Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 3:06 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1036 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night - .
Rest of tonight - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming S 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through Saturday night before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and Sunday night.

FXUS61 KPHI 040357 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1157 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over New England will maintain an onshore flow through the next few days. A series of cold fronts approaches from the west through the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
No significant changes to prior forecast. Will make some adjustments based on the latest obs.

The current forecast continues to remain challenging due to pesky marine layer over the Coastal Plain. An expansive ridge of high pressure is building into eastern Canada with the southwestward periphery of this feature extending back into the Mid-Atlantic. In fact guidance actually depicts this feature strengthening slightly over our area during the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile though, this ridge has resulted in easterly flow that has brought in a low deck of some marine stratus into much of NJ, DE, and even extending at times into portions of eastern PA.
Finally, there is a frontal system that's approaching from the west with some showers however, it will take some time for these showers to get into the area over the weekend as it runs up against the ridge in place. The upshot of all this is that skies are variable across the area with the marine stratus eroding back to the east while high cirrus continues over western areas.

Regardless, it will remain precip free though through the evening. Overnight, however, shortwave energy will ride over the top of the upper level ridge centered over the east and help to push showers from the west closer to the region. This could bring a few light showers into parts of Delmarva and eastern PA by daybreak. Otherwise, clouds thicken through the night with lows getting down mainly into the upper 40s to around 50.

For Saturday, low pressure moves eastward towards the Great Lakes driven by an advancing upper level trough. As this occurs, showers well ahead of it will continuing to try making inroads into our area while running up against the stubborn surface high that will be slow to move out. The upshot is some scattered showers will likely make it in at times, especially over eastern PA and Delmarva and especially getting into the second half of the day (POPs here by late day generally 40 to 60 percent).
Otherwise it will be a mostly cloudy and cool day with continuing easterly winds and highs only making it to the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Saturday night will featured continued marine flow from the east as the approaching front from the west washes out. Thus, expect areas near the coast to be mostly dry and cool, with a better chance of showers inland due to the nearby stalled front. Lows mostly in the upper 40s.

Next, stronger front approaches from the west Sunday, but its approach looks slower, so have slowed the progress of higher POPs into the area. Looks like best chance of widespread showers is late day and at night Sunday night. With the marine layer likely to hold fairly firm, chance of thunder looks minimal, and severe weather risk appears zero. Highs 50s north, 60s south, perhaps near 70 far southern DE and adjacent parts of MD.

Rain showers move out on Monday morning, though again opted for slower timing given trend. Marine layer looks like it is at least somewhat disrupted as flow turns westerly and a warm front tries to lift north, allowing temps to potentially rise to the 70s for most and near 80 southern DE/adjacent MD. Guidance now wants to generate some convection in the afternoon, and given the warmer and more humid air mass, its not out of the question we have a few stronger cells, but at this point there doesn't appear to be a significant severe wx or flood risk.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Unsettled weather continues through the week ahead. The front that lifts north thru the area Monday doesn't get far, and looks to even slide back south a little Tuesday, though at this point still looks likely mostly 70s. Another approaching shortwave and proximity of the front could spark off a shower or t-storm, but right now looks like low coverage.

Front lifts a little further north behind that shortwave Wednesday, allowing temps to rise a bit. With it remaining nearby and another front approaching from the north, the odds of some aft/eve convection increases a bit. Highs closer to 80.

Guidance is trending towards the return of a marine layer behind said front for Thursday and Friday, with a cooling trend in temps. A passing wave may produce some better shower coverage Thursday as well, so we have highest POPs in the long term on Thursday. Friday trend is a little drier but still a marine influence.

It should be noted that with the wavering front nearby all week and several weak waves, its possible the details of the forecast are notably different from how they currently appear, so check back for updates frequently. Guidance is very mixed presently.

AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Different conditions expected for each terminal tonight. For KRDG/KABE, expect VFR through 05-06Z, before becoming MVFR CIGs after 07-08Z. For KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG, expect a mixture of VFR/MVFR CIGs through 07-08Z, before becoming MVFR CIGs after 08-09Z. For KMIV/KACY, expect MVFR CIGs through 05-06Z, becoming IFR CIGs after 06Z. East winds around 3-8 kt. Low confidence, especially with the timing of lowering ceilings.

Saturday...Mainly MVFR for all terminals. There is indication a brief period of VFR CIGs are possible during the afternoon for all terminals except KMIV/KACY. Otherwise, just some scattered showers. East-Southeast winds around 8-13 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Restrictions expected with showers moving through, with CIGs as low as IFR possible.
Best chance of showers is late Sunday/Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with any showers. 20-40% chance of showers through this period.

MARINE
Seas at 44009 are subsiding to less than 5 feet, so will cancel the Small Craft Advisory that was set to expire at midnight.
Winds will continue to diminish to 10 to 15 knots and seas around 3 to 4 feet. Little change is expected on Saturday. There is the potential for some dense marine fog early Saturday morning especially south of Little Egg Inlet, otherwise, just mostly cloudy skies are expected.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines anticipated. Showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters Sunday through Sunday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Millington
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:58 AM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:03 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:25 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Millington, Maryland, Tide feet

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.05 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:21 AM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:50 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:10 AM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:54 PM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:50 PM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:53 PM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current, knots

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