Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Castle Pines, CO
May 19, 2024 3:31 PM MDT (21:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 4:38 PM Moonset 3:38 AM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 192106 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 306 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A couple severe storms will move across the northeast plains late this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms elsewhere with gusty outflow winds.
- Another round of strong to severe storms expected Monday afternoon and evening across most of the eastern plains.
- Cooler, wetter pattern late Monday into Tuesday as a couple weak systems track across the region
- Warming/drying trend for the second half of next week
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Scattered storms, a couple severe with one already having a landspout, were moving east across the plains. Surface analysis shows a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extending across areas east of a Sterling to Akron line where dewpoints were in the mid 50s. There was some CIN noted farther east, but that is eroding and therefore the existing storms should continue to strengthen or become more numerous as the dryline works eastward. There could even be a lone severe storm in Lincoln County where MLCAPE is holding close to 1000 J/kg, and the dryline progression has been slower than expected.
Most of the storms will diminish or move east of the area by 6 pm.
That occurs as weak subsidence is noted in the QG fields, and indeed, the convection around Denver and points west and southwest over the mountains is quite shallow. Thus, mostly dry conditions are expected after dark. A cold front then arrives overnight with a push of north/northeast winds back into the Front Range. This should set the stage for a more active weather day on Monday.
Low level moisture increases back toward the Front Range on Monday, and this should allow MLCAPE to increase to near 1000 J/kg. It will be a little cooler, and the amount of stratus (if any) could play into destabilization. There is also considerable uncertainty with regard to the frontal location and where it could stall out - adding to the necessary lift required for convective initiation.
Forecaster experience would say it aligns closer to where the NAM suggests, stretching out across the Palmer Divide/South metro eastward onto the adjacent plains. Hodograph curvature is impressive along this boundary, with potential surface-1km helicity near 100-150 m2/s2 and surface-3km over 350 m2/s2! But....that's just one model and others are not nearly as strong and updraft helicity is limited per some of the HRRR members.
Instability could also be limited to less than 1000 j/kg. We coordinated with SPC on the Day 2 outlook, bringing the Slight Risk area into northeast Colorado and Marginal back to the I-25 Corridor. Depending on how the instability and shear profiles appear, further adjustments may occur. Stay tuned for the latest updates. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes would be possible should the higher end instability/shear profiles develop.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
The threat of severe weather will carry into Monday evening and night as storms push east into the plains. Large hail, wind gusts up to 60 mph, a possible tornado, and brief heavy rainfall could occur until 11 PM MDT. Late Monday night, overcast skies and a lack of instability will likely lead to stratiform rain across the region. The threat of flooding should remain low due to rainfall intensity becoming lighter and soil moisture values are slightly drier in the eastern plains. QPF fields display 0.50-1.50 inches total Tuesday along the foothills and plains. With rainfall continuing into early Wednesday morning, expect overcast skies and lower temperatures Tuesday afternoon and night. West of the Divide, light snow will occur for areas above 8k ft. Snowfall totals between 2-5 inches are possible with the highest totals mainly along the Park Range through Wednesday morning.
As this system exits, lingering moisture and weak MLCAPE values between up to 100 J/kg may lead to an isolated storm or two mainly near the WY/NE/CO border. Short-lived ridge pattern enters northeast Colorado starting Thursday evening which could limit severe weather. An isolated shower or two could occur along the foothills and plains but the likelihood of severe remains low. A front develops late Thursday which will slightly cool afternoon temperatures Friday through the weekend. Near normal temperatures are likely for northeast Colorado. It is possible an additional shortwave could bring additional moisture to the region each afternoon Friday through this weekend leading slight chance of showers and storms
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Main concern is gusty outflow winds from high based showers or virga this afternoon.
ACARS soundings show the inversion weakening and we're starting to mix a little better now. While we could go variable winds for an hour or two initially, overall a west to northwest wind should prevail through 00Z. We are already starting to see cumulus develop in/near the mountains, and thermal/moisture profiles would suggest strong and gusty outflow wind potential to ~40 knots possible with any high based convective activity. Coverage is expected to be great enough per upstream satellite imagery to warrant VRB gusty winds with a VCSH from around 19Z to ~00Z. The threat of any thunder is less than 10%.
Winds should settle down toward 00Z but could still be variable between northerly and east or southeast. A cold front then arrives toward 09Z-11Z with a northeasterly push of winds. That will also usher in higher low level moisture with potential for stratus. At this point, the upslope appears pretty shallow and weak, so we'll just go with SCT clouds around 3000 ft AGL for the Denver area TAF sites 12Z-16Z. There's about a 30% chance it goes BKN for MVFR ceilings.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 306 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A couple severe storms will move across the northeast plains late this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms elsewhere with gusty outflow winds.
- Another round of strong to severe storms expected Monday afternoon and evening across most of the eastern plains.
- Cooler, wetter pattern late Monday into Tuesday as a couple weak systems track across the region
- Warming/drying trend for the second half of next week
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Scattered storms, a couple severe with one already having a landspout, were moving east across the plains. Surface analysis shows a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extending across areas east of a Sterling to Akron line where dewpoints were in the mid 50s. There was some CIN noted farther east, but that is eroding and therefore the existing storms should continue to strengthen or become more numerous as the dryline works eastward. There could even be a lone severe storm in Lincoln County where MLCAPE is holding close to 1000 J/kg, and the dryline progression has been slower than expected.
Most of the storms will diminish or move east of the area by 6 pm.
That occurs as weak subsidence is noted in the QG fields, and indeed, the convection around Denver and points west and southwest over the mountains is quite shallow. Thus, mostly dry conditions are expected after dark. A cold front then arrives overnight with a push of north/northeast winds back into the Front Range. This should set the stage for a more active weather day on Monday.
Low level moisture increases back toward the Front Range on Monday, and this should allow MLCAPE to increase to near 1000 J/kg. It will be a little cooler, and the amount of stratus (if any) could play into destabilization. There is also considerable uncertainty with regard to the frontal location and where it could stall out - adding to the necessary lift required for convective initiation.
Forecaster experience would say it aligns closer to where the NAM suggests, stretching out across the Palmer Divide/South metro eastward onto the adjacent plains. Hodograph curvature is impressive along this boundary, with potential surface-1km helicity near 100-150 m2/s2 and surface-3km over 350 m2/s2! But....that's just one model and others are not nearly as strong and updraft helicity is limited per some of the HRRR members.
Instability could also be limited to less than 1000 j/kg. We coordinated with SPC on the Day 2 outlook, bringing the Slight Risk area into northeast Colorado and Marginal back to the I-25 Corridor. Depending on how the instability and shear profiles appear, further adjustments may occur. Stay tuned for the latest updates. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes would be possible should the higher end instability/shear profiles develop.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
The threat of severe weather will carry into Monday evening and night as storms push east into the plains. Large hail, wind gusts up to 60 mph, a possible tornado, and brief heavy rainfall could occur until 11 PM MDT. Late Monday night, overcast skies and a lack of instability will likely lead to stratiform rain across the region. The threat of flooding should remain low due to rainfall intensity becoming lighter and soil moisture values are slightly drier in the eastern plains. QPF fields display 0.50-1.50 inches total Tuesday along the foothills and plains. With rainfall continuing into early Wednesday morning, expect overcast skies and lower temperatures Tuesday afternoon and night. West of the Divide, light snow will occur for areas above 8k ft. Snowfall totals between 2-5 inches are possible with the highest totals mainly along the Park Range through Wednesday morning.
As this system exits, lingering moisture and weak MLCAPE values between up to 100 J/kg may lead to an isolated storm or two mainly near the WY/NE/CO border. Short-lived ridge pattern enters northeast Colorado starting Thursday evening which could limit severe weather. An isolated shower or two could occur along the foothills and plains but the likelihood of severe remains low. A front develops late Thursday which will slightly cool afternoon temperatures Friday through the weekend. Near normal temperatures are likely for northeast Colorado. It is possible an additional shortwave could bring additional moisture to the region each afternoon Friday through this weekend leading slight chance of showers and storms
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Main concern is gusty outflow winds from high based showers or virga this afternoon.
ACARS soundings show the inversion weakening and we're starting to mix a little better now. While we could go variable winds for an hour or two initially, overall a west to northwest wind should prevail through 00Z. We are already starting to see cumulus develop in/near the mountains, and thermal/moisture profiles would suggest strong and gusty outflow wind potential to ~40 knots possible with any high based convective activity. Coverage is expected to be great enough per upstream satellite imagery to warrant VRB gusty winds with a VCSH from around 19Z to ~00Z. The threat of any thunder is less than 10%.
Winds should settle down toward 00Z but could still be variable between northerly and east or southeast. A cold front then arrives toward 09Z-11Z with a northeasterly push of winds. That will also usher in higher low level moisture with potential for stratus. At this point, the upslope appears pretty shallow and weak, so we'll just go with SCT clouds around 3000 ft AGL for the Denver area TAF sites 12Z-16Z. There's about a 30% chance it goes BKN for MVFR ceilings.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAPA CENTENNIAL,CO | 9 sm | 38 min | W 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 30°F | 18% | 29.83 | |
| KBKF BUCKLEY AFB,CO | 19 sm | 33 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 30°F | 16% | 29.80 |
Denver/Boulder, CO,
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