Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Springfield, OH

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:37PM Sunday January 16, 2022 7:31 PM EST (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Springfield, OH
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location: 39.95, -83.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 170008 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 708 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. A low pressure system tracking northeast through the region is resulting in wintry precipitation that will change to all snow to much of the area through tonight. Scattered snow showers are likely Monday as an upper level disturbance moves through the Ohio Valley. Additional precipitation chances arrive midweek, with overall temperatures remaining generally below normal through the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. 00Z ILN sounding shows a warm nose of 1.5C at 2900 ft AGL. This is much warmer than any numerical guidance was showing, including most recent HRRR and RAP runs. Thus precipitation type has been a wintry mix with many areas reporting extended periods of sleet and/or freezing rain.

Still believe that guidance trends are correct in that lower levels will be cooling soon resulting in a change over to snow. Already starting to see that in northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio. So forecast update blended observed conditions into previous forecast over the next few hours. However, that is going to result in a decrease in snow amounts with an inclusion of some ice.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Even though the primary surface low will have already exited the region, additional snow accumulations will be possible again on Monday as a H5 S/W trough swings through the ILN FA. Model soundings show a period from near daybreak through the late afternoon hours where steep low-level lapse rates, weak instability and saturation near -10C will provide scattered snow showers across most /if not all/ of the area during the daytime period. Trended PoPs even higher and with higher SLRs present on Monday with the colder, drier air mass building in, it won't take much liquid-equivalent precip to accumulate snow to a few tenths of an inch. Wouldn't be surprised if a few spots pick up around a half an inch or so of additional snowfall, which may create minor travel issues with the subfreezing pavement temps. Additionally, gusty winds of 20-30 MPH may also create some reduced visibilities where snow is occurring (especially in heavier bursts of snow shower activity), and may allow snow that has already fallen to drift back onto roadways.

The snow shower activity will wane very late in the day, but a favorable fetch off of Lake Michigan, as well as some saturation in the DGZ, will keep flurries probably going for locations near/north of I-70 into the evening. Highs Monday will top out around 30 degrees with that brisk WNW wind. We dry out Monday night as temps dip into the teens and lower 20s. A few spots with a healthy snowpack may dip into the lower teens.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The period begins with a fairly deep H5 trough propagating towards the eastern CONUS. As this trough pushes eastward away from the Ohio Valley, flow aloft will turn from northwesterly to westerly during the day Tuesday. A broad area of surface high pressure nudges in from the southeastern US and will offer a brief period of dry conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures trend closer to seasonal normals on Tuesday and will actually climb a few degrees above normals for Wednesday in the lower to middle 40s.

A low pressure system tracking eastward through the northern Plains and Great Lakes region will swing a cold front through the ILN fa later in the day Wednesday. Ahead of the front, we will see increasing PoPs Wednesday afternoon. Thermal profiles across much of our CWA will support efficient melting of the ice crystals and thus favor more rain than snow. However, locations around and north of I- 70 appear to mix in more snow than rain. With warmer pavement/ground temps and most ice crystals melting, accumulating snowfall seems limited and doesn't appear to have any major impacts as of now. Will continue to monitor trends in p-type based on thermal profiles for the pcpn Wednesday and Wednesday night.

An arctic air mass settles in on Thursday and provides us with some of the coldest temperatures of the year for a multi-day period. Across the fa, high temperatures are expected to remain in the 20s both Thursday and Friday. Additionally, low temperatures in the single digits may be felt for a number of locations. Fortunately, the weather pattern does remain dry during this time frame as surface high pressure out of Canada builds across the Midwest.

A subtle increase in temperatures (but still below seasonal norms) will be felt across the Ohio Valley next weekend, but the overall flow pattern will still be characterized by a trough over the Midwest with several embedded shortwave troughs ejecting through. The lack of appreciable moisture in this dry air mass keeps the fa dry for now across majority of global model and ensemble members, but would not be surprised to observe light precipitation scoot through portions of our fa next weekend with some of this upper- level energy.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. May still see some freezing rain or sleet at some of the terminals for another hour or two. But after that expect precipitation to be all snow. Conditions will be IFR or lower at the Columbus terminals as well as KILN during the early part of the TAF period with improvement after 07Z. At other locations may see a brief visibility drop to IFR but otherwise remain MVFR or better. There will be improvement at from KDAY to KCVG/KLUK between 03Z and 05Z.

Although flight conditions will temporarily improve, winds will be backing and strengthening. Another disturbance will drop across the region around or just after 12Z. This will bring scattered snow showers and MVFR ceilings. Enough uncertainty in coverage that far out in time to only use VCSH, but there will be the potential to have visibility drops to IFR. West northwest winds may gusts to around 25 kt during the day. Ceilings may start to improve late in the TAF period.

OUTLOOK . MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ046-054- 055-063-072-078-079. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ056-064-065- 073-074-080>082-088. KY . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ093- 096>098. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ099-100. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . KC NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . KC LONG TERM . Clark AVIATION .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield, Springfield-Beckley Municipal Airport, OH8 mi36 minN 71.75 miLight Snow28°F0°F%1005.1 hPa
Dayton / Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH16 mi96 minNE 93.00 miLight Snow29°F23°F77%1006.1 hPa
Dayton, Cox Dayton International Airport, OH22 mi36 minNNE 82.00 miLight Snow30°F23°F75%1005.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGH

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