Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 4:02 AM   Moonset 4:55 PM

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FXUS61 KILN 051342 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 942 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region into the middle part of next week, leading to occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Slightly cooler and drier air will return by the end of the week, although rain chances may persist at times into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Subtle adjustments were made to the ongoing fcst this morning, mainly to sky cover/temps as an axis of clearing has worked its way into the Miami Valley and Tri-State regions, allowing for temps to jump a bit quicker than the cloudier surroundings.
Nevertheless, the main expectations for today remain unchanged as a few ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop by mid afternoon, particularly near/E of I-71 into central OH, as a weak front moves through the area. There is some hint of stronger deep layer shear and instability overlapping near the Columbus metro in the afternoon, as represented by SPC marginal risk, so an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out.
Forecast highs are generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s (especially in N KY).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An area of high pressure will be moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday night while zonal upper level flow persists. South of the high, a cold front is expected to be sinking southward into the Ohio Valley. The frontal boundary is forecast to reach near the Ohio River before stalling late overnight into the early morning hours.
Rain chances should remain fairly low overnight and confined to the warm sector south of the cold front. Winds shift to the north behind the front. Lows drop into the 50s north of the front while remaining the the lower 60s south of the front.

The surface high remains to the north of the Ohio Valley on Monday which helps keep the stalled front near or just north of the Ohio River through the day. A fairly strong dew point gradient and small temperature gradient should be observed by the afternoon. Areas south of the front should have dew points rising into the 60s while areas north of the boundary have forecast dew points remaining in the 50s. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain mostly confined to areas in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky in the afternoon where some instability may develop overlapping the best moisture. Very isolated locally heavy downpours in slowly moving shower/storms could develop.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Broad upper level troughing over the western two thirds of the CONUS will shift slowly east through mid week, keeping the Ohio Valley in persistent west to southwest flow aloft. This will allow for a series of embedded mid level short waves to move through the region Tuesday through Thursday. At the surface, a frontal boundary along the Ohio River will lift north across the area through the day on Tuesday with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. This will combine with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to produce surface based capes into the 1500-2000 J/kg range. This will result in fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday into Tuesday evening and with strong deep layer shear develop through the day, some severe storms can be expected.

A trailing cold front will push southeast across our area Tuesday night before stalling out heading into Wednesday morning. There is then some uncertainty as to how far back to the north the front will lift through the day on Wednesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Along and south of the boundary, good instability will develop with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms possible once again. With strong deep layer shear persisting and the approach of a surface low, severe storms will again be possible.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

A cold front will then push off to our southeast later Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to lower pcpn chances and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Additional short wave energy dropping down across the Great Lakes will help deepen the trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday through Sunday. This will keep us in a cooler airmass with daytime highs in the 60s to lower 70s. This will also keep some lingering lower end chances for showers and a few thunderstorms through the weekend.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Stagnant and moist conditions have been left in the wake of prior convection which has resulted patchy BR and MVFR/IFR ceilings forming. MVFR/IFR ceilings are forecast to continue developing this morning thanks to abundant low level moisture ahead of an approaching front. Although BR should mix out shortly after sunrise, MVFR ceilings may linger until around 1800z before scattering and lifting. After 1800z, VFR ceilings are expected for the rest of the daytime hours. This afternoon, the best chances for showers/storms are limited to the Columbus sites during the afternoon. MVFR conditions may redevelop after 0600z Monday along with BR.

Winds remain light and variable until after 1200z. Westerly winds increase to around 10 knots later this morning thanks to a front moving through the area. Winds are expected to take on more of a northerly, then northeasterly, component after 0000z behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times each day through Thursday. MVFR conditions are possible Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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