Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 1:05 AM   Moonset 9:55 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KBOU 290904 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 304 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and drier conditions to start the week.

- Turning to cooler and possibly wetter Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Early this morning, weak showers continue to develop over central Lincoln County, but they should diminish shortly. The latest look at the flood advisory near Kersey shows it has crested and on its way back down. I will likely cancel this shortly. For today, it will be dry and warmer with high temperatures climbing back above normal this afternoon. A moderate zonal flow aloft will remain over CO, with gusty winds up to 35 mph in the mountains, foothills and near the Cheyenne Ridge. Tonight, a fast moving upper level disturbance will brush across the CO/WY border after midnight with a help of a 90 kt jet max. Snow showers will develop after midnight mainly in the mountains of Grand, Jackson and Larimer counties. There may be brief a embedded thunderstorm as well.
Across the urban corridor and nearby plains, west to northwest winds will start to push across those areas by 12z Tuesday morning.

After 33 years and 21 days I have worked my last midnight shift for the NWS. That's it, it's over, that ship has sailed! I have PUNished my coworkers long enough and decided to step aside and spend more time with my family, and hope to sleep a little better at night too. Someone else will have to pick up the mantle and share the bad dad jokes around the office. I am PUNting that duty to them. I have worked at 4 different NWS offices including Elko, Winnemucca, Salt Lake City and Denver/Boulder. I am tweener in that I grew up in Arvada and have worked at the previous office in Denver as well as Boulder. Yes, I am that old, maybe a better description is upper middle aged or seasoned. I am fortunate that I was able to come back home and forecast in CO for most of my career. We have weathered many storms together! (one last pun).
One such event was the Windsor tornado, that my partner tonight and I worked/warned together back in May 2008. Everything about it was atypical. My 33rd year with the NWS was actually marked by the passage of the partial solar eclipse on April 8th! While the shift work is the most difficult part of the job for most of us, it has been balanced by great friends/coworkers (past and present), and the fact that we provide a valuable service to the community. We appreciate your feedback. I am thankful for that and wish you all the best. To my NWS family, keep up the great work.
Vaya con Dios, Hasta Luego and Happy Trails. Foxtrot Mike Charlie signing off.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Mountain snow with rain mixed in over the mountains valley will be on going early Tuesday morning as an upper level trough passes over Montana and Wyoming. The rain and snow will decrease and dissipate as it encounters a downslope flow east of the mountains.
A shallow cold front will accompany this system, and temporarily bring cooler air. However, the downslope westerly flow will mix out the shallow cooler air by afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s across northeast Colorado.
The downslope flow will produce gusty westerly winds over the mountains, foothills, and near by plains with gusts to 40 mph.
Because of the recent rain/snow, fire weather concerns will be low.

Flow aloft turns southwesterly Wednesday in advance of an upper level trough moving southeast across the Northern Rockies. Models coming into better agreement showing the trough bottoming out over northern Colorado late Wednesday and early Thursday. This is expected to result in scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A cold front drops south across Colorado during the Wednesday, so the high temperature forecast will be tricky and will depend on the timing (morning or afternoon) of the frontal passage. Cooler air will be in place for Thursday. Will keep scattered showers in the forecast for Thursday, but the bulk of precipitation is expected to be east of the state.

Friday's weather looks quiet under a westerly flow aloft. Dry and mild conditions are expected, though it could be breezy or windy with a somewhat strong flow aloft. Could see a late day cold front from the north as another trough passes north of Colorado. More likely the cold front pushes through Friday night and brings slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday. Models indicate it should be too stable for showers or storms behind the front on Saturday.

Not much model agreement for Sunday. However the solutions, ridging or southwest flow ahead of a trough to the north, should result in dry and mild conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/
Issued at 1233 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. South/southwest will continue through this morning. For this afternoon, west/northwest winds will should develop around 20z. Winds speeds will generally range from 7-12 kts today. For tonight, there will be a return back to drainage by 02z.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Denver/Boulder, CO,