Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Petersburg, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:14PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 4:54 PM CDT (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:08PMMoonset 6:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Petersburg, IL
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location: 40, -89.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 191943 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 243 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Mild Autumn temperatures continue one more day Wednesday, but a cold front will sweep across central Illinois and bring widely scattered showers and storms. Expect afternoon temperatures in the 70s Wednesday, but cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s are expected Thursday and Friday behind the front.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Low pressure is analyzed over NW KS/SW NE this afternoon while high pressure is in place centered over the southern Appalachians. Between these two features, breezy S/SSW winds will continue across central Illinois through sunset, then expect winds to taper off as the boundary layer decouples this evening. The occluding low is expected to lift across Iowa to Wisconsin Wednesday and Wednesday evening with a cold front pushing across Central Illinois during the late afternoon and evening. Guidance continues to suggest a narrow ribbon of 300-600 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place immediately ahead of the front though soundings do indicate that a fairly stout cap will be in place. Given the later arrival of the cold front after peak heating and moderate CINh, convection will struggle and will likely stay fairly limited in coverage meaning some locations may not see any precip with frontal passage. If the cap is able to erode and any pockets of sunshine are able to increase heating and resulting instability further, then ample deep layer shear of 40-50 kt will be more than sufficient to support an organized severe thunderstorm threat. Have low confidence in this conditional threat, but it is best across portions of the Illinois River Valley where instability will be strongest as the front starts to approach the area. Instability will wane with time and eastward extent due to the timing of the front after sunset.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

A broad, flat upper trough will be carved out across the Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday and Friday as cold air advection behind the cold front spreads across the Midwest and the Ohio Valley. Surface low over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to lift northeast away from the local area but a secondary trough trailing the low will sink south across Illinois later in the day Thursday. This trough will support increased cloud cover and perhaps some isolated sprinkles as low level lapse rates steepen in response to the colder air overspreading the region. The depth of any instability does stay shallow under a sharp 850mb inversion, so will not include any mentionable PoPs at this time.

Surface high centered over the Canadian Prairies will spread south across the Great Plains and portions of the Mississippi Valley Thursday then shift east across Illinois Friday and Saturday. This cooler Canadian air mass will result in temperatures falling below normal to end the week. Fridays highs will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s while overnight lows dip into the 40s for most of central Illinois and portions of the Illinois River Valley dipping into the 30s.

Meanwhile, an upper ridge will build across the Rockies Friday and spread east across the Midwest Saturday into Saturday night. Right behind it, a potent shortwave and attendant surface low will move from the central Great Plains Sunday into the Upper Midwest Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday as a warm front lifts across the region, then again Monday with a trailing cold front.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

VFR conditions and S/SSW winds will prevail through the rest of today into tomorrow. Gusts of 15-20 kt are possible this afternoon and early evening. Slightly stronger gusts are expected Wednesday afternoon. Showers and storms are possible Wednesday but beyond the current TAF valid period.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Deubelbeiss SHORT TERM . Deubelbeiss LONG TERM . Deubelbeiss AVIATION . Deubelbeiss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield - Abraham Lincoln Capital Airport, IL17 mi63 minS 810.00 miFair70°F45°F41%1018.2 hPa
Jacksonville Municipal Airport, IL22 mi80 minS 11 miFair70°F46°F42%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSPI

Wind History from SPI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S6S7S8S9S8S7S8S7SW4S3S5S4S4S6S7S7S9SW10
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1 day agoNW6NW30000SW30SW30000000S4S4S6S7S10SW6
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2 days agoW11
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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