Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Felton, PA
May 7, 2024 2:14 PM EDT (18:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:26 AM Moonset 6:59 PM |
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 136 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 071521 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1121 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Central PA will remain in the vicinity of an oscillating frontal boundary through Wednesday morning, with one area of low pressure along the front passing north of the state early Wednesday. Another, more significant, wave of low pressure will pass south of PA Thursday. An upper level trough will then pivot into the region late this week into next weekend, cooling things down a bit, with temperatures near to slightly below normal.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Slow moving frontal boundary across southern PA late this morning will drift north through the day, helping to lift/thin out the low clouds and lingering light fog/haze that's been trapped beneath the shallow and relatively weak, near-surface based inversion.
RAP's sfc-based CAPE to the south of the aforementioned front were between 500-1000 J/KG, but shouldn't increase much this afternoon as a few deg C of warming aloft and meager mid level lapse rates advect east over the CWA
Plenty of sunshine will persist across the northern half of PA while variable amounts of clouds occur near and to the south of Interstate 80.
Temps through the rest of today will be unusually uniform from the higher terrain of northern PA to the typically warmer valleys in Southern PA, with highs in the low to mid 70s and roughly a 5 deg F or less spread. The temps will be 4-9F above normal with the greatest departures seen over the northern tier with much more sun there than in the South.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low pressure will move toward PA and wrn NY this evening, crossing the area overnight. PWAT values and CAPE will increase through the middle of the night and numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected with the greatest coverage and intensities over the W in the warm sector where the LLJet peaks in the evening and early night. Intense/near-severe storms shouldn't get much farther east than a BFD-UNV-AOO line. SPC has placed the SWrn corner of the CWA into the MRGL risk for svr wx as a cold front plows thru overnight.
Tonight should be very warm for early May due to the clouds and mild southerly flow before the cold front passes later at night.
Mins in the L60s will cover most of the CWA
Model guidance tracks the weak surface low north of PA Wednesday, with a weak trailing cold front coming through during the morning hours. Any morning showers should give way to increasing sunshine, as drier air works in behind the front. Model 850mb temps near 15C support highs ranging from the mid and upper 70s over the N Mtns, to the low and mid 80s in the valleys of Central/Southern PA.
Unsettled weather will return Thursday, as an upstream trough approaches from the Grt Lks. Latest guidance tracks the associated surface low south of PA, resulting in a rainy/cool Thursday, with elevated convection and a marginal risk of severe wx along the southern tier counties. Will likely be undercutting NBM temp guidance Thursday if current model trends hold. Raw operational model surface temps struggle to reach 60F over parts of the area Thursday. Latest ensemble plumes indicate most likely rain totals Thursday of around a half inch.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A notable trend toward cooler conditions for late this week through the coming weekend as a broad trough develops over the Glakes and Eastern U.S. with several smaller scale shortwaves moving southeast within the northern branch of the upper jet.
The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the positive tilt upper trough (and cold 700 mb temps falling to around -4C) will likely support scattered-numerous, mainly diurnal showers Friday through Sunday. A low-topped tsra cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon/early evening.
GEFS mean 850 mb temps slip to between +2 and +4C (or about -1 sigma) Friday night through Saturday, before rebounding a few deg C Sunday into Monday. Mean 925 mb temps of just 8-10C later Friday through Sat morning will likely top even cooler LLVL air under cloudy conditions.
This cool airmass (with Canadian origin and trajectory over Lake Erie waters still in the upper 40s to around 50F) will combine with numerous late morning through early evening showers across at least the Central and Northern part of the CWA Friday to likely yield the coolest day we'll see til this Autumn with high temps staying in the U40s in some spots across the Northern Mtns. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s will be common heading southeast from the Allegheny Front.
Temps will still be 2-5 deg F below normal over the upcoming weekend with mins at night near to a few deg F above normal due to varying amounts of clouds and at least a light breeze, which should limit any potential for frost to the patchy variety and confine it to the Northern Mountains Sat, Sun and Mon mornings.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Fairly widespread and locally dense fog and a low stratus deck that occurred early this morning across south central PA (near and to the south of a warm front), dissipated/lifted to a 5-7SM hz and CIGS AOA 1500 FT AGL.
Most or all of central PA will see VFR conds by 17Z today afternoon afternoon, with a few pockets of MVFR cigs in southern PA.
Isolated to scattered -SHRA will be possible during the day.
A warm front will lift northeast across western and central PA this afternoon and night, leading to a trend toward increasing areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms and a higher frequency of MVFR and brief IFR conditions, especially after 00z Wed.
Marginal LLWS will be possible, but left it out of the TAFs for now, as confidence is low. Drier air will begin to work into the western airfields around 12z Wed, but sfc fog may develop prior to sunrise as the low level moisture is slow to scour out.
Outlook...
Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA.
Scattered evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.
Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.
Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs likely. Scattered afternoon TSRA.
Fri and Sat...Showers with periods of low cigs possible.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1121 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Central PA will remain in the vicinity of an oscillating frontal boundary through Wednesday morning, with one area of low pressure along the front passing north of the state early Wednesday. Another, more significant, wave of low pressure will pass south of PA Thursday. An upper level trough will then pivot into the region late this week into next weekend, cooling things down a bit, with temperatures near to slightly below normal.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Slow moving frontal boundary across southern PA late this morning will drift north through the day, helping to lift/thin out the low clouds and lingering light fog/haze that's been trapped beneath the shallow and relatively weak, near-surface based inversion.
RAP's sfc-based CAPE to the south of the aforementioned front were between 500-1000 J/KG, but shouldn't increase much this afternoon as a few deg C of warming aloft and meager mid level lapse rates advect east over the CWA
Plenty of sunshine will persist across the northern half of PA while variable amounts of clouds occur near and to the south of Interstate 80.
Temps through the rest of today will be unusually uniform from the higher terrain of northern PA to the typically warmer valleys in Southern PA, with highs in the low to mid 70s and roughly a 5 deg F or less spread. The temps will be 4-9F above normal with the greatest departures seen over the northern tier with much more sun there than in the South.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low pressure will move toward PA and wrn NY this evening, crossing the area overnight. PWAT values and CAPE will increase through the middle of the night and numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected with the greatest coverage and intensities over the W in the warm sector where the LLJet peaks in the evening and early night. Intense/near-severe storms shouldn't get much farther east than a BFD-UNV-AOO line. SPC has placed the SWrn corner of the CWA into the MRGL risk for svr wx as a cold front plows thru overnight.
Tonight should be very warm for early May due to the clouds and mild southerly flow before the cold front passes later at night.
Mins in the L60s will cover most of the CWA
Model guidance tracks the weak surface low north of PA Wednesday, with a weak trailing cold front coming through during the morning hours. Any morning showers should give way to increasing sunshine, as drier air works in behind the front. Model 850mb temps near 15C support highs ranging from the mid and upper 70s over the N Mtns, to the low and mid 80s in the valleys of Central/Southern PA.
Unsettled weather will return Thursday, as an upstream trough approaches from the Grt Lks. Latest guidance tracks the associated surface low south of PA, resulting in a rainy/cool Thursday, with elevated convection and a marginal risk of severe wx along the southern tier counties. Will likely be undercutting NBM temp guidance Thursday if current model trends hold. Raw operational model surface temps struggle to reach 60F over parts of the area Thursday. Latest ensemble plumes indicate most likely rain totals Thursday of around a half inch.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A notable trend toward cooler conditions for late this week through the coming weekend as a broad trough develops over the Glakes and Eastern U.S. with several smaller scale shortwaves moving southeast within the northern branch of the upper jet.
The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the positive tilt upper trough (and cold 700 mb temps falling to around -4C) will likely support scattered-numerous, mainly diurnal showers Friday through Sunday. A low-topped tsra cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon/early evening.
GEFS mean 850 mb temps slip to between +2 and +4C (or about -1 sigma) Friday night through Saturday, before rebounding a few deg C Sunday into Monday. Mean 925 mb temps of just 8-10C later Friday through Sat morning will likely top even cooler LLVL air under cloudy conditions.
This cool airmass (with Canadian origin and trajectory over Lake Erie waters still in the upper 40s to around 50F) will combine with numerous late morning through early evening showers across at least the Central and Northern part of the CWA Friday to likely yield the coolest day we'll see til this Autumn with high temps staying in the U40s in some spots across the Northern Mtns. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s will be common heading southeast from the Allegheny Front.
Temps will still be 2-5 deg F below normal over the upcoming weekend with mins at night near to a few deg F above normal due to varying amounts of clouds and at least a light breeze, which should limit any potential for frost to the patchy variety and confine it to the Northern Mountains Sat, Sun and Mon mornings.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Fairly widespread and locally dense fog and a low stratus deck that occurred early this morning across south central PA (near and to the south of a warm front), dissipated/lifted to a 5-7SM hz and CIGS AOA 1500 FT AGL.
Most or all of central PA will see VFR conds by 17Z today afternoon afternoon, with a few pockets of MVFR cigs in southern PA.
Isolated to scattered -SHRA will be possible during the day.
A warm front will lift northeast across western and central PA this afternoon and night, leading to a trend toward increasing areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms and a higher frequency of MVFR and brief IFR conditions, especially after 00z Wed.
Marginal LLWS will be possible, but left it out of the TAFs for now, as confidence is low. Drier air will begin to work into the western airfields around 12z Wed, but sfc fog may develop prior to sunrise as the low level moisture is slow to scour out.
Outlook...
Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA.
Scattered evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.
Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.
Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs likely. Scattered afternoon TSRA.
Fri and Sat...Showers with periods of low cigs possible.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 42 mi | 56 min | SSE 4.1G | 73°F | 68°F | |||
| CBCM2 | 45 mi | 56 min | S 8G | 68°F | 29.76 | |||
| CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD | 45 mi | 56 min | E 5.1G | 75°F | 66°F | 29.77 | ||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 46 mi | 56 min | SSE 7G | 69°F | ||||
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 49 mi | 56 min | N 7G | 29.78 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTHV YORK,PA | 18 sm | 21 min | NE 04 | 9 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 64°F | 73% | 29.77 | |
| KLNS LANCASTER,PA | 21 sm | 21 min | var 03 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 79°F | 61°F | 54% | 29.77 |
Port Deposit
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:41 AM EDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT 2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:41 AM EDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT 2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.2 |
| 9 am |
| 3.1 |
| 10 am |
| 3.7 |
| 11 am |
| 3.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.3 |
Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:32 AM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:48 AM EDT 3.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:20 PM EDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:00 PM EDT 1.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:32 AM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:48 AM EDT 3.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:20 PM EDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:00 PM EDT 1.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.9 |
| 8 am |
| 2.6 |
| 9 am |
| 3.1 |
| 10 am |
| 3.2 |
| 11 am |
| 3 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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