Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Powhatan Point, OH
May 6, 2024 9:09 PM EDT (01:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 4:16 AM Moonset 5:59 PM |
Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 070033 AAA AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 833 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A muggy night, with patchy fog in some areas, is expected overnight. Severe weather potential increases Tuesday evening, after 6pm and could last into the overnight hours.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Fog will be possible late tonight in the wake of afternoon showers and storms, especially south of Pittsburgh
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A line of showers and storms in central WV will advance ewd this evening, and the lingering couple of showers currently north of this coherent line will trend toward dissipation this evening as broad upper support for convection wanes. With dewpoints quite high around 60F south of a BVI-IDI line, fog will be likely late tonight as the airmass stagnates.
Probability of fog (less than a half a mile in visibility)
ranges from 45% to 65% for areas south of I-70 in the 2a-8a timeframe, and probability of visibility less than one-quarter mile is in the 40-50% range. A Dense Fog Advisory may need to be issued for forecast zones south of Pittsburgh tonight but will continue to monitor at this time, as dry air invading from the north amid building high pressure may complicate the evolution of the airmass.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A passing warm front from the west will increase the risk of severe storms late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning - Hail, damaging wind, tornadoes, and flooding could occur with the passing disturbance - Highest probability for severe weather is in eastern Ohio - Ridging over the Great Lakes is expected to reduce precipitation chances briefly Wednesday afternoon/evening
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A strong low pressure system, which is impacting the Great Plains today, is expected to eject into the northern Plains/Dakotas on Tue. With a closed upper-lvl low positioned north over Newfoundland and the low to our northwest, ridging is expected to build briefly over the Great Lakes. Therefore, Tue is expected to stay mostly dry in the morning/early afternoon. A few stray showers may develop after 3pm Tue as the ridge axis quickly breaks down as a new surface low forms along a warm front in the Midwest.
The timing of severe weather is expected to be between 7pm Tuesday and 2am Wednesday. Despite the loss of sfc heating, the surge of warm, moist air from the south from a developing and progressing low-level jet will keep the region very unstable.
Little to no CIN, and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, are expected during the overnight time period. Effective shear will range from 45kt to 50kts and will support well-organized storms. Hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds are all possible with this passing disturbance. Very large hail (2+ inches, larger than a golf ball) may form in storms that have strong reflectivity above 25kft to 30kft, based on model soundings given a deep layer of drier air above 500mb to 300mb.
The potential of severe storms decreases after 2am Wed morning as mid-level ridging builds.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A new disturbance is expected to produce severe storms early Thu morning - Model ensembles suggest a very wet pattern into the weekend -------------------------------------------------------------------
Our region will continue to remain in an active weather pattern as a new low pressure system forms over the Great Plains early Wed, tracks east, and enters the Ohio River Valley early Thu morning. Severe storms could produce damaging wind, and/or tornadoes due to high shear and MUCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg. The low-level jet will likely be stronger than the Tue night disturbance. Hi-Res guidance suggests 850mb wind of 55-65 kt could be present.
A passing cold front may stir additional severe storms Thu afternoon southeast of Pittsburgh. However, the main threat will likely reside over the eastern CONUS (noted in SPC's Day 4 Outlook).
Model ensembles project a pattern shift late week as an elongated trough builds over the Great Lakes. Below-average temperature is likely Fri through Sun within northwesterly flow, and 850mb temperature could range from 2C to -1C. At the moment, the potential for frost/freeze concerns is considered low.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure centered north of Lake Erie will continue to promote VFR conditions for a majority of the region through much of the TAF period even as its slides toward upper NY. The notable aspects within it will be the encroachment of a warm front well south of the region that may nudge MVFR to localized IFR cigs to southern terminals (ZZV/MGW) Tuesday morning.
Additionally, diurnal heating is expected to promote bkn VFR cu through the afternoon (with a brief window of MVFR with cu initialization).
Broad but weak 700mb ascent coupled with moist advection within SW flow will maintain at least low probability showers (lower prob lightning) throughout the TAF period. However, timing of convection remains too difficult to pinpoint given weak forcing; only notable mention outside of a VCSH is at KMGW due to closer proximity to any potential shortwave moving within the 700mb flow.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in probability Tuesday afternoon and evening. The first line along a pre- frontal trough should dissipate/decay before reaching much of eastern OH between 21z-00z. The higher confidence line should move through the region between 02z-08z; be prepared for gusty wind and cloud to ground lightning with that convection.
Outlook
The active weather pattern will persist through the end of the week by promoting periods of showers and thunderstorms.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 833 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A muggy night, with patchy fog in some areas, is expected overnight. Severe weather potential increases Tuesday evening, after 6pm and could last into the overnight hours.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Fog will be possible late tonight in the wake of afternoon showers and storms, especially south of Pittsburgh
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A line of showers and storms in central WV will advance ewd this evening, and the lingering couple of showers currently north of this coherent line will trend toward dissipation this evening as broad upper support for convection wanes. With dewpoints quite high around 60F south of a BVI-IDI line, fog will be likely late tonight as the airmass stagnates.
Probability of fog (less than a half a mile in visibility)
ranges from 45% to 65% for areas south of I-70 in the 2a-8a timeframe, and probability of visibility less than one-quarter mile is in the 40-50% range. A Dense Fog Advisory may need to be issued for forecast zones south of Pittsburgh tonight but will continue to monitor at this time, as dry air invading from the north amid building high pressure may complicate the evolution of the airmass.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A passing warm front from the west will increase the risk of severe storms late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning - Hail, damaging wind, tornadoes, and flooding could occur with the passing disturbance - Highest probability for severe weather is in eastern Ohio - Ridging over the Great Lakes is expected to reduce precipitation chances briefly Wednesday afternoon/evening
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A strong low pressure system, which is impacting the Great Plains today, is expected to eject into the northern Plains/Dakotas on Tue. With a closed upper-lvl low positioned north over Newfoundland and the low to our northwest, ridging is expected to build briefly over the Great Lakes. Therefore, Tue is expected to stay mostly dry in the morning/early afternoon. A few stray showers may develop after 3pm Tue as the ridge axis quickly breaks down as a new surface low forms along a warm front in the Midwest.
The timing of severe weather is expected to be between 7pm Tuesday and 2am Wednesday. Despite the loss of sfc heating, the surge of warm, moist air from the south from a developing and progressing low-level jet will keep the region very unstable.
Little to no CIN, and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, are expected during the overnight time period. Effective shear will range from 45kt to 50kts and will support well-organized storms. Hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds are all possible with this passing disturbance. Very large hail (2+ inches, larger than a golf ball) may form in storms that have strong reflectivity above 25kft to 30kft, based on model soundings given a deep layer of drier air above 500mb to 300mb.
The potential of severe storms decreases after 2am Wed morning as mid-level ridging builds.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A new disturbance is expected to produce severe storms early Thu morning - Model ensembles suggest a very wet pattern into the weekend -------------------------------------------------------------------
Our region will continue to remain in an active weather pattern as a new low pressure system forms over the Great Plains early Wed, tracks east, and enters the Ohio River Valley early Thu morning. Severe storms could produce damaging wind, and/or tornadoes due to high shear and MUCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg. The low-level jet will likely be stronger than the Tue night disturbance. Hi-Res guidance suggests 850mb wind of 55-65 kt could be present.
A passing cold front may stir additional severe storms Thu afternoon southeast of Pittsburgh. However, the main threat will likely reside over the eastern CONUS (noted in SPC's Day 4 Outlook).
Model ensembles project a pattern shift late week as an elongated trough builds over the Great Lakes. Below-average temperature is likely Fri through Sun within northwesterly flow, and 850mb temperature could range from 2C to -1C. At the moment, the potential for frost/freeze concerns is considered low.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure centered north of Lake Erie will continue to promote VFR conditions for a majority of the region through much of the TAF period even as its slides toward upper NY. The notable aspects within it will be the encroachment of a warm front well south of the region that may nudge MVFR to localized IFR cigs to southern terminals (ZZV/MGW) Tuesday morning.
Additionally, diurnal heating is expected to promote bkn VFR cu through the afternoon (with a brief window of MVFR with cu initialization).
Broad but weak 700mb ascent coupled with moist advection within SW flow will maintain at least low probability showers (lower prob lightning) throughout the TAF period. However, timing of convection remains too difficult to pinpoint given weak forcing; only notable mention outside of a VCSH is at KMGW due to closer proximity to any potential shortwave moving within the 700mb flow.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in probability Tuesday afternoon and evening. The first line along a pre- frontal trough should dissipate/decay before reaching much of eastern OH between 21z-00z. The higher confidence line should move through the region between 02z-08z; be prepared for gusty wind and cloud to ground lightning with that convection.
Outlook
The active weather pattern will persist through the end of the week by promoting periods of showers and thunderstorms.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Pittsburgh, PA,
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