Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Girt, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:09PM Thursday October 21, 2021 6:03 PM EDT (22:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:51PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 403 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of sprinkles until late afternoon. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 403 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure over the great lakes continues to track to the northeast, and this will drag a cold front across the region tonight through Friday. That front becomes nearly stationary over the mid- atlantic as high pressure establishes itself through the weekend. Low pressure then develops along that front and impacts the region possibly into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Girt , NJ
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location: 40.13, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 211916 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over the Great Lakes continues to track to the northeast, and this will drag a cold front across the region tonight through Friday. That front becomes nearly stationary over the Mid- Atlantic as high pressure establishes itself through the weekend. Low pressure then develops along that front and impacts the region possibly into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A warm afternoon in progress with a mostly sunny sky as we await a cold front.

Synoptic Overview . A large closed low centered near James Bay Canada will remain in place there through Friday. Meanwhile, a separate closed low tracking across the eastern Great Lakes will continue to weaken as it shifts northeastward and gradually merges with the James Bay closed low. At the surface, low pressure will track well to our north however its cold front approaches late tonight before shifting to our east during Friday.

As the influence of the upper-level troughs mentioned above gradually approaches our region tonight, a southwesterly low- level jet on the order of 40 knots is forecast to slide across our area. This occurs mainly overnight. Some increase in moisture is expected with this and therefore clouds, especially mid to high level, will increase through the night. Much of the lift associated with the weakening lead trough in the eastern Great Lakes goes to our north, however the present of a low- level jet and a boost in the warm air advection may result in a few brief showers across portions of the region. We therefore maintained some mainly slight chance PoPs, which is mostly north and west of the Fall Line tonight then perhaps our far south and southeast zones Friday morning. Due to the increasing cloud cover and continued warm air advection tonight, low temperatures should be well above average (50s for most of the area, and around 60 near and southeast of the I-95 corridor).

As we go through Friday, a potent closed low remains near James Bay. A surface cold front will cross the area Friday morning, and cold air advection commences across the region. At least some guidance suggests that there will be two fronts, with the more colder air located with the second front later Friday. As a result, Friday looks to be the step down day as we go from the rather warm airmass of today (Thursday) to a colder one. The chance of showers looks very low as dry air and weak lift remains. There should be a decent amount of mid/high clouds around Friday with more of the upper-level trough settling in along with multiple shortwaves moving within the flow. A narrow corridor is possible, centered near I-95, that could get more sunshine longer. Given the passage of the cold front along with more clouds all yields in cooler temperatures.

The upper-level trough is forecast to amplify more into the East Friday night. This results in increasing cyclonic flow with the continuation of several shortwaves. This leads to a more challenging cloud cover forecast. Given the cooler airmass, cyclonic flow and shortwaves, there should be areas of at least mid level clouds moving through at times especially as the night progresses. Based on the added cloud cover, continued to go with low temperatures at least a little higher compared to a clear/calm setup.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Although surface high pressure begins to establish itself from the Ohio Valley down to the Southeast states, a deep upper trough remains over the Northeast. Shortwave energy will rotate around the base of the trough and through the region Saturday through Saturday night before departing on Sunday.

Conditions will be fairly dry at the surface, and there will not be much in the way of lift. Will carry a slight chance for PoPs, mainly across the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and far northwest New Jersey. QPF will be minimal, at best. It will probably end up being more sprinkles than anything.

What this trough will do, however, is keep the region cloudy for Saturday. Although skies partially clear out for Saturday night, there may be enough cloud cover to keep optimal radiational cooling conditions from developing. A light northwest flow will allow for cooler air to seep into the region. Lows will generally be in the upper 30s in the far northern zones and otherwise in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures will be warmer along the coasts.

Upper trough will lift into eastern Canada, and more of a zonal flow sets up across the region. Surface high pressure will slide off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A bit more sun early, at least compared to Saturday, then clouds begin to sill in from the west due to developing low pressure.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. After a quiet weekend, conditions become a bit more active going into the new week.

Low pressure will develop and organize over the Central Plains over the weekend, and a warm front will extend out from that low south of the region. As the low lifts to the north and east, that front will begin to lift north through the region starting Sunday night.

Overrunning precip will develop along the boundary, but it may take some time for the lower levels of the atmosphere to moisten up enough for precip to develop. Will generally go with light rain, at least initially, then a chance of rain to the north.

From there, there is little consistency among the models as to where this low will track. The GFS is fairly progressive, having it pass south of the local area and off the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night through Tuesday. The Canadian has a secondary low forming off the Mid-Atlantic coast ahead of the primary low Monday night through Tuesday, and then the primary low would become incorporated within the new low, possibly resulting in a period of heavy rain along the coast. ECMWF is slower than the GFS, and is showing signs of strengthening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. For now, will follow NBM and cap PoPs at chance, due to the differences among the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian.

There may be a break in the rain on Wednesday before another system approaches on Thursday.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon . VFR. South-southwest winds around 10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR overall. South-southwest winds 4-8 knots, becoming light and variable for a time this evening at some terminals. Southwesterly low-level wind shear anticipated for a short duration from late this evening into the overnight hours. A few brief showers cannot be ruled out mainly at RDG/ABE during the late evening. Moderate confidence.

Friday . VFR. West to west-northwest winds 5-10 knots during the day, then becoming mostly light and variable at night. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . VFR. Any SHRA will be light with few restrictions. NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . VFR. W winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday through Tuesday . Sub-VFR conditions possible in SHRA. Low confidence.

MARINE. South to southwest winds increase through much of tonight well ahead of a cold front. A southwesterly low-level jet of 40 knots will also move across the region tonight into early Friday morning. There is expected to be enough mixing within the shallow boundary layer to get gusts of 25-30 knots for a time tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into Friday morning for the New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coastal water zones, and just for the first half of tonight for lower Delaware Bay. The advisory continues for a little longer on the ocean zones Friday morning due to 5 foot seas subsiding as the winds shift to westerly. The conditions are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria on the upper Delaware Bay.

Outlook .

Saturday through Monday . Sub-SCA conditions expected with NW winds peaking from 15 to 20 knots each afternoon. Seas from 2 to 3 feet.

Tuesday . SCA conditions possible.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ431.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Gorse Short Term . MPS Long Term . MPS Aviation . Gorse/MPS Marine . Gorse/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 23 mi46 min SSE 9.9G11 70°F 64°F1012.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi34 min S 18G21 66°F1011.5 hPa
44091 29 mi38 min 67°F3 ft
BGNN6 36 mi46 min 75°F 69°F1011.5 hPa
MHRN6 36 mi46 min S 9.9G13
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi46 min SSE 12G12 69°F 1011.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi46 min SSW 6G8.9
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi46 min 72°F 67°F1011.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi88 min SSW 9.9G13 76°F 63°F1011.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi34 min 18G21 66°F1012.2 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi34 min SE 8.9 73°F 1014 hPa61°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi46 min SSW 16G17 68°F 1012.8 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi68 minSSE 710.00 miFair71°F60°F68%1012.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi64 minSSW 1010.00 miFair75°F48°F39%1011.7 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi2.1 hrsSW 910.00 mi76°F49°F39%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:07 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:18 AM EDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:40 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:37 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Mantoloking, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Mantoloking
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:06 AM EDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:28 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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