Thursday, October21, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Deer Trail, CO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:12PM Thursday October 21, 2021 3:44 PM MDT (21:44 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deer Trail, CO
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.71, -104     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KBOU 212052 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 252 PM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Temperatures slowly rise into the 60s over the plains and 40s/50s over the higher terrain this afternoon. Mountain wave clouds continue to provide mid-level clouds over the foothills and urban corridor. Visible satellite imagery shows signs of this cloud deck dissipating in Larimer, Clear Creek, and parts of Boulder County. This trend will continue into the evening hours and cloud cover will decrease. The region will be under the influence of an upper level ridge Friday which will promote above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Can expect high temperatures in the low 70s over the plains and upper 40s/50s over the higher elevations. Dry conditions will also prevail Friday.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 139 PM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021

This weekend will start off very nice on Saturday with WSW flow aloft ahead of a PacNW trough. There is actually some cold advection at 700 mb associated with the approach of the 700 mb trough, but it's only a few degC. This should translate into mid 60s across the plains and I-25 corridor, with 40s to around 50 deg in the mountain valleys and foothills. The southwest flow is exceptionally dry so there is no precipitation expected. Winds should also be fairly light throughout Saturday with a large lee trough all along the front range of the Rockies from Wyoming south into New Mexico.

Given how dry it's been outside of the mountains it's hard to start becoming optimistic about measurable precipitation but all available model systems continue to trend a little wetter each run in the early Sunday time frame. This is because of a short wave trough that should move across the northern Rockies early Sunday. The models have trended further south with the forcing and moisture. The trough axis looks to pass overhead Sunday morning, but even after it passes good lapse rates and west flow mean the northern mountains in Colorado will see decent snow into the afternoon hours. With a progressive trough still too far north for easterly upslope across the plains and Front Range, precipitation chances are low east of the Divide below 8,000 ft. For now it looks like the Park Range will receive the most snow, maybe 2-5", with lesser amounts across the Front Range and I-70 corridor like 0-2" as it looks now but things will likely evolve as we get closer to Sunday. However, there is also a 110 kt NW jet moving into eastern Colorado by mid morning that would result in pretty good lift in the left exit region. Feel the downslope component will be too much to overcome for anything more than sprinkles along the I-25 corridor but further east across the northeast corner there should be enough lift and an absence of downslope to generate some light rain through early afternoon. Cloud cover plus significant cold advection at 700 mb should mean a cooler day with highs in the low 60s across the plains.

On Monday and Tuesday the quick moving trough moves well east but a strong trough remains off the west coast. Monday is in between short wave troughs with strong southwest flow aloft. Warm advection is significant but results in less warming that previous model runs. For now, 700 mb temps look to be +10-12 degC which would translate into highs in the mid 70s across the plains. No precipitation is expected anywhere given the trough and best forcing should still be over the Great Basin by Monday afternoon. The moisture ahead of this trough initially is very weak both aloft and near the surface. Thus, the main concern for Monday is fire wx. Winds should gust over 30 mph across the plains with strong low level SW flow, and perhaps even windier in the mountain valleys, especially North Park. RH should be around 25% in North and Middle Parks where it will be windiest, but across the plains it will drop below 20%. Sure looks like just about all of our area will be elevated or even critical in terms of fire wx risk. A trough looks to impact Colorado sometime on Tuesday. GFS and GEFS are faster than the EC and EC ensembles so timing of the cooldown and increasing chances of precipitation are very hard to pin down. Fairly strong confidence in a cooldown however with 700 mb temps dropping below 0 degC (which would be a drop of 12- 15 degC) throughout the day. Given the recent trends of a further south trough, mountain snow should be more evenly distributed across north central Colorado, and will retain light PoPs across the plains though still no easterly upslope component so any precipitation that forms will be fighting strong downslope flow east of the Divide. Whatever precipitation that falls across the plains should remain in liquid form given model guidance that even the coldest ensemble members have wet bulb temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across the plains below about 6000 ft. Highs may only be the 50s on Tuesday across the plains with 30s to low 40s in the mountain valleys and foothills.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Winds will be light to variable during the day becoming southeasterly by early evening and turning to drainage overnight. Mountain wave cloud formation is contributing to the mid-level clouds today which will begin to improve towards the early evening hours. A similar wind pattern is expected tomorrow as a ridging pattern persists with light and variable winds into the afternoon becoming southeasterly.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SHORT TERM . Mensch LONG TERM . Schlatter AVIATION . Mensch


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KFTG

Wind History from FTG (wind in knots)
11
pm
12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
Last 24hrS8S8S7S8S9SW7SW4SW5W8SW9W4SW6SW7S5S8SE8SE6E6SE5NE40NE7NE5NE3
1 day agoSW4W4NW4N4N7NW5NW3W5W5NW7W8W500SE3SE6SE9SE8S7S9S7S7S8S9
2 days agoS9S10S8SW8S5W6SW6SW6W7SW5SW4W30SW3NW6NW7NW400SE4S6S6S4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.