Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Byers, CO

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:01PM Sunday January 16, 2022 5:25 PM MST (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 4:42PMMoonset 7:37AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Byers, CO
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location: 39.94, -104     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 162326 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 426 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Monday) Issued at 317 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022

Quiet weather in the near term, with the forecast area on the downhill side of a ridge to the west and the winter storm on the east coast. Here in Colorado the surge of northerly winds has moved through on the plains, with little impact on temperatures. North winds tonight will be overcome by the nighttime inversion relatively quickly this evening and then turning more southerly early Monday. Later in the day yet another shift to the north on the northeast plains.

For temps, radiational cooling tonight with the usual cold spots. National Blend guidance was probably not cold enough around Greeley and in Middle & North Parks where radiational cooling likes to bust a forecast. Added in some MOS guidance there to bring those areas down. For max temps on MLK day, 700 mb temperatures about 3-4C warmer than today, putting plains in the mid/upper 50s. Little change in max temps in the mountains.

Very dry air to continue tonight over the mountains with dewpoints in the single digits, even out onto the adjacent plains. Had to add in a bit of bias corrected data blend to bring those down to observed. Dewpoints forecast to rise a few degrees tomorrow with southerly flow, but RH values will remain quite low with warmer temperatures. Fortunately there is snow on the ground in the driest areas.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 317 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022

A series of shortwaves and cold fronts will move across the area this week. There's decent agreement on a weak wave Tuesday that has a stronger surface reflection, then a wave with more dynamics aloft for late Wednesday. There's less agreement about the details of another wave about Friday, though there's pretty good consensus that there's something there.

We'll have some high clouds Monday night, though they might be transient and it's hard to tell if there will be enough to keep the cold spots from tanking again. The current forecast and our blend hedge on this a bit and that looks alright, it would be appropriate for a partly cloudy night. Tuesday's wave brings more high clouds at first, but then a decent low level cold front which gets overrun enough to generate a mid level cloud deck. With most of our area experiencing continue low level stability, the strong cooling aloft won't actually produce much colder daytime temperatures at the surface. Highs will be slightly lower in most places, though temperatures could be dropping through the 40s with windy conditions Tuesday afternoon making it feel colder.

For Tuesday night through Wednesday night, the QG lift from the Tuesday wave passes but leaves a pattern with some weak overrunning of the cold air over the plains which will likely keep cloud cover in place. As the next wave approaches, low level convergence will increase as the colder plains air is drawn westward. There's still not much going on in the mid to upper levels Wednesday, but the increasing convergence/moisture depth/lift in the lower kilometer or two of the atmosphere may be enough for some light precipitation, especially over the northeast corner where the cold air will be deepest. It's probably cold enough for snow, but there could be a little freezing drizzle in there somewhere, most likely near the northern border early Wednesday. It shouldn't be more than a couple hundredths of an inch, but it doesn't take much to cause problems. As the next shortwave passes, there will be a little more QG lift aloft Wednesday night with a chance of light snow across the area, but this too passes quickly. There are hints of a weak secondary trough trailing the main one early Thursday, but by that time all of the low level convergence is going away, so it may be hard to get any snow from that to the surface. We'll keep some low PoPs for the mountains and eastern/southern edges of our area Thursday morning for that.

After that, it's a drier environment again for the rest of Thursday into Friday. Temperatures should warm a little, but the low levels will lag behind as there's not much wind and probably some easterly component over the plains. The next wave Friday looks to bring another band of lift and a weak cold front for another chance of light snow. Details differ with the strength of that cold push and whether our temperatures drop much. It looks like we'll have a drier NNW flow behind it for Saturday becoming more northwesterly Sunday with some retreat of the cold air likely if the Friday front wasn't that strong. Blended temps in the 40s Friday/Saturday with some lower 50s near the foothills Sunday look alright.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 426 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022

VFR will prevail through Monday with high clouds continuing to stream over the region. Northeast to east winds will turn clockwise to the southeast around 02Z to 03Z and then southerly around 06Z. For Monday, winds will be light and will be under 10 knots most of the day.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SHORT TERM . Hanson LONG TERM . Gimmestad AVIATION . Meier


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Link to 5 minute data for KFTG

Wind History from FTG (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrSE6E6E6E7SE4S8S11S10S10S9S6SW5W4W3NW30W4--SW60NE4NE400
1 day ago--NE3E5NE4SE6SE6S6S8------------------SW6--SW6SW6S4SE3--
2 days agoN7NE7----N30W5W6SW5SW7S6------------S5SW4SW3SW300E4

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