Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Yoe, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:57PM Monday September 27, 2021 2:58 AM EDT (06:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:43PMMoonset 12:25PM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 136 Am Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
Overnight..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Am Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight. The high will move offshore Monday before another cold front is poised to cross the waters late Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will build southward toward the waters through the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yoe , PA
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location: 39.92, -76.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 270235 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1035 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Fall weather pattern in full swing across central PA as the calendar flips from September to October. A few rain showers later Monday into Tuesday, otherwise dry and seasonable conditions with cool nights for the rest of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Satellite loop at 0230Z shows broken mid level cloudiness streaming into northern Pa in advance of a warm front lifting through the Grt Lks. Satellite trends and model RH fields suggest skies will be mostly cloudy on balance tonight across northern Pa and becoming partly cloudy in the south.

Upstream radar is showing a batch of showers over Lake Huron just in advance of a mid level vort max. As this feature dives east-southeast, can't rule out a few showers/sprinkles over northern Pa toward dawn. Model soundings look pretty dry below 800mb, so measurable rainfall still seems unlikely.

Cloud cover and an active southwest breeze should result in minT 3-7F warmer than last night across the northern and western parts of the forecast area. Lows should range from the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. On Monday, central Pa should break into the warm sector south of weak low pressure tracking through the eastern Grt Lks. Model consensus keeps the bulk of cloud cover and any showers north of the PA/NY border. Mostly sunny skies and warm advection will help boost maxTs into the 70-80F range or about +5-10F warmer than Sunday. A tight pressure gradient between the low to the north and high pressure to the south should result in a fairly gusty southwest breeze Monday. Bukfit soundings support gusts of 20-25kts across the northern mountain and 15-20kts elsewhere.

There is a pretty consistent model signal for some convection to develop over central PA late Monday night ahead of a cold front dropping southeast from the lower Great Lakes. Steepening mid level lapse rates and MUcape values of 500-1000 j/kg per 12Z HREF mean will support scattered showers and possible elevated t-storms. MinTs in the 55-60F range early Tuesday morning should be the warmest all week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Models agree that a cold front will cross over PA during the day Tuesday which will prompt scattered showers and possible tstorms. QPFs are light at this time, but locally higher amounts will be possible under storms. Progged instability and shear both look marginal, so the severe potential appears low.

The cold front will exit our area by Wednesday and Canadian high pressure builds in. Seasonable to slight below average temperatures, NW flow, and mostly sunny skies are likely from Wednesday to Friday. Temperatures these nights will be on the chilly side, and we could very well dip into the 30s across the Northern Mountains with radiational cooling under clear skies.

Model spread and forecast uncertainty increase by late next weekend. A cut off upper low in the vicinity of northern New England is progged to open up and slowly lift out by late next weekend. However, models differ on how fast this occurs, which affects the timing of an upstream shortwave approaching from the Grt Lks. The 18Z GFS is most progressive, indicating a chance of showers as early as Saturday night. However, the bulk of model guidance remains slower. 12Z ECENS plumes support introducing a low chance of showers Sunday or Sunday night.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. For the 18Z TAF package, looking at VFR conditions into Monday.

Any low CIGS and showers would be after this period, and most likely not any period of time other than Tuesday. Overall the week looks to feature mainly dry conditions with low humidity levels and early fall like temperatures.

LLWS will be possible later tonight and early Monday, near the NY border, where low and mid level winds will be a bit stronger from the west.

Outlook .

Tue . Predominantly VFR with a few passing showers/iso t-storm possible associated with FROPA.

Wed-Fri . VFR/no sig wx.

CLIMATE. Harrisburg's latest 90-degree day on record is Oct. 7 in the 1941. With summer in the rearview mirror and given the fall pattern going forward, it's probably safe to say that there won't be any more 90 degree days this year.

So in 2021, Harrisburg likely finishes with 34 days where the maximum temperature was >= 90F. That ties 2010 and 1955 with the 14th highest on record. The top 3 are 1966 (60), 1944 (48), and 1943 (46). h/t @ajuklo for the callout on Twitter.

More interestingly, 2021 currently ranks 2nd for the number of days with minimum temperatures >= 70F in Harrisburg. The top 3 are 2020 (50), 2021 (48), and 2016 (42). 8 of the top 10 years are in the 2000s Those warm summer nights.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Fitzgerald SHORT TERM . Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM . Fitzgerald/Wagner AVIATION . Martin CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi58 min Calm G 1.9 63°F 76°F1016.9 hPa (+0.6)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 49 mi58 min W 7 G 8 63°F 1017.2 hPa (+0.7)
FSNM2 49 mi58 min W 11 G 12 66°F 1017 hPa (+0.6)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 53 mi58 min SSW 1 G 1.9 58°F 73°F1017.3 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA11 mi65 minWSW 610.00 miFair63°F45°F52%1016.9 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA21 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair61°F47°F60%1016.5 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA24 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair56°F47°F72%1016.8 hPa
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA24 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair58°F47°F67%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTHV

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--34SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W4W4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W6NW10SW65W5W6W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:38 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:54 AM EDT     1.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:26 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:08 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.333.33.43.232.72.321.81.61.61.722.22.22.11.81.51.10.90.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:18 AM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:39 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:20 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:01 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.22.42.42.21.81.41.10.80.60.60.711.31.61.81.71.61.20.90.60.50.61

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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