Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Colwyn, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:50PM Monday September 27, 2021 4:13 AM EDT (08:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 12:19PM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430
ANZ400 402 Am Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build northward from the southeast states through today. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday. A broad surface high will move southeastward towards new england for the remainder of the week. An area of low pressure may move into the region into next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colwyn , PA
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location: 39.9, -75.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 270736 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 336 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build northward from the Southeast states through today. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday. A broad surface high will move southeastward towards New England for the remainder of the week. An area of low pressure may move into the region into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Another quiet day in store with slightly warmer temps today to start the work week.

A weak vorticity maximum is currently moving into portions of New England this morning, which has pushed a broken cloud deck into the northern half of the forecast area. These will linger through the morning with a partly cloudy sky across the Poconos into Northern New Jersey. The rest of the region should be mostly clear through the better portion of the day with only a few afternoon fair weather cumulus building. With high pressure building northward from our south, return flow will set up from the southwest with another breezy afternoon. This will pump temperatures upward a few degrees with highs making it into the upper 70s and closer to 80.

To our west, a shortwave trough will move into the Great Lakes region, with a cold front moving across the Midwest at the surface. This front will move into the Ohio Valley tonight with a pre-frontal trough setting up across our region ahead of it. The hi-res guidance has continued with a faster trend with this front, thanks to a stronger surface high building in its wake across the Midwest. A few thunderstorms may try to work their way into our western zones by early morning. Am not completely sold on this yet with any instability being all mid-level, and forecast MLCAPE values are only several hundred J/kg at that. With some steep mid-level lapse rates over 7 C/km, there could be some small hail with these. The surface inversion should keep gusty winds mostly above us through the overnight hours.

Given the increase cloud cover and a slight increase in dew points amidst the southerly flow, trended lows a little warmer tonight with mostly low 60s across the region. Some mid to upper 50s are still possible in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. An Omega blocking pattern will be developing across the central CONUS during the Tuesday-Tuesday night periods. By daybreak Tuesday morning, a shortwave trough axis and associated mid-level vorticity maxima will be pushing into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, a cold front will be nearing the region from the eastern Great Lakes and Upstate New York areas. This front will cross the forecast area from north to south and be offshore/south of the area shortly after midnight.

Guidance suggests that the southwesterly return flow ahead of the front will be sufficient to support convection, potentially in a few rounds. Scattered nocturnal convection will probably be ongoing around daybreak associated with the initial vorticity maxima approaching from upstream. This activity should be focused mainly near and north/west of the Philly metro (where elevated instability will be highest) and will be moving generally eastward through the remainder of the morning. An additional round of convection is expected to develop along the cold front and possibly any remnant boundaries associated with the morning convection into the early/mid afternoon hours, mainly near and south of the Philly metro. This activity is expected to move southeastward and offshore during the late evening hours.

Severe potential should remain limited, but will certainly need to be monitored. Diurnal instability will be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range along with deep layer effective shear around 20-25 kts. Mid- level lapse rates around 7 C/km and DCAPE >700 J/kg could result in fairly strong updrafts and downdrafts with small hail and strong winds possible with the stronger cells that develop. This setup does have modest synoptic forcing, so it could have a couple surprises up its sleeves. Nevertheless, the Marginal Risk advertised by SPC (near and south of Philly) seems reasonable at this point. PWats around 1.3-1.5" along with a progressive storm motion should preclude any widespread notable flash flood threat.

Expect mostly cloudy skies with highs in the low-mid 70s north/west of I-95 and around 80 degrees near/south of the Philly metro. Winds will be from the west ahead of the front, then turn northerly behind the front around 5-10 mph with higher gusts during the day. Expect lows falling into the upper 40s to 50s for most along with clearing skies.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A closed upper low meandering across southern Quebec, New England, and the Canadian Maritimes and ridging across the Midwest Wednesday through Friday will result in an Omega blocking pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS. Guidance still varies in how quickly this blocking pattern will break down into the weekend, but this will ultimately keep Hurricane Sam well out to sea at our latitude as it begins racing poleward Friday and Saturday. At the surface, weak and cool high pressure will remain entrenched across the region through at least Friday.

Long story short, this will be a largely quiet and tranquil period of weather for the region, at least through Friday/Saturday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with highs in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees and lows in the 40s to low 50s. We could perhaps see some frost potential across northwest New Jersey and the southern Poconos Thursday night depending on how the positioning of the surfacing ridging sets up. Expect northerly winds around 5-10 mph along with partly cloudy skies. Cloud coverage appears probable to increase into the weekend though. Given that a consensus in guidance suggests this pattern will begin to break over the weekend, have maintained the slight chance of showers for Sunday.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR with a scattered mid-level cloud deck in the morning, mainly north of the Philly terminals. Light southwest winds increasing to 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots late morning into this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR with southwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. Low-level wind shear is also possible in the early overnight from 02-04Z out of the southwest around 35 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of the daytime hours (lingering into the evening for MIV/ACY). Restrictions are probable with any showers and storms that develop near or over terminals. Winds initially westerly around 5-10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts will shift northwesterly by 21Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Tuesday night . Prevailing VFR. Lingering showers and storms should end in the 03-06Z time frame. Winds northerly around 5 kts or less. High confidence.

Wednesday through Friday . Prevailing VFR. Some patchy fog possible in the pre-dawn hours. Winds north to northwesterly around 5-10 kts during the daytime and 5 kts or less at night. High confidence overall.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions through the morning with southwest winds increasing into the afternoon from 10 to 15 knots with gusts reaching 20 to 25 knots after 4 pm. With a greater chance for wind gusts of 25 knots or greater over the New Jersey coastal waters, issued a Small Craft Advisory that will be in effect from 4 pm this afternoon through 6 am Tuesday. Seas from 2 to 3 feet this morning will increase to 3 to 5 feet this afternoon and into the overnight.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Sub-advisory conditions expected. Westerly winds around 10- 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas 2-4 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Tuesday night . Sub-advisory conditions expected. Winds becoming northerly around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas 2-4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms moving out to sea after midnight.

Wednesday through Friday . Sub-advisory conditions expected. Winds northerly around 10-15 kts. Seas 2-4 feet.

Rip Currents .

A MODERATE risk of rip currents is anticipated for the NJ coast on Monday, with a LOW risk expected for the Delaware Beaches. By Tuesday, with the medium period swell diminishing, and off shore flow continuing, a LOW risk is currently forecast for the coast of both NJ and DE.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>453.

Synopsis . Davis/Staarmann Near Term . Davis Short Term . Staarmann Long Term . Staarmann Aviation . Davis/Staarmann Marine . Davis/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 4 mi56 min 60°F 69°F1016 hPa
BDSP1 9 mi56 min 63°F 68°F1016.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 13 mi56 min 64°F 72°F1016.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 22 mi98 min SW 4.1 G 6 60°F 65°F1015.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi56 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 58°F 65°F1016.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 30 mi56 min WSW 4.1 G 8 60°F 73°F1016.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 30 mi56 min 59°F 74°F1016.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 41 mi56 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 73°F1017.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi56 min WSW 11 G 13 64°F 73°F1017.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi44 min Calm 57°F 1017 hPa53°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA2 mi20 minSW 310.00 miFair60°F52°F75%1016.4 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA17 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair56°F49°F77%1016.5 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA17 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair51°F50°F94%1016.6 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ20 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair56°F51°F84%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHL

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Penrose Avenue Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Penrose Avenue Bridge
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Mon -- 01:15 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:15 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.81.12.43.84.5554.43.42.41.610.60.92.23.94.95.55.75.24.43.42.5

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Mon -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:38 AM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:44 AM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:51 PM EDT     1.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.7-00.910.60.4-0.1-0.9-1.4-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.50.111.40.90.3-0-0.7-1.3-1.4-1.3

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