29 AM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:38 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:53 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:33 AM EST     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:32 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:22 PM EST     2.15 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:03 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current, knots
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-1.1


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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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