Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:33 AM   Moonset 4:24 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1037 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Sunday - .
Rest of tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of drizzle. A chance of rain late this evening, then rain likely. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Mon night - W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1037 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through tonight before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Sunday night for portions of the waters. Additional small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters by the middle part of next week.

FXUS61 KCTP 050314 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1114 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cloudy skies with areas of light rain, drizzle and fog will persist throughout the weekend. High pressure slowly building eastward from the central Great Lakes will bring some drying and brightening to northern and central Pennsylvania by Monday and Tuesday, but the south will remain on the cloudy side with some showers. The pattern remains unsettled mid to late week with weather systems bringing rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday, and Wednesday night into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Boundary layer convergence continues to ramp up this evening over central PA as 850 mb jet amplifies in rich deep layer moisture environment combined with easterly llvl maritime flow.
This will continue to support widespread light rain and drizzle throughout central PA through the overnight and keep temperatures within a few degrees of current readings through 12z Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday will be unseasonably cool with slowly decreasing easterly flow from off of the western Atlantic, as we start to see an increasing southerly component in time. This will lead to a slight rebound in warmth over especially western/southwestern periphery of the CWA as steadier precip tapers off. Fcst highs should range from 55F in the Endless mtns and southern Poconos to ~70F in the far southwest corner of the CWA (near Confluence in Somerset County).

Even with the advancing warm sector, scattered diurnal convection appears likely to the west of the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon which could spill into central PA late in the day as CAPE values increase. The SPC MRGL risk SWO clips a portion of Warren County. Everywhere else remains under general thunder.

The CAD pattern loses its grip Sunday night into Monday as a weak cold front presses southeast from Lake Erie. This will allow for the possibility of night time convection along the cold front. Guidance has been bullish on fog development and the mention of it has increased in coverage in the wx grids. Fcst lows Sunday night are +10-20F above climo for early May in the low 50s to near 60F.

Temperatures are forecast to bounce on Monday with fcst maxes getting back into the 70-80F range. High pressure and low pwat air should dry out the northern tier, but nearly stationary frontal zone will maintain a chance of showers/t-storms over south central PA through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upper level ridging over PA indicates warm and generally dry conditions are likely Tuesday. However, a warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley could result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties. The bulk of medium range guidance supports a very warm Wednesday with scattered convection, as the area briefly breaks into the warm sector south of a weak low tracking across upstate NY. A round of convection may accompany the trailing cold front. Ensemble mean pre-frontal 850mb temps around 16C suggests max temps as high as the mid to upper 80s are possible over the Lower Susq Valley.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms appears to be on Thursday associated with a deepening upstream trough and wave of low pressure riding along the stalled cold front just south of PA. The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area by Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support scattered, diurnally-driven convection Friday and Saturday, along with a downward trend in temperatures. EPS mean 850mb temps by Saturday are only around 3C, which is supportive of highs ranging from just the mid 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A moist southeast flow preceding a slow-moving warm front in the Ohio Valley will produce low cigs and rain across the forecast area through at least Sunday morning. At 02Z, some MVFR cigs are noted across the eastern half of the state. However, all guidance points to deteriorating conditions overnight with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs by early Sunday morning. LIFR cigs are most likely where the southeast flow is forced to ascend the higher terrain of Central PA. Strengthening south-southwest winds aloft will result in marginal LLWS overnight into Sunday morning. Bufkit soundings indicate the best chance of LLWS criteria being met will across the northern tier of the state.

Little improvement in flying conditions are expected over most of Central PA Sunday, as a moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic persists. However, model soundings indicate some modest improvement is possible late in the day along and west of the spine of the Alleghenies.

Outlook...

Mon...AM low cigs/fog likely.

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible, mainly Southern PA. Isold PM tsra impacts possible Western PA.

Wed...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns.

Thu...Rain/low cigs possible. PM tsra impacts possible southwest PA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2), Tide feet

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