Monday, October25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Forked River, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:04PM Monday October 25, 2021 3:12 PM EDT (19:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:12PMMoonset 12:02PM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 102 Pm Edt Mon Oct 25 2021
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of tstms late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tonight..S winds around 15 kt, becoming ne late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening. Showers in the late evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Showers in the morning. Showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue night..N winds 25 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Showers. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Thu..NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Fri night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 102 Pm Edt Mon Oct 25 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will surge northward through the region this morning as a surface low moves east through the ohio valley today, weakening as it approaches the appalachians and mid-atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop off the southeast coast today, lifting northeastward off the mid-atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday as it intensifies. This low is expected to stall just south of new england Tuesday and Tuesday night before pivoting eastward on Wednesday. Another strong surface low will move from the southern plains on Wednesday night to the northeast by the end of the week. This low will likely lift northeastward into the canadian maritimes during the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJ
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location: 39.83, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 251419 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1019 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will surge northward through the region this morning as a surface low moves east through the Ohio Valley today, weakening as it approaches the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop off the Southeast coast today, lifting northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday as it intensifies. This low is expected to stall just south of New England Tuesday and Tuesday night before pivoting eastward on Wednesday. Another strong surface low will move from the southern Plains on Wednesday night to the Northeast by the end of the week. This low will likely lift northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes during the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. No significant changes with the 10 AM update. Satellite clearly shows the low over the Midwest slowly pushing to the east while the low continues to develop off the southeastern United States coast. The warm front has started to lift to the north and is now located across northern New Jersey near the New York state line.

This remains a low confidence forecast. The warm front is much slower than any of the models had depicted even with the 00Z runs. I am also concerned that at least some 00Z models appear to have initialized with the center of the mid level low too far south and east compared to what 00Z soundings and satellite trends would suggest. If there is in fact more separation (distance wise) between the mid level short wave trough and the closed low, then it is possible the coastal low will develop further off shore. Cyclogenesis occuring entirely off the coast is already a notoriously high uncertainty pattern, and the previously mentioned trends just add to my uncertainty with this forecast.

That being said, this has the potential to be high impact for our region, so here is a summary of the potential hazards through Tuesday:

Heavy rain: Heavy rain at this point is my biggest concern, and the area of concern hasn't changed much, mostly coastal and northern NJ. There is potential that the axis of heaviest rain could be slightly further south along the southern NJ shore, so Cape May and Atlantic counties were added in to the watch. Additionally, based on guidance trends, increased the QPF slightly.

Severe Thunderstorms: Limited instability, but significant shear (both speed and directional shear) means that there is potential if any thunderstorms (or even just showers with a stronger updraft) develop, that stronger winds could mix down to the surface.

As far as timing, expect most of today to be dry, but some initial showers could move in or develop (especially if the warm front is still in the area) by late in the afternoon. The bulk of the rain should be from late this evening through much of the day on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Major storm just off the coast will be in the process of pivoting eastward Tuesday night and Wednesday as a digging vort max reaches the Mid-Atlantic. As it reaches the base of the longer-wave trough around 12z Wednesday, the orientation of the vorticity maximum will allow for the increase in eastward momentum of the main upper low by Wednesday afternoon. Of course, a number of questions remain about this process, since the interactions among the various perturbations and the predecessor impacts of widespread precipitation/convection in tandem with the rapidly deepening low are generally low- predictability phenomena. Nevertheless, with the notable model trends on keeping the low closer to the coast and for a little while longer, suspect stronger winds will linger near the coast for a time Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with gusts exceeding 35 to 40 mph probable along the immediate coast. Not out of the question a wind advisory will be needed for these areas. Additionally, showers will likely rotate south-southeastward on the west side of the low in much of the area Tuesday evening, slowly shifting eastward as the low begins its inevitable acceleration offshore. By Wednesday, most if not all of the precipitation should be done for the region, with breezy north winds also gradually declining during the day. Highs on Wednesday should range from the mid 50s in the Poconos to the mid 60s in Delmarva.

Sky cover may diminish Wednesday night as north to northeast winds slowly decrease, which may be favorable for some stronger cooling than on the previous night. Still, think winds will not completely decouple, so forecast lows are mainly in the mid 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Transient/amplified ridging on Thursday will quickly give way to the next strong system lifting northeastward from the southern U.S. Thursday night and Friday. A strong surface low will rapidly become vertically stacked with a large upper low in the Mississippi Valley Thursday night. A front will extend well eastward/southeastward from the parent low to the Southeast coast. Widespread precipitation/convection should occur in advance (north and east) of the front as it translates rapidly northeastward Thursday and Friday. Timing of impacts for our area looks most likely from early Friday morning into Friday evening, as a potent shortwave trough lifts northeastward on the east side of the upper low near the coast. Notably, a stiff easterly wind is likely as the system moves through the area, making for a rather unpleasant day.

Thereafter, the upper low will only make slow progress east- northeast into the Northeast Friday night and Saturday, as downstream ridging puts the brakes on the the closed low. Showery weather should continue during this period, with conditions slowly drying out Saturday night and Sunday, aided in part by a northern- stream vort max shifting eastward through southeast Canada on Sunday.

Temperatures during this period will generally be a few degrees above seasonal averages.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the day. There is a small chance that showers and storms could move into the region late this afternoon, but it is more likely that we will stay dry through the day. At KILG, KMIV, and KACY, winds will be southerly 5 to 10 kt, with some gusts near 15 kt possible through the day. For KPHL, KPNE, KRDG, KABE, and KTTN, winds will start light and variable, or even light easterly, but should eventually settle out of the south and southwest by mid day with speeds 5 to 10 kt with some gusts near 15 kt possible. High confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but moderate confidence on when the shift to southerly winds will occur for the TAF sites from KPHL northward.

Tonight . Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to spread over the region, especially after 00Z. Although some visibility restrictions will be possible in heavy rain and possibly even fog (especially after 06Z), the controlling element for flight category is expected to be the ceilings. MVFR ceilings are expected this evening as the rain first moves in, and IFR ceilings are possible after 03Z. Winds will start light southerly, but are expected to shift to northeasterly at 5 to 15 kt during the later half of the night. Variable and gusty winds will be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms and even some showers. High confidence that prevailing conditions will be below VFR for almost all of the 00 to 12Z period, but low confidence on other aspects of the forecast, especially timing details of flight category changes, and the lowest possible ceilings.

Tuesday . Prevailing MVFR or IFR mostly due to ceilings, though some visibility restrictions will be possible as well during the heaviest rain. Even areas that may see breaks in the rain (most likely to occur at KRDG), low clouds are expected to persist through the day. Winds starting light northeasterly, becoming northwesterly 10 to 20 kt, with higher gusts possible especially after 18Z. Non-convective low level wind shear is possible near the coast through the morning, including KACY. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on details and exact impacts at TAF sites.

Outlook .

Tuesday night . Sub-VFR conditions probable with scattered to numerous showers. North/northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts possible (stronger near the coast). Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Lingering sub-VFR possible, but conditions should gradually improve to VFR, with showers exiting the region. North winds 5 to 15 kt with higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Mainly VFR with light northeast winds Wednesday night becoming east 5 to 15 kt on Thursday. High confidence.

Thursday night and Friday . Restrictions likely with a good chance for showers (mainly on Friday). East winds 5 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt on Friday (stronger near the coast). Moderate confidence.

MARINE. SCA conditions are unlikely to develop, so have canceled the remaining Small Craft Advisory. Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through the remainder of today and this evening, though seas could get close to 5 ft on the NJ Atlantic Coastal waters late today.

By late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, northeasterly winds and seas should increase in response to a developing coastal low. Gale force winds are likely to develop by late Tuesday afternoon, but given considerable uncertainty in the timing of when this will develop, have issued a gale watch starting Tuesday morning. If confidence increases, this start time may be refined further.

Outlook .

Tuesday night and Wednesday . Gales likely (primarily Tuesday night for Delaware Bay). A gale watch is in effect. Conditions will be showery, with potential for some visibility restrictions as well.

Wednesday night . Advisory conditions for the Atlantic waters, with north to northeast winds gusting to 30 kt and seas of 6 to 9 feet. Sub-advisory conditions may occur on Delaware Bay.

Thursday . Sub-advisory winds, but seas will likely remain above 5 feet on the Atlantic waters.

Thursday night and Friday . Strong northeast to east winds will develop, with gales possible on the Atlantic waters on Friday. Seas may build to 6 to 10 feet.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As a major coastal storm develops tonight and lingers off the southern New England coast through Wednesday, strong northeast to north winds will develop along the coast Tuesday before becoming more northwesterly on Tuesday night. The high tide is on late Tuesday evening on the Atlantic coast, and the evolution of the winds will be critical in determining the degree of coastal flooding observed. Fortunately, astronomical tides will be low, so departures of 2-3+ feet are required for minor flooding to be observed. Given the rapidly strengthening system off the coast on Tuesday, these departures may be realized on the Atlantic coast if strong onshore winds last for a considerable duration leading up to the high tide. A period of northwest winds will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the low stalls, but if the low moves more southeastward (and more slowly) by Wednesday afternoon, winds may again become more northeasterly preceding the Wednesday night high tide. Another round of coastal flooding may occur for that high tide, as a result.

As the above suggests, the greatest threat for coastal flooding Tuesday evening through Wednesday night is on the Atlantic coast, with tidal flooding also possible on Delaware Bay. For now, think the threat is relatively low on the tidal Delaware River, with no tidal flooding expected on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay through Wednesday night.

CLIMATE. October 25th maximum temperature records and forecast:

. Record . Forecast

Allentown . 78/1963 . 74 Atlantic City . 79/2001 . 78 Atlantic City Marina . 79/2001 . 74 Georgetown . 81/2001 . 79 Mount Pocono . 75/1963 . 65 Philadelphia . 76/2010 . 78 Reading . 79/1963 . 75 Trenton . 77/1963 . 76 Wilmington . 79/2001 . 78

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday afternoon for NJZ001-007>010-012>015-019-020-022>027. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for ANZ450>455. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . Johnson/Meola Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/Johnson Marine . CMS/Johnson Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Climate . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi46 min 66°F4 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 26 mi42 min SE 12 77°F 1013 hPa67°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 36 mi54 min 68°F 66°F1012.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi60 min SW 12G17 75°F 60°F1011.1 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi96 min SSW 8.9G16 76°F 60°F1010.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi32 min S 12G14 66°F1010.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi54 min S 9.9G14 69°F 62°F1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi76 minS 11 G 1510.00 mi78°F58°F50%1011.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi12 minSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F58°F50%1009.9 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi16 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds77°F64°F64%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3--S5----0----------SE5--S7--S6--S4S7------S9
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1 day ago------------W6----------W4----------SW3----SW8--SW8
2 days ago--------------------------------------N5NW64----

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Stouts Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:37 AM EDT     0.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:35 PM EDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:31 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:13 AM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:38 AM EDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:00 PM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:23 PM EDT     1.45 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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