Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:25PM Friday October 15, 2021 11:28 PM EDT (03:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:29PMMoonset 12:47AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1037 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1037 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain in place through tonight, while a strong cold front will pass through the region on Saturday. Small craft advisories will be required during the second half of the weekend. Gale conditions are possible Saturday. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, high pressure returns from Monday through Wednesday. Small craft conditions will likely linger into portions of Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, MD
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location: 39.57, -75.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 160102 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 902 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will shift to our south and east tonight. Low pressure will strengthen across the Ohio Valley tonight and move into southeastern Canada Saturday. An associated strong cold front will sweep across our region Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening. High pressure will build toward our area late Sunday and Monday, then remain in place through Wednesday. A cold front should arrive later Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. A pleasant mid-October evening in progress with temperatures more like late summer than mid-autumn. The humidity levels are moderate, so with the light breeze out there, overall - not bad.

The cold front is crossing the Great Lakes while the high pressure moves away, a couple showers tried to enter the western areas earlier, but most have dissipated. One shower well NW near AVP may scrape the southern Poconos before midnight. We left a small chance POP for those areas tonight. Low temperatures will be quite warm for the season, only falling into the low 60s in most places.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A classic fall transition day is expected Saturday as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. Synoptically, an upper-level trough will shift eastward across the Great Lakes, adjacent Canada, and the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions Saturday into Sunday. The northern portion of the trough should take on a negative tilt as it lifts across New England and adjacent Canada. Surface low pressure will track well to our west and north later Saturday, with an associated cold front blasting across our area Saturday afternoon and early evening. There continues to be a strong wind field forecast to accompany this, and therefore strong shear will be in place. Strong convergence with the cold front along with a tight thermal gradient along and behind it will drive strong frontal forcing.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will again warm well above average for the season, to the upper 70s and locally near 80. Model forecast soundings continue to show weak, but non-zero, instability, and therefore support a high shear/low CAPE setup. This tends to favor more of a narrow low-topped convective line with the front, with little or no lightning, given a deep southwesterly unidirectional flow in the warm sector. Convection allowing models (CAMs) remain in good agreement depicting a narrow convective line quickly moving eastward across our area, with some lighter, anafrontal showers possible behind it. The timing on this looks to be about 2PM to 8PM from west to east, and have reflected thoughts on timing in the PoPs.

In terms of hazards, the main concern will be a brief burst of gusty winds associated with the convective line as convection mixes down the stronger winds aloft. This is a very familiar setup for our region. In some cases, these events can be quite prolific, causing widespread wind damage even with little or no lightning. In this case, the dynamics just aren't there to support one of those higher end events, with low level (925-850mb) wind fields being strong but not exceptionally so. It's unlikely we'll see any gusts meeting the technical severe criteria on Saturday, but localized gusts of 35 to 45 mph could produced localized tree damage. The SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather for much of our area. It will be a breezy day to begin with, as southerly flow increases ahead of the front. Some synoptic gusts over 30 mph are likely. Behind the front, winds will shift to west-northwest and temperatures will quickly drop.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Following the cold front, strong cold/dry air advections will usher in much cooler and drier air Saturday night with perhaps some clouds lingering especially across the northwestern areas.

For Sunday, the presence of an upper-level trough and associated cyclonic flow will result in a much cooler airmass to be in place. There will be a gusty northwest wind (gusts up to 35 mph) given cold air advection, a tightened pressure gradient and favorable vertical mixing during the daylight hours. Given the cold air aloft, cyclonic flow, and moisture profile, there should be a decent amount of stratocumulus around Sunday for at least portions of the area. Some guidance indicates a few light showers or sprinkles possible especially in the afternoon across mostly the northwestern zones. The gusty winds should subside some at night given reduced vertical mixing.

A large upper-level trough across eastern Canada and the Northeast will maintain cyclonic flow across our area on Monday. At the surface, high pressure will gradually build toward our area from the southwest. A tightened pressure gradient remains across our region, and decent vertical mixing gets going during the daytime heating cycle. Despite weaker cold air advection, a notable breeze will continue during the day before diminishing in the evening with much reduced mixing and high pressure edging closer.

For Tuesday and Wednesday . The influence of the upper-level trough gradually starts to lift to our east and northeast during this time frame, although one last strong short wave may amplify the trough briefly across New England Tuesday night. Surface high pressure gradually builds more into our area, although the presence of the trough axis Tuesday night into Wednesday may place a surface trough across our area. It appears that no appreciable forcing and moisture will be present, therefore no precipitation is expected. As heights rise in the wake of the upper-level trough, developing warm air advection will result in a milder airmass building back into the area especially for Wednesday.

For Thursday and Friday . An upper-level trough is forecast to slide eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As it then continues to shift eastward, an associated cold front looks to cross our area Thursday night or Friday morning. The timing details will likely adjust given this is several days out, therefore maintain low PoPs at this point.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible near RDG and ABE. Some localized fog is possible mainly across southern New Jersey and Delmarva, but is not likely to be dense or widespread. Winds light and variable or light from the south. High confidence.

Saturday . VFR through the morning. A cold front will move through from west to east approximately 18z to 23z. This will bring a band of showers and isolated tstms, with a short period of MVFR conditions possible. Winds will increase ahead of the front, becoming south or south-southwest at 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Some brief gusts of 30 to 40 kt are possible with the convective line during the mid to late afternoon. Winds will then turn west or west-northwest behind the front, and remain west-northwest overnight with VFR conditions. High confidence in the overall evolution, moderate confidence in timing details.

Outlook .

Sunday and Monday . VFR. Northwesterly winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots (winds diminish some each night). Moderate confidence.

Tuesday and Wednesday . VFR. Westerly winds around 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Through tonight . Sub-SCA conditions are expected. South wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Saturday-Saturday night . A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware, as well as Delware Bay. Southerly winds will increase to around 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. A couple of gusts to near gale force are possible. In addition, a line of convective showers and isolated thunder may bring a brief period of higher winds during the evening, and will also cause winds to shift to westerly during the evening. Seas will also increase to 4 to 5 ft.

Outlook .

Sunday . Conditions may subside below SCA levels, but west- northwest winds will gust 20 to 25 kt with seas 3 to 4 ft.

Monday . Small Craft Advisory conditions due to a gusty west- northwest wind, with conditions improving at night.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

CLIMATE. Three RERs were issued earlier for tied MAX temperatures today. Allentown PA tied a max temp of 82 which was previously set in 1947. The other two were: Georgetown DE with a max temp of 84 previously set in 1975 and Mount Pocono PA, a high of 77 was also set in 1989.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . Gorse Near Term . O'Hara Short Term . Gorse/O'Brien Long Term . Gorse Aviation . Gorse/O'Brien Marine . Gorse/O'Brien Climate . O'Hara/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 4 mi58 min SSE 1G1.9 67°F 71°F1012.2 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 14 mi58 min 0G1 70°F 71°F1012.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 15 mi58 min 67°F 71°F1011.6 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 28 mi58 min 69°F 69°F1011.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi58 min SSW 12G14 71°F 70°F1012.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi58 min S 6G8.9 72°F 73°F1011.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 40 mi58 min SSW 1.9 66°F 1012 hPa65°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 43 mi58 min SSW 5.1G6 72°F 1011.4 hPa
FSNM2 43 mi58 min S 7G9.9 73°F 1011.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi58 min SSW 1.9G2.9 72°F 73°F1011.1 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi58 min 70°F 66°F1011.9 hPa
CPVM2 49 mi58 min 73°F 69°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE15 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair69°F62°F78%1012.2 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair64°F63°F98%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILG

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr00NW30NW30000000S5W5SW5SW8SW5S6S7S9S9SE5SW30
1 day agoNW3W3W40W4NW30W3NW6N5N6NW4N7N7NW9NW10
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2 days agoNE3E4000SE3SE300SW3W3W5W5SW43W4W6SW5W4W50W3W5NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:17 PM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:24 PM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:43 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:28 AM EDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:33 AM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:58 PM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:34 PM EDT     1.76 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:11 PM EDT     -0.07 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:42 PM EDT     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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