Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hannibal, MO

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:16PM Saturday October 23, 2021 4:13 PM CDT (21:13 UTC) Moonrise 7:02PMMoonset 9:16AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hannibal, MO
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location: 39.71, -91.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 231941 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 241 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Sunday Night) Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

The focus for this forecast period continues to surround the threats of flash flooding and severe weather tonight through tomorrow night. Below are the key messages:

1) Severe thunderstorms are likely across the area tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Damaging winds (70-80mph), large hail (1"), and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) are all very real threats. There is also a small possibility of severe storms very late tonight in northern Missouri, with large hail being the primary threat.

2) Several rounds of thunderstorms will bring record rainfall to northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois late tonight through tomorrow afternoon. While some uncertainty still remains regarding where exactly the heaviest rain will fall, upwards of 3" of rain and locally-higher amounts are expected. Widespread flooding is not expected, but instances of flash flooding are possible.

Overnight:

Tonight, the warm front associated with a deepening surface low will lift north amidst a strengthening LLJ. In addition to bringing much more substantial moisture to the region, the LLJ will interact with the warm front to spark showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the boundary. Training convection will develop and pose a flooding risk starting tonight in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois, particularly after 03Z. The 12Z HREF probability-matched mean places a bullseye of nearly 2" of rain in this area around that time in 3 hours, and that bullseye moves north and expands before stalling in the far northern CWA. Earlier uncertainty regarding the warm front's position is beginning to wane, lending confidence to the location of these high totals. Thankfully, flash flood guidance remains high in this region (3-4" in 6 hours), meaning widespread flood concerns should remain relatively in check. However, locally- higher amounts and stronger rain rates in convection could certainly cause instances of flash flooding and flooding on smaller rivers and streams.

Initially, this activity will be occurring amidst ridging aloft, which would limit deep convection. However, as the shortwave trough enters the Mid-Mississippi Valley, marginally-steeper mid-level lapse rates introduce concern for elevated convection and marginally- severe hail. While 0-6km shear values of 40-50kts should be coincident with sufficient MUCAPE, thermodynamic profiles suggest quite robust low-level WAA and a deep warm layer below the elevated convection for any hail to fall through. While the threat for large hail overnight tonight/early tomorrow is non-zero, the threat for heavy rain/flooding is of greater concern in this area during that time.

Tomorrow:

Heavy rain in the vicinity of the warm front will persist through the morning, but as the boundary lifts further north with the advancing low in the afternoon, the focus for training convection will slowly shift north as well. Attention then turns to the threat for widespread severe thunderstorms amidst an environment favorable for all hazards. The potent shortwave enters the region during the late morning tomorrow, and the surface low deepens as it approaches as well. Broad diffluence ahead of the trough will allow for large- scale ascent within the warm sector of the low. 0-6km shear vectors of 40-50kts nearly orthogonal to an advancing pre-frontal surface trough and cold front suggest discrete supercells are likely when CI occurs during the mid-afternoon.

CAMs are in fairly consistent agreement on the evolution of the storm modes, but differ slightly on timing. Regardless, these supercells (which inherently have a threat of damaging wind and large hail) will form in an environment favorable for tornadoes. MLCAPE values exceeding 1000J/kg amidst 0-1km shear values ranging from 20-35kts across nearly the entire CWA during the afternoon are of particular concern. Long, curved hodographs and low LCLs depicted in model soundings further solidify the favorable kinematic/thermodynamic environment. However, a large source of uncertainty will be the extent to which cloud cover from ongoing convection will inhibit SBCAPE. Guidance tends to overestimate surface-based instability in situations where cloud cover from ongoing convection will be a factor. With that potential wrench in the chances for CI in mind, surface-based convection that does occur will organize in a manner favorable for all severe hazards.

The discrete cells will eventually grow upscale as the cold front catches up to them, and a QLCS is likely to develop in eastern Missouri during the early evening. The threat of hail would reduce, but damaging wind up to 70mph and tornadoes are still real threats as the line advances east through eastern Missouri and western Illinois. 0-3km shear values of 30-40kts nearly orthogonal to the line and ample instability increase the concern for tornadoes embedded in the QLCS. The threat for severe weather will end with the passage of the cold front, which will move from west to east through the evening and night. Lingering stratiform rain should persist through the overnight hours.

MRB

LONG TERM. (Monday through Next Saturday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

With multiple impactful hazards in the short term, very little attention was given to the extended forecast. However, very little is changed from the previous forecast issuance. Here are the key messages:

1) After an active few days, dry and seasonable weather is expected until mid-week.

2) Another storm system will approach the area on Wednesday, but it appears that thunderstorm chances will be severely limited.

Following the passage of the cold front late tomorrow night, dry air and seasonable temperatures will take hold of the region. Guidance is in good agreement that the area will enjoy a few days of calm conditions before another trough ejects east into the central CONUS. While there are notable differences among the upper-level flow pattern in the ensemble guidance, the repercussions for our area are fairly similar regardless. Just about all of these solutions severely limit the amount of moisture and instability that can reach our area, which equally limits the threat for thunderstorms. However, the differences do mean that timing is fairly uncertain for this next system. These details will be further refined in future forecasts.

MRB

AVIATION. (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

IFR CIGs developed earlier than expected in central Missouri, and while they may make it as far east as St. Louis, I'm not confident that we'll see CIGs that low and left MVFR at KSTL, KSUS, and KCPS for now. As a warm front lifts through the region overnight, thunderstorms will develop and impact the terminals to a certain extent. With uncertainty over when specific impacts will occur, left VCTS wording for a few hours for now at all sites except KUIN. The MVFR CIGs should follow the front and vacate the central Missouri and St. Louis terminals after 05Z. LLWS is an outside concern, but with little confidence that the surface winds will be light, I decided to leave it out of the TAFs.

The front stalls in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois overnight, where IFR CIGs and persistent rain will remain through the period. This rain will likely be heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms, and will also reduce VSBY to MVFR or lower. Thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Sunday, but this is beyond the valid TAF period.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

IFR CIGs developed earlier than expected in central Missouri, and while they may make it as far east as St. Louis, I'm not confident that we'll see CIGs that low and left MVFR at KSTL for now. As a warm front lifts through the region overnight, thunderstorms will develop and impact the terminals to a certain extent. With uncertainty over when specific impacts will occur, left VCTS wording for a few hours for now at KSTL. The MVFR CIGs should follow the front and vacate St. Louis after 05Z. LLWS is an outside concern, but with little confidence that the surface winds will be light, I decided to leave it out of the TAFs.

Thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Sunday, however the best chance for thunderstorms is likely to be after 00Z Monday at KSTL. Therefore, have left mention out for now.

MRB

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quincy Regional Airport-Baldwin Field, IL18 mi20 minE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds58°F41°F53%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUIN

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