Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 2:38 AM   Moonset 1:05 PM

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FXUS61 KILN 020736 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 336 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm temperatures are expected again today as surface high pressure shifts off to our southeast. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop during the day on Friday as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
Surface high pressure will continue to shift off to our southeast today with light southerly flow developing across the region.
In the weak return flow, temperatures will moderate a bit from yesterday with afternoon highs mostly in the mid 80s. Surface dewpoints will also begin to increase through the day with SBCAPES in the 500-1000 J/KG range developing through the afternoon. Forcing is fairly weak but this may still be enough to produce some isolated thunderstorm development, mainly from mid afternoon onward, with the best chance for this across about the northwest half of our area. DCAPES this afternoon are progged to be around 1000 J/KG or so, so it will tough to rule out a few stronger wind gusts if some better updrafts are able to develop later this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Any lingering thunderstorm activity will taper off this evening with the loss of daytime heating with skies becoming mostly clear.

A mid level short wave will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley late tonight and into the day on Friday in developing southwest flow aloft. This will be accompanied by a weak surface wave that will lift northeast across our region through the day on Friday. This will result in an increase in clouds later tonight with showers and a chance of thunderstorms overspreading the region during the day on Friday. Instability and shear will remain fairly marginal and this will help limit any severe potential.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs on Friday ranging from the mid 70s west to the lower 80s east.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Looking like quite an active period in store for the extended forecast, persisting into next week with ridging set up in the southern stream and large scale troughing in the north. Temperatures throughout the extended remain above average... around 5-10+ degrees above climatological normals.

The northern jet stream trough located near the Hudson Bay area will be wrapping up and pulling its occluded/ cold front through the region during the overnight hours. Showers continue to work through the FA, moving from west to east. Forecast soundings still indicate some weak, elevated instability lingering, so have kept thunder in the forecast overnight. Overnight lows drop to the low 60s.

Saturday, a shortwave moving through the southern stream looks to ride up the larger flow pattern and move through the Ohio Valley.
Forcing with this one is weak but should be enough to promote showers/storms throughout the day on Saturday. Right now, highest probability of more widespread precip will be east of I-75, given placement and trajectory of shortwave (although, all areas will have a chance for thunderstorms given the humid airmass in place).
Overall, do not have high confidence in precip forecast. High temperatures in the mid/upper 70s.

More of the same on Sunday and Monday with another couple of shortwaves moving through the southern flow, bringing renewed chances for showers and storms. Again, forcing isn't overly impressive and therefore, signal for precip timing/location is weak.
Have gone with the blend and kept chance to low end likely PoPs in.

The next somewhat stronger signal for storms arrives mid-week as the upper level trough in the northern stream occludes with its surface low, pulling the cold front through the Ohio Valley. Interestingly, both CIPS Analog Guidance and Colorado State Machine Learning both light up during this time. However, right now we're still too early to really have much confidence. Will be something to watch.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Some high level clouds will drift across the area at times through the morning hours. As we begin to destabilize through the day, scattered cumulus will develop into this afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible from mid afternoon into the early evening, primarily for areas along and north of I-70. However, chances appear low enough to leave a mention out of the TAF attm. Any thunderstorms activity will dissipate through mid evening.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday through Monday. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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