Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Island Heights, NJ
May 19, 2024 3:03 PM EDT (19:03 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:30 PM Moonset 3:33 AM |
ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 102 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
This afternoon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 3 seconds.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 102 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - An area of low pressure moves offshore to our south today. High pressure then builds across our area through Wednesday. A cold front approaches and swings through the area on Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday with another low pressure system approaching by next weekend.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 191430 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1030 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure moves offshore to our south today. High pressure then builds across our area through Wednesday. A cold front approaches and swings through the area on Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday with another low pressure system approaching by next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1030 AM...We are still seeing quite a bit of cloud cover across the area at this time. While some of the early morning mist/fog and stratus has started to lift, areas that have seen some clearing have started to see strato cu develop due to the solar insolation acting on the abundant low level moisture. So expect that the overall trend will be for more clouds than sun through at least around mid afternoon or so. Sky cover was increased some for today with the mid morning update. Even by late this afternoon, it may not get much better than partly sunny across much of the region given the plentiful low- level moisture to work with. Towards the western flank of the marine layer, could even be a pop-up shower, most likely out in Berks County. The insolation and general lack of rain should allow most areas to pop back into the 70s, except near the shore.
Short-term guidance suggests a new push of marine clouds will move into the region tonight, so have another mostly cloudy forecast tonight. If clouds are less widespread, fog may become an issue, but for now have kept it patchy in the forecast. Lows mostly in the 50s again.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The short term period will be focused mainly on the mid to upper level ridge that approaches and builds overhead through the period. At the surface, broad high pressure over New England will expand southwest and become elongated into the Appalachian region Monday. The high will sink south of the region on Monday night before moving offshore late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
During this period, dry conditions are expected with mostly sunny skies during the day and mostly clear skies at night.
With the clear skies and light winds overnight, expect a favorable setup for radiational fog Monday night and possibly again on Tuesday night. Its less clear if there are any more likely areas for fog development, so have a mention of patchy fog across the region Monday night. Have left out a mention of fog for Tuesday night at this time, as there may be some increasing clouds if a prefrontal trough starts to approach our region then.
In terms of temperatures, it is looking like we will return close to normal on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. For Tuesday, winds become more southerly as the high shifts offshore resulting in warmer temps being brought north. Generally looking at the upper 70s to low 80s for Tuesday. However, with rather light surface winds, this should allow a sea breeze circulation to develop each day, so do anticipate cooler high temperatures closer to the coast. Given how cold the water temperatures still are, there is potential for the sea breeze to develop early and then reach far enough inland that highs for most, if not all, of the coastal plains could be slightly lower than the current forecast. However, hard to determine those details this far out, so have stayed close to a blend of guidance for high temperatures both days.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Summary: Main focus through the long term is on a cold front which is expected to cross through the region Thursday into Thursday night bringing a chance for thunderstorms. High pressure will return in the wake of the front with another disturbance that approaches by next weekend.
Details:
Wednesday...Upper ridge axis will shift offshore on Wednesday.
There continues to be poor run-to-run consistency on if there will be a pre-frontal trough in the region as early as Wednesday afternoon. For now, have kept any mention of thunderstorms (and just a slight chance at that) confined to Berks County, Lehigh Valley, and the southern Poconos through the day, and generally along and west of the 95 corridor Wednesday night.
Thursday...There actually appears to be less model agreement on the timing of the front as compared to previous model runs. Some models (most notably the GFS) depict the cold front passage as early as Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Given how late we are in the season, and the fact that the mid and upper level low should be slowing as the surface front approaches, I think this is the more unlikely scenario. Thus, have stayed close to the previous forecast and a blend of other guidance with the cold front generally arriving from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. With the location of the mid and upper level trough over the Great Lakes, this keeps the better forcing north and west of the area. However, with enough surface instability aided by diurnal heating, this should support at least scattered thunderstorm develop across the area. This is supported quite well by analog- based guidance. Temps should be above average again and close to Wednesday temperatures, assuming the later timing of the front holds.
Friday and Saturday...The forecast for Friday and Saturday is quite uncertain and depends on how far the front makes it past our area. Unsurprisingly given how quickly it is depicting the arrival of the front, the GFS remains the most aggressive with the progression of the front, bringing in high pressure into the area on Friday and most of Saturday. ECMWF keeps the front stalled just south of our region through Saturday. As a result of the uncertainty in the timing and evolution of the front, have used a blend of guidance, which keeps at least slight chance of showers through the weekend
However
the upcoming weekend will probably not be a washout as almost all guidance shows at least some period of dry weather. However, due to the differences in the timing, it is hard to determine when the dry period could be.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...Primarily a mix of VFR and MVFR this morning with intervals of IFR possible either due to cigs dropping or patchy fog. Cigs and vsby should rise to VFR this afternoon. Light northeasterly winds will be variable at times. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...MVFR cigs/vsby looking likely again with continued light easterly flow. IFR possible with any patchy fog or lower clouds. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Monday through Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some visibility restrictions possible in BR and FG Monday night and Tuesday night.
Wednesday night through Thursday...MVFR or even IFR possible with thunderstorms especially on Thursday.
MARINE
Conditions over the waters will be sub SCA through tonight with seas 3 to 4 feet. Northeast may gust to around 20 knots but stay below SCA levels.
Outlook...
Sunday night through Thursday...No marine headlines are expected.
Fair weather expected through Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday.
Rip Currents...
A prolonged period of N to NE winds at 10 to 15 mph during the day and 5 to 10 mph at night will continue today and Monday.
Along with 3 to 4 ft seas, this will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today and Monday at New Jersey and Delaware beaches.
The rip current risk may be low for most of the day Monday for southern New Jersey beaches.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1030 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure moves offshore to our south today. High pressure then builds across our area through Wednesday. A cold front approaches and swings through the area on Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday with another low pressure system approaching by next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1030 AM...We are still seeing quite a bit of cloud cover across the area at this time. While some of the early morning mist/fog and stratus has started to lift, areas that have seen some clearing have started to see strato cu develop due to the solar insolation acting on the abundant low level moisture. So expect that the overall trend will be for more clouds than sun through at least around mid afternoon or so. Sky cover was increased some for today with the mid morning update. Even by late this afternoon, it may not get much better than partly sunny across much of the region given the plentiful low- level moisture to work with. Towards the western flank of the marine layer, could even be a pop-up shower, most likely out in Berks County. The insolation and general lack of rain should allow most areas to pop back into the 70s, except near the shore.
Short-term guidance suggests a new push of marine clouds will move into the region tonight, so have another mostly cloudy forecast tonight. If clouds are less widespread, fog may become an issue, but for now have kept it patchy in the forecast. Lows mostly in the 50s again.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The short term period will be focused mainly on the mid to upper level ridge that approaches and builds overhead through the period. At the surface, broad high pressure over New England will expand southwest and become elongated into the Appalachian region Monday. The high will sink south of the region on Monday night before moving offshore late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
During this period, dry conditions are expected with mostly sunny skies during the day and mostly clear skies at night.
With the clear skies and light winds overnight, expect a favorable setup for radiational fog Monday night and possibly again on Tuesday night. Its less clear if there are any more likely areas for fog development, so have a mention of patchy fog across the region Monday night. Have left out a mention of fog for Tuesday night at this time, as there may be some increasing clouds if a prefrontal trough starts to approach our region then.
In terms of temperatures, it is looking like we will return close to normal on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. For Tuesday, winds become more southerly as the high shifts offshore resulting in warmer temps being brought north. Generally looking at the upper 70s to low 80s for Tuesday. However, with rather light surface winds, this should allow a sea breeze circulation to develop each day, so do anticipate cooler high temperatures closer to the coast. Given how cold the water temperatures still are, there is potential for the sea breeze to develop early and then reach far enough inland that highs for most, if not all, of the coastal plains could be slightly lower than the current forecast. However, hard to determine those details this far out, so have stayed close to a blend of guidance for high temperatures both days.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Summary: Main focus through the long term is on a cold front which is expected to cross through the region Thursday into Thursday night bringing a chance for thunderstorms. High pressure will return in the wake of the front with another disturbance that approaches by next weekend.
Details:
Wednesday...Upper ridge axis will shift offshore on Wednesday.
There continues to be poor run-to-run consistency on if there will be a pre-frontal trough in the region as early as Wednesday afternoon. For now, have kept any mention of thunderstorms (and just a slight chance at that) confined to Berks County, Lehigh Valley, and the southern Poconos through the day, and generally along and west of the 95 corridor Wednesday night.
Thursday...There actually appears to be less model agreement on the timing of the front as compared to previous model runs. Some models (most notably the GFS) depict the cold front passage as early as Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Given how late we are in the season, and the fact that the mid and upper level low should be slowing as the surface front approaches, I think this is the more unlikely scenario. Thus, have stayed close to the previous forecast and a blend of other guidance with the cold front generally arriving from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. With the location of the mid and upper level trough over the Great Lakes, this keeps the better forcing north and west of the area. However, with enough surface instability aided by diurnal heating, this should support at least scattered thunderstorm develop across the area. This is supported quite well by analog- based guidance. Temps should be above average again and close to Wednesday temperatures, assuming the later timing of the front holds.
Friday and Saturday...The forecast for Friday and Saturday is quite uncertain and depends on how far the front makes it past our area. Unsurprisingly given how quickly it is depicting the arrival of the front, the GFS remains the most aggressive with the progression of the front, bringing in high pressure into the area on Friday and most of Saturday. ECMWF keeps the front stalled just south of our region through Saturday. As a result of the uncertainty in the timing and evolution of the front, have used a blend of guidance, which keeps at least slight chance of showers through the weekend
However
the upcoming weekend will probably not be a washout as almost all guidance shows at least some period of dry weather. However, due to the differences in the timing, it is hard to determine when the dry period could be.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...Primarily a mix of VFR and MVFR this morning with intervals of IFR possible either due to cigs dropping or patchy fog. Cigs and vsby should rise to VFR this afternoon. Light northeasterly winds will be variable at times. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...MVFR cigs/vsby looking likely again with continued light easterly flow. IFR possible with any patchy fog or lower clouds. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Monday through Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some visibility restrictions possible in BR and FG Monday night and Tuesday night.
Wednesday night through Thursday...MVFR or even IFR possible with thunderstorms especially on Thursday.
MARINE
Conditions over the waters will be sub SCA through tonight with seas 3 to 4 feet. Northeast may gust to around 20 knots but stay below SCA levels.
Outlook...
Sunday night through Thursday...No marine headlines are expected.
Fair weather expected through Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday.
Rip Currents...
A prolonged period of N to NE winds at 10 to 15 mph during the day and 5 to 10 mph at night will continue today and Monday.
Along with 3 to 4 ft seas, this will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today and Monday at New Jersey and Delaware beaches.
The rip current risk may be low for most of the day Monday for southern New Jersey beaches.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44091 | 22 mi | 38 min | 56°F | 3 ft | ||||
| JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ | 34 mi | 94 min | N 7 | 67°F | 30.04 | 58°F | ||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 36 mi | 34 min | SSE 5.8G | 57°F | 56°F | 29.98 | 55°F | |
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 36 mi | 46 min | E 2.9G | 73°F | 64°F | 29.98 | ||
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 36 mi | 46 min | SSE 8G | 64°F | 62°F | 30.00 | ||
| BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ | 41 mi | 88 min | E 4.1G | 70°F | 62°F | 29.97 | ||
| ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ | 44 mi | 46 min | 59°F | 59°F | 29.93 | |||
| MHRN6 | 48 mi | 46 min | E 7G | |||||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 49 mi | 46 min | ENE 6G | 70°F | 29.96 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMJX OCEAN COUNTY,NJ | 10 sm | 67 min | ESE 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 70°F | 57°F | 64% | 29.99 | |
| KNEL LAKEHURST MAXFIELD FLD,NJ | 14 sm | 63 min | NE 06 | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 57°F | 57% | 29.96 | ||
| KBLM MONMOUTH EXECUTIVE,NJ | 17 sm | 67 min | E 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 70°F | 57°F | 64% | 29.99 |
Coates Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:32 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:03 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:36 AM EDT 0.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:15 PM EDT 0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:12 PM EDT 0.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:32 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:03 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:36 AM EDT 0.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:15 PM EDT 0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:12 PM EDT 0.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Coates Point, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:23 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:32 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:55 AM EDT 1.50 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:09 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:50 AM EDT -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:35 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT 1.84 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:38 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:23 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:32 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:55 AM EDT 1.50 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:09 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:50 AM EDT -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:35 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT 1.84 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:38 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.9 |
| 1 am |
| -1.3 |
| 2 am |
| -0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| -0.6 |
| 10 am |
| -1.2 |
| 11 am |
| -1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| -2 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -1 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.7 |
Philadelphia, PA,
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