Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:43 AM   Moonset 3:48 PM

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FXUS63 KGID 042111 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 411 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost in low lying areas of Dawson and Valley Counties will be possible early Sunday morning.

- Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening. All forms of severe weather including tornadoes are possible. Initially thunderstorms may be more isolated across our western zones and then become more widespread as they track east across our eastern zones.

- Overall most areas should begin to dry out Tuesday onward with just small chances for mainly isolated light rainfall events through the remainder of the forecast period. Most areas will likely (70-80%) remain dry or see less than 0.10 Tuesday through Saturday.



DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Tonight (Some Minor Frost Possible Lexington to Ord)...

The wind will be light and the skies clear with a drier airmass in place behind last nights storm system. Therefore, temperatures should drop off rather quickly and most model guidance indicates lows Sunday morning in the upper 30s to around 40 across much of our forecast area. However, in our traditional cold spots from Lexington to Ord, we could slip into the mid 30s for lows Sunday morning including some localized patchy frost mainly in rural low areas.

Sunday...

Southeasterly winds will increase through the day bringing slightly warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints back to the region. Highs will mainly be in the upper 60s for most areas.

Sunday Night through Monday Night (Severe Weather Threat)...

Our main forecast concern through the week ahead centers around our severe thunderstorm potential Monday afternoon/evening. We can not rule out a small chance (20-40%) of some warm air advection showers or thunderstorms late Sunday night into early Monday morning, but not looking like too big of a deal at this point with most models indicating little to nothing for precipitation through dawn Monday morning.

A dry line will track east across the forecast area on Monday with westerly winds and dewpoints only in the 20s and 30s behind the dry line, but southerly winds and dewpoints in the 60s out ahead of it. Models vary on how soon thunderstorms could form along and ahead of this dry line. Our 40-80 NBM POPS Monday morning are probably on the high side and may need to be lowered with future forecast updates. Most thunderstorms should hold off until Monday afternoon, with increasing chances of thunderstorms ahead of the dry line the later we get into the afternoon and evening. The big question will be how quickly will this front push east across the forecast area. Most models currently have this dry line pushing through the Tri-Cities between 3 and 5 PM with the severe weather threat increasing as we get later into the day, which will favor areas especially just east and southeast of the Tri-Cities. That being said, we are still 2 days out and this front could slow down or even speed up, which would impact our thunderstorm timing and threat level.

Synoptically this is very favorable early May pattern for a plains severe weather outbreak, but probably favoring Kansas a bit more than Nebraska. Many questions remain, for example, how much sun will we see on Monday to increase our instability? Hopefully things will become more clear as we get closer, but right now the pattern is at least favorable for yet another severe weather episode worthy of keeping an eye on. Storm mode is another concern with this system now just getting within the window of some of our mesoscale models, which indicate that thunderstorms could rather quickly form into a line, perhaps another QLCS.

Tuesday through Saturday...

As stated in the key points above this should be an overall drier period with most areas seeing little if any precipitation through this outer forecast period. We still have some small NBM POPs in our forecast, but the pattern does overall become drier.
Temperatures will really be rather nice with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.



AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Clear to mostly clear skies are expected to persist throughout most of the TAF valid period with VFR conditions. A breezy northerly wind this afternoon will decrease around sunset and then become more easterly and eventually southeasterly overnight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.

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