Saturday, October23, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Fallon, NV

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:07PM Saturday October 23, 2021 2:30 PM PDT (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fallon, NV
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.47, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KREV 231943 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1243 PM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS.

A weak wave is bringing a few showers to the region this afternoon before the main event arrives overnight through Monday. A strong atmospheric river will bring a deluge of rain, heavy mountain snow, and gusty, potentially damaging, winds to the region. Flooding is a concern, particularly near recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION.

Well, the next couple days should be interesting to say the least as a strong atmospheric river slams into the west coast. If you haven't done so yet, today is the final day to prepare by cleaning out your gutters and drainage areas. If you need to cross the Sierra, it's recommended to do so today, or wait until Tuesday.

LIQUID TOTALS:

Anticipated liquid totals remain largely unchanged with potential for 6-10" along the Sierra crest, 3-6" of liquid into the Tahoe Basin, 2-4" into northeast California and the Eastern Sierra of Mono County, 0.75-3+" along the Sierra Front of Western Nevada, and 0.25- 1+" of liquid for the west central Nevada Basin and Range. At this point, the greatest variation in upper/lower end qpf ranges lies in areas near and east of US-395. This is likely due to shadowing in higher resolution models and an uptick in wind speeds. A lot of these high res models do tend to overshadow in the lee of the Sierra and in this case, the synoptic set up and intense IVT would lead me to favor the wetter scenarios. Just keep in mind, there is a 20% chance for the drier scenarios to come to fruition.

If we are in the 50th-75th percentile range of the qpf guidance, 2- day precipitation records [for the month of October] are possible. Example, the current forecast of ~5" of liquid in Tahoe City is the second highest 2-day October total in 112 year climo history (5.72" is the current record). For Reno, the current forecast of near 2" of rain would be a 2-day record for October, with the current record 1.67".

WINDS:

On the wind side of the spectrum, the HREF ensemble mean is remarkably stronger with peak wind speeds for Sunday, which several other models and the NBM agree with. Taking a look at ensemble meteograms, the gusts have trended upward, but there is still a wide spread with the upper end numbers, with 60+ mph only showing up in about 15% of the solutions. Given the 700 mb jet streak peaking around 65-75 kts, there is plenty of wind energy aloft and it won't take much to mix down those stronger gusts.

The winds and the intense precipitation rates may be battling each other, so it may be more intermittent rather than consistent for those potentially damaging gusts. Even so, we have upgraded the High Wind Watches to High Wind Warnings, with particular concern along the western NV Sierra Front and Eastern Sierra areas. We are still looking for gusts easily exceeding 100 mph across ridgelines. These winds will bring periods of travel and recreation concerns along with very bumpy flights for aviators.

FLOODING CONCERNS:

Despite the copious amounts of rain, the dry soils and large amount of available storage in reservoirs will likely mitigate widespread flood risks. That being said, recent ensemble scenarios from the CNRFC indicate low end probabilities (~10% chance) for more significant river rises, possibly even near or above monitor stage, with a 5% chance of exceeding flood stage in some locations. Keep in mind, this is likely worst case scenario, but it still bears watching. Smaller creeks and streams and urban/poor drainage flooding is certainly possible as well.

The greatest threat will be the recent burn scars -- really any major burns in the past couple of years in the Sierra and/or western Nevada foothills. This will be the first real test for several burns, including but not limited to: Caldor East, Tamarack, Slink, and Numbers. Dixie East, Beckwourth, Sheep, and Walker saw minor impacts from the rain yesterday and now have saturated soils, so this could further exacerbate things there. Higher resolution model guidance is indicating rainfall rates possible exceeding 0.5"/hour at times in northeast California and the Sierra from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Mud/debris flows or rock/tree falls are all on the table, so pay extra attention if you are near a burn scar.

SNOW:

Snow levels will start rather high, around 9,000-10,000 feet, but will fall late Sunday into Monday. The question at this point is how fast will they fall. It looks like Sierra passes above 8000 feet will start to see impacts Sunday night, with those closer to 7,000 feet before sunrise Monday. Snow levels will crash to around 5500- 6000 feet by Monday night, but the bulk of the precipitation will have already fallen by this point. Snow totals for the high Sierra (above 8,500-9,000') could reach 2-4+ feet, with the character being heavy and wet. Communities in the Tahoe Basin and those along US-395 in the Eastern Sierra are likely to only see 1-5", but if snow levels fall faster, those totals could easily double.

BEYOND THIS STORM:

The bulk of the AR moisture is out of the region by Monday afternoon with lingering showers possible through Tuesday as the upper trough transverses the region. Ridging builds over the west the middle into the end of the week, but waves of moisture continue to stream into the Pacific Northwest, which will likely keep high clouds around. While a weak, fast-moving system can't be ruled out before Halloween, overall there are no major storms on the horizon (beyond the current one) through the start of November. -Dawn

AVIATION.

A weak system working through the area today will bring with it some lowering CIGS and a chance for scattered showers. As the system exits overnight there will be an increase in LLWS, decrease in VIS, and the slight chance for showers remains. This system is closely followed by the larger, more dynamic system associated with the atmospheric river event we have been advertising.

This much stronger and wetter Pacific system will impact the region Sunday morning into Monday with strong winds, mountain obscuration and heavy rain for terminals across the region. Winds and LLWS with this system will be of great concern throughout the region. VIS/CIG could lower conditions across Sierra and western NV terminals down to IFR/LIFR in heavier precipitation. There are chances for accumulating snow at KTRK/KTVL/KMMH Monday.

HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ001-003.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ004.

Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning NVZ002-003.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday above 7000 feet in NVZ002.

CA . High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday CAZ073.

Flood Watch from 11 PM PDT this evening through late Sunday night CAZ071.

Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon CAZ073.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday above 8500 feet in CAZ073.

Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning CAZ072.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday above 7000 feet in CAZ072.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fallon, Naval Air Station, NV16 mi35 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F39°F57%1009.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNFL

Wind History from NFL (wind in knots)
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
Last 24hrNW19
G26
N13
G20
NW13NW11N11N7N3NE3N5NE3N4NW4N6N8NE8NE8E5SW3NW3SE5S500NE5
1 day agoS8W16
G22
W8W755SE75SW7SW7S7S8S6SW5S6S4S7SE10S9SW11S12NW12W20
G25
W17
G24
2 days agoS11S11S6NW6W65555SE6SE50S4S5S9S5SE6SE50S8S10S9SE4S6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.