Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake City, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:14PM Saturday October 23, 2021 3:54 PM EDT (19:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:00PMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 137 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect late Sunday night...
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 137 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will weaken as it passes through the region today, while high pressure is slated to build over the area through Sunday. A warm front approaches from the west by Sunday evening while a cold front crosses through the area late Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday due to increased southerly channeling while gale conditions will be possible on Tuesday as an area of low pressure develops off the coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake City, MD
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location: 39.5, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 231916 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure over the Southeast states will slide offshore tonight through Sunday. A warm front ahead of developing low pressure lifts through the region Sunday night. Low pressure passes through the region Monday night through Tuesday, then meanders offshore through Wednesday. Another system could impact the region late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. A closed low centered near James Bay Canada will meander some through Sunday. A strong shortwave crossing our area this afternoon will then lift to our northeast this evening. This shortwave has amplified the southeastern portion of the larger upper-level trough, with even some hints of it taking on a negative tilt as it lifts to our northeast. While there is not a lot of moisture to work with ahead of this shortwave, large scale forcing for ascent is sufficient and therefore some showers are accompanying it. The coverage of showers has trended down some during the course of the day as the system enters our area, however enough showers are expected and therefore highest PoPs continued from about the I-78 corridor northward with these then decreasing with a southward extent.

The visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows the overall cloud pattern as turned more convective looking. Some subsidence in the wake of a weak shortwave this morning has resulted in some decent breaks in the clouds. This is helping to build more convective clouds and an 18z mesoanalysis indicated 100-200 J/Kg of surface-based CAPE is present from about the Philadelphia metro southward. This will lead to a few stronger but brief showers especially across portions of the central to southern zones into this evening. Radar trends this afternoon indicate this is indeed occurring, with some of the convection allowing models (CAMs) also supporting this. No thunder is expected however given the low-topped nature of the convective elements.

As we go through tonight, the southern portion of the eastern Canada closed low retreats northward some allowing a more zonal flow to occur. This will also take much of the shortwave energy to our north through tonight, with weak high pressure arriving. This should result in enough subsidence and drying to lessen the cloud cover through the night, especially for about the southern half of our area. This combined with little or no wind will result in colder temperatures. Portions of northwestern New Jersey to northeastern Pennsylvania should have temperatures drop into the upper to perhaps mid 30s by daybreak Sunday. While a touch of frost cannot be ruled out in those areas, given the setup and the rather patchy nature of it no headlines are needed. There may be patchy fog, particularly in some of the valleys of eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern Jersey. Given low confidence regarding the fog, kept the mention more limited for now.

For Sunday, the aforementioned closed low is forecast to become condensed as it weakens some just north of the Great Lakes. As this occurs, a shortwave trough is forecast to sharpen as it ejects out into the central Plains. This will result in increasing downstream low-level warm air advection along and south of a strengthening warm front. This warm front will make a run at our area during the afternoon, and the combination of the low-level warm air advection incoming from the southwest and an upper-level jet to our north should result in an increasing band of mid to high level clouds. Some overrunning light rain may near our far northwestern zones later in the afternoon as a result. The surface flow will veer to the southwest or south during the day, however it looks weak and therefore mixing is limited. High temperatures will be on the cooler side, especially across the northern areas with farther south locales getting close to average.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Low pressure will intensify over northwest Missouri/southeast Iowa, and a warm front will extend out from that low and will lift north through the region. Rain will develop, mainly across the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey, in the evening, and that rain lifts north through early Monday morning.

Strong warm air advection will be underway on Monday with deep southerly flow. 850 mb temperatures will rise to +10C to +11C, and high temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 70s. A few locations could approach record highs.

Some showers will develop late as that low moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. The quiet weather that has been in place will give way to to an active week.

As low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley Monday evening, models indicating a weak secondary low forming out ahead of it in the Mid- Atlantic area, and that secondary low will lift along the coast Monday night before merging with the primary low somewhere offshore. Strong mid-level shortwave energy will pass through the region associated with a broad closed upper low.

Although there is still some time to see how things develop, there are indications for a potential severe weather event with this system Monday night.

12Z/23 NAM indicating around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE values, a 40+ kt LLJ will be over New Jersey, and 0-6 km Bulk Shear 30-40 kt. NAM and GFS are also indicating helicity values of 100-200. Deep low-level moisture in place, as surface dew points will be in the 60s, resulting in PWATs around 1.5 inches. Heavy rain is possible. Will bump thunderstorm chances up from slight chance to chance for Monday night.

Low pressure will move off the New Jersey coast Tuesday morning. Showers taper off from west to east throughout the day. However, models indicating yet another area of low pressure over the western Atlantic, several hundred miles east of the Carolina coast. These two systems look to merge over the western Atlantic as a broad upper low moves over the Northeast. With this low working its way through the region, will keep at least chance PoPs in the forecast through Wednesday as scattered showers work their way across the region.

There may be a brief period of dry weather sometime Wednesday night into Thursday as a mid-level ridge builds across the Northeast.

Thereafter, another area of low pressure will approach for the end of the work week and possibly into the start of the weekend. However, there is much uncertainty among the models, so for now, will stick with the NBM for this time frame.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon . VFR ceilings mainly between 4000-10000 feet. Some showers will be around with local and brief MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities possible especially. Light and variable winds overall. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR with ceilings thinning out and any showers ending early. Localized fog possible overnight, mainly at a few of the rural terminals. Light and variable winds, becoming locally calm. Low confidence regarding fog development.

Sunday . Localized fog possible early, otherwise VFR with a ceiling around 10000 feet developing. Light and variable winds, becoming southwest or south near 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Monday . Sub-VFR conditions possible in RA/BR Sunday night. VFR otherwise. S winds 5-10 kt Sunday night, increasing to 10-20 kt on Monday. Moderate confidence.

Monday night through Tuesday . Sub-VFR conditions with SHRA and scattered TSRA. LLWS possible Monday night. S winds 5-10 kt Monday night, becoming NW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Tuesday afternoon. Low confidence.

Wednesday . Mostly VFR. NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . VFR. NE winds 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Low confidence.

MARINE. The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sunday. Northwesterly winds will gradually become southerly during Sunday.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Monday . SW winds increase to 15 to 20 kt. Gusts around 25 kt. Seas building to 3 to 5 ft. A SCA may be needed.

Monday night . S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas building to 3 to 5 ft. A SCA may be needed. VSBY restrictions in showers and fog. Thunderstorms possible.

Tuesday . Winds becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. VSBY restrictions likely in showers and fog.

Wednesday . NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt possible. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

Thursday . NE winds 15-20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Gorse Short Term . MPS Long Term . MPS Aviation . Gorse/MPS Marine . Gorse/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi67 min W 6G8 63°F 65°F1014.2 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 18 mi67 min WSW 6G8.9 63°F 66°F1013.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 19 mi67 min 64°F 66°F1013.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi67 min SSW 6G8 62°F 66°F1014.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 32 mi67 min SE 2.9G5.1 60°F 65°F1014.9 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi67 min 62°F 65°F1013.6 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi67 min W 6G11 64°F 1013.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi67 min W 1.9G7 65°F 70°F1013.4 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 38 mi145 min W 1.9 63°F 1015 hPa57°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi67 min W 6G8 64°F 1013.9 hPa
CPVM2 43 mi67 min 63°F 53°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi43 min ESE 3.9G9.7 64°F 67°F1 ft1014.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi67 min SSW 1G5.1 66°F 69°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi57 minS 610.00 miOvercast62°F51°F68%1013.8 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi64 minSW 610.00 miOvercast63°F49°F60%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr0NE30000000000000N300N300SW4SW5S6
1 day agoSW6SW7SW6S3SW3SW3SW4SW11SW10SW7SW50000NW4NW3W4W7W800NE4E4
2 days agoW9W6W5000000000000000W300SW4W7SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:15 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:05 PM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:41 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:16 AM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:21 PM EDT     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:10 PM EDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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