Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bear, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:59PM Thursday September 23, 2021 2:45 PM EDT (18:45 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 136 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to midnight edt tonight...
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will continue to push through the region this morning as high pressure gradually builds back in from the west. High pressure will remain in control for the weekend. However a weak cold front may cross the region Saturday night where small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bear, DE
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location: 39.56, -75.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 231444 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1044 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move into the region today and pushing to the east through tonight. High pressure will build into the Mid- Atlantic from the southwest for Friday and Saturday. A weak cold front will cross the region later Saturday followed by a return to high pressure for Sunday through Tuesday. Yet another cold front will approach the region later Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Mid-Morning Update .

Very little change to the forecast this morning. Made some adjustments to hourly PoPs based on radar trends, but overall thinking remains the same. While the front approached a little faster than expected overnight, it is now slowing down as it moves into the area, and it will take most of the day for showers and thunderstorms to move through. Eastern areas will even continue to see breaks of sun for another couple hours before rain gradually overspreads. We have already seen some impressive rainfall amounts over eastern Maryland as cells train from south to north. As the front crawls eastward, the risk for training cells and heavy rain will gradually shift east as well. The potential remains for at least localized flash flooding. Am not overly concerned about the severe threat due to limited instability, but with a strong LLJ there remains a threat for a convectively enhanced damaging wind gust, and given strong low level SRH (shown nicely in 12z RAOBs from OKX and WAL), still cannot entirely rule out an isolated tornado. Previous discussion follows .

A few light showers have worked their way across the Delaware Valley this morning, but a stronger line of showers and possibly some embedded thunder is forming across the western Chesapeake Bay and is expected to push eastward to the Eastern Shore later this morning. Further to our west, a deeply occluded upper- level low is centered over the Ohio Valley, with a rigorous dry slot working northward between it and the associated cold/occluded front to its east.

One concern today with this front continues to be the flash flooding threat with the area of greatest concern being the Lehigh Valley and Poconos where orographic enhancement is likely to enhance heavy rainfall potential. A swath of PWAT values exceeding two inches just to our west continues to move towards our region this morning. A big factor at play will be exactly how quickly the front moves east with a rather abrupt end to the rainfall as the dry slot moves into the region from west to east. Latest guidance has suggested this may push eastward a little more quickly, which has resulted in a slight decrease in rainfall totals, though the risk for localized amounts exceeding three inches still remains across eastern Pennsylvania. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of the region along and west of the I-95 corridor.

Another item of concern is the severe threat. The impressive synoptic-level winds with the system will likely be mixed down to the surface with some of the stronger showers and thunderstorms with 40 to 50-knot winds only a few thousand feet above the surface with a very rigorous low level jet shooting from south to north ahead of this front. With the more southeasterly flow at the surface and southerly to south- southwesterly winds in this jet, the threat for isolated tornadoes continues to remain. Any updrafts that can tap into this pre-existing low-level wind shear will easily be able to rotate. 0-3km SRH values from 200 to 300 m2/s2 largely support this threat. The more surface heating and sunshine we see early today, the greater the threat is likely to be. With forecast ML CAPEs around 1000 J/kg across the I-95 corridor, this should be enough to get a few stronger cells going.

Otherwise, highs today will be seasonably warm in the upper 70s to near 80 and lows dropping into the upper 50s tonight behind the front. Warmer values near the coast with the front not clearing the region as fast. Highs tomorrow will be a little cooler in the low 70s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The cold front pulls off to the east on Friday, allowing for dry air to quickly push into our forecast area. With clearing skies and plenty of sunshine, it will feel quite fall-like on Friday as highs only rise into the 60s to lower 70s across the region. With dew points in the 50s, it will feel much more comfortable than it has in recent days.

With the skies remaining clear into Friday night and winds dropping off, we should radiate fairly well. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area.

Saturday will feature high pressure building cresting overhead. A few clouds around the region during the day but otherwise mostly sunny skies are expected. Highs will be similar to Friday, through with some slight warming aloft in the southwest flow it should be a couple of degrees warmer. A weak cold front will approach from the west as a deep upper trough pushes towards the area, moving through later Saturday night. While there will be quite a bit of energy available aloft, the front itself is moisture starved and we are not expecting any showers to develop as it moves through and makes its way offshore Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Surface high pressure will build across the region for Sunday through Tuesday, keeping the region dry. Aloft, a trough will dig down and cross the region Sunday into Monday. While there is no moisture associated with this trough passage, there should be some cooler temperatures which will keep the highs on Sunday slightly below normal and in the 60s to lower 70s through much of the region. As we go through Monday and Tuesday, the air mass will moderate and warm a few degrees each day.

A weak cold front will approach the region on Tuesday, passing through Tuesday night. Some rain showers may accompany the front and we can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder.

Ridging aloft along with surface high pressure will once again move over the region for midweek with warmer and drier conditions expected.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . A mix of MVFR with some remaining pockets of VFR should continue through the morning as a frontal system and associated rainfall slowly approaches. All terminals should drop to MVFR by this afternoon, with widespread MVFR and localized IFR through this evening with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. Timing of the cold front has sped up slightly, thus southeasterly winds from 15 to 20 knots through 20Z with gusts up to 30 knots will begin to quickly shift westerly as the front passes through the region. The front looks to pass slowly across the region from 20Z at RDG to 22Z at the Philly terminals to 06Z at ACY. Moderate to high confidence in overall trend, lower confidence in exact timing of wind shift and categorical shifts.

Tonight . A gradual improvement from lingering MVFR to VFR through the early morning. West-southwesterly winds shifting to west- northwest from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Friday . VFR with westerly winds from 5 to 10 knots. A few showers may linger along the coast in the morning hours bringing probable MVFR restrictions through 16Z. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday night through Sunday . Mainly VFR expected. West to northwest winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots on Sunday. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR expected. West to southwest wind around 10 to 15 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Today . Southeasterly winds from 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Seas building to 4 to 7 feet with a few 8-foot breaking waves possible. An SCA remains in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters through the day. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Delaware Bay through 6 pm as the funneling of southeasterly flow up the Bay allows for some gusts near to above 35 kt, the likes of which have already been observed.

Tonight . Winds turning westerly and dropping to 10 to 15 knots but seas will linger from 4 to 6 feet through the night, thus the SCA remains in effect through the overnight for the Atlantic coastal waters.

Friday . Northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. Seas remaining elevated through 4 pm from 3 to 5 feet.

Outlook .

Friday night through Monday . No marine headlines are anticipated. Westerly winds around 10 to 15 knots, with some gusts around 20 knots on Sunday. Seas generally around 2 to 4 feet.

Rip currents .

We have forecast a HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents for today for both NJ and DE beaches, as winds become a little stronger with an increasing swell.

A HIGH risk will continue for the NJ beaches on Friday with a MODERATE risk expected at the DE beaches.

A Rip Current Statement is in effect for the DE beaches through tonight and for the NJ beaches through Friday evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Strong southerly flow in advance of the system moving through the region resulted in elevated water levels on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, where some minor tidal flooding has occurred. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Kent County until noon.

Water levels on the far upper Delaware Bay and on the tidal Delaware River are also elevated due to the strong southeast wind. We have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for those areas for this afternoon.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ070-071-102-104- 106. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-106. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ054-055-060>062- 101-103-105. NJ . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ001-007>010-012- 015. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ017>019. DE . High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for DEZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ001. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ012. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-431.



Synopsis . Meola Near Term . Davis/O'Brien Short Term . Meola Long Term . Meola Aviation . Davis/Meola/O'Brien Marine . Davis/Meola Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 5 mi46 min WNW 1 G 4.1 66°F 75°F1011.2 hPa (+2.4)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 5 mi46 min 66°F 76°F1010.7 hPa (+2.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 8 mi46 min WNW 7 G 8.9 65°F 75°F1011.3 hPa (+1.8)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 22 mi46 min 71°F 74°F1010 hPa (+0.7)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 23 mi46 min WSW 12 G 14 68°F 75°F1011.8 hPa (+1.6)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 35 mi76 min W 2.9 68°F 1011 hPa68°F
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 38 mi46 min 71°F 73°F1009.9 hPa (-0.4)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi46 min WNW 5.1 G 8 67°F 75°F1011.4 hPa (+0.9)
BDSP1 43 mi46 min 71°F 73°F1010.4 hPa (-0.4)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 49 mi46 min WNW 16 G 18 1011.6 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE9 mi55 minW 109.00 miLight Rain66°F64°F93%1010.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILG

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for St. Georges, Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Delaware
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St. Georges
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Thu -- 01:07 AM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.44.84.63.82.81.91.20.60.40.92.13.24.14.74.74.13.12.21.50.90.50.71.72.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:15 AM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:03 AM EDT     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.08 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:22 AM EDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:13 PM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:04 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:53 PM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.7-1.1-1.7-1.9-1.7-1.4-0.90.91.7221.50.7-1.2-1.8-2-2-1.7-1.3-0.41.41.92.11.9

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