Friday, January28, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hamilton, OH

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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:55PM Friday January 28, 2022 6:37 AM EST (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:31AMMoonset 1:57PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamilton, OH
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location: 39.4, -84.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 281134 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 634 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

SYNOPSIS. Snow showers and a few flurries will linger through the day today with much below normal temperatures continuing through Saturday. A moderating trend will evolve early next week, with widespread pcpn chances returning again by midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Light snow continues to translate ENE through the southern half or so of the ILN FA, with fairly good banding evolving from Clermont Co east through Hocking Co as of this writing. Although snow accumulation reports have been fairly sparse thus far, do think that most spots from SW OH and N KY through south-central OH will end up with between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of total snowfall, with isolated higher amounts from Clermont through Hocking counties.

The back edge of the snow will work east through these areas through the predawn hours, with snow lingering past 12z for parts of south-central OH/NE KY. In fact, light snow may continues in these areas until 14z or so before tapering off to just a few flurries.

At this juncture, with the expectation for /most/ (but not all) areas to remain below 2" of snow, have decided to hold off on an advisory for now. Roads certainly may be snow-covered in a few spots and untreated surfaces may be slick, but current radar trends and estimations thus far point to /most/ areas receiving less than 2."

Attention for the daytime period will shift quickly to a digging midlevel trof axis migrating SE through the OH Vly by late morning into the afternoon. This digging/sharpening trof will help cool temps aloft and create some LL instby and steepening lapse rates during this time, with still ample saturation/moisture availability within the DGZ. Some of the hi- res data is suggesting the potential for one or more concentrated areas of SN shower activity tracking SE through IN and into parts of central/northern KY for this afternoon, potentially grazing the far SW stretches of the ILN FA. Most of this heavier SN shower activity should stay off /just/ to the SW of the local area, but suppose it cannot be ruled out completely from Switzerland IN through Owen Co KY. Where this activity does develop, it may be somewhat squally/convective in nature, with abrupt and significant VSBY reductions accompanied by brief heavier snow rates. With most of this remaining outside the local area, feel that more aggressive messaging regarding the potential hazards the activity may bring with it is not warranted at this time for the immediate local area.

Colder air will filter into the ILN FA through the daytime period, with daytime highs ranging from the teens in WC OH to the mid 20s south of the OH Rvr.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Once the lingering flurries taper off late this evening, attention will turn to the /very/ cold temps and wind chills expected for tonight. Not /quite/ enough confidence to go with a Wind Chill Advisory yet, but do think we may get /very/ close to -10F (or lower) wind chill values from WC through central OH toward daybreak Saturday. Will continue to monitor trends in the data, but would expect one will eventually be needed for N/NE parts of the local area once the favored area comes more into focus.

After /actual/ air temps bottom out near zero in WC/central OH to around 10F above zero south of the OH Rvr, temps will rebound only into the upper teens to upper 20s for the daytime on Saturday, even with the expectation for abundant sunshine. Sunny but cold.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. On Saturday evening, a very amplified flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a significant storm affecting the northeastern states. The base of the deep upper trough will be well east of the Ohio Valley, with strong but broad ridging out west. This will place the ILN CWA in a regime of northwesterly flow aloft, with surface high pressure to the south of the area. As the high moves further south, and low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, southerly boundary layer flow will set up Saturday night into Sunday. Saturday night low temperatures will likely occur early in the overnight, with rising temperatures by morning, and notably warmer conditions Sunday -- with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s. This is still below normal, but just the first day in a warming trend. There is also a fast-moving shortwave expected to slide southeast across the Great Lakes on Sunday, but impacts to the ILN forecast area will be minimal, if any. While the GFS and its ensemble remain slightly more robust with precipitation with this system, the ECMWF is dry, and there appears to be no support for measurable precipitation over the ILN CWA as of this time. If anything, it is possible some flurries could occur in central Ohio on Sunday.

Although a generally dry boundary layer will remain in place for another couple days, as flow switches to more of a southerly direction on Sunday and beyond, there will be a marked increase in temperatures going into Monday and Tuesday. This pattern shift will eventually put the ILN CWA into more of a broader, deep-layer southerly / southwesterly flow pattern, with downstream ridging and upstream troughing. After coming out of the weekend cool period, there will be temperatures well above normal coming next week -- 30s and 40s for highs on Monday, and 40s and 50s for highs on Tuesday.

The upper flow pattern will shift on Monday into Tuesday, with troughing developing upstream (west) and ridging developing downstream (east). This will set up a scenario in which, as the upstream trough amplifies, a significant period of widespread precipitation will be likely for the eastern half of the CONUS. At this point in the forecast cycle -- for a system likely to impact the area next Tuesday through Thursday -- getting into specifics would be imprudent. The key message at this point is that some kind of active period can be expected for the middle of next week, with a lot of moisture flowing northward into a frontal zone somewhere in the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. MVFR CIGs will prevail through the first part of the TAF period as SN traverses southern parts of the local area through 15z. Expect this activity to impact KCVG/KLUK/KILN with IFR VSBYs at times, especially through about 14-15z, with even some brief IFR VSBYs possible as far north as KCMH/KLCK during this time.

Will see the back edge of the SN drift S/E of the local sites during the mid morning hours, focusing more across south- central OH. Drier conditions will evolve for the terminals for the afternoon period, with the exception being perhaps for KCVG/KLUK as some afternoon snow shower activity will be lingering about the Tri-State area. Have included a VCSH for now to account for this potential. MVFR CIGs will linger through about 03z or so before lifting/scattering out late in the period from north to south as drier air filters in.

Light NW winds will increase to about 10-12kts through the daytime period. Some gusts to 18-20kts will be possible toward 00z, especially for southern sites, before subsiding once again late in the period. Skies will clear late in the period as NW winds subside to around 5kts toward daybreak.

OUTLOOK . No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . KC NEAR TERM . KC SHORT TERM . KC LONG TERM . Hatzos AVIATION . KC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Butler County Regional Airport, OH4 mi45 minN 07.00 miOvercast28°F26°F92%1021.5 hPa
Hook Field Municipal Airport, OH13 mi63 minN 07.00 miFog/Mist27°F25°F94%1021 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH22 mi45 minN 02.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F29°F96%1021.6 hPa
Dayton, Dayton-Wright Brothers Airport, OH23 mi45 minNNW 55.00 miOvercast with Haze29°F24°F82%1020.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHAO

Wind History from HAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr00000SW7
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2 days agoNW5NW6NW7NW6NW6NW7W6NW6NW6NW4NW9NW7NW4NW6NW3NW6NW6NW8NW8NW5NW9NW7NW7NW6

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