Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 11:46 PM   Moonset 7:41 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 271317 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 917 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warmer temperatures are expected for the remainder of the weekend. A chance for showers and storms will return Monday into Tuesday as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. After a brief dry period of weather at mid week, an active wet period of weather will develop later Wednesday through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Few showers passing across west central Ohio will move off to the northeast late this morning. Latest trends suggest that there could be some additional showers and perhaps some thunder as weak forcing tracks across the region this afternoon and interacts with slightly unstable mid levels. That chance will primarily be to the north and west of I-71.

Entire region will be well mixed resulting in stout sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. It will be partly sunny, although there will probably be more cloudy periods than not. Forecast highs look reasonable.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Mid level ridge builds north into the southern Great Lakes for the end of the weekend. Can not rule out an isold shower or thunderstorm across the far northwest this evening - otherwise expect dry conditions overnight. Southerly winds stay up around 10 mph with mild lows generally in the lower 60s.

Firmly established in the warm sector Sunday - with a lack of forcing do not expect widespread pcpn. Temperatures to warm to highs generally in the lower 80s. These readings are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mean H5 ridge axis begins to shift east of us Sunday night as a shortwave barrels through the Central Plains region. Another seasonably warm day expected on Monday underneath this ridge, but we will begin to observe an increase in clouds and eventually a notable increase in PoPs with the approaching shortwave. This shortwave feature and associated cold front will be fairly progressive as it swings through Monday night into the early part of Tuesday. This will limit the QPF footprint across our CWA, but 0.25" - 0.5" still plausible.

Temperatures slightly moderate on Tuesday, but highs are only a few degrees cooler given the weak cold frontal boundary. Some rain showers may linger into the early part of Tuesday before shifting eastward. By Wednesday, weak ridging will build back in over the Midwest, promoting drier conditions at the surface. However, warm and relatively humid conditions will be observed, which will continue into Thursday.

Model uncertainty grows as we near the end of the work week. There is some resemblance of a shortwave trough that will influence the weather pattern across the Ohio Valley. This will increases chances for precip, but will have to see how model guidance trends over the next few runs.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mid level ceilings this morning will decrease in coverage some this afternoon with generally high level ceilings into the overnight hours.

Additional shower or thunderstorm development is expected to remain north of the TAF sites today. Another period of low level wind shear is expected overnight after 06Z.

Southerly surface winds around 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts at times today and then up to 20 kts tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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