Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:57PM Sunday January 16, 2022 8:32 PM EST (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 703 Pm Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.gale warning in effect through late Monday night...
Tonight..E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt late this evening and early morning, then becoming se 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 10 to 15 ft after midnight. Rain. Seas 6 to 9 ft dominant period 9 seconds, building to 10 to 15 ft dominant period 10 seconds after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft, subsiding to 9 to 12 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning. A chance of rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then rain or snow showers likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain or snow showers in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow after midnight.
ANZ400 703 Pm Est Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A powerful winter storm will track northward and remain inland from the mid-atlantic coast through tonight, then move into new england and eastern canada during Monday. High pressure then builds into the region Tuesday into Wednesday followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then arrives Friday followed by low pressure that may track nearby next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, NJ
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location: 40.21, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 162358 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 658 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. A powerful winter storm will track northward and remain inland from the Mid-Atlantic coast through tonight, then move into New England and eastern Canada during Monday. High pressure then builds into the region Tuesday into Wednesday followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then arrives Friday followed by low pressure that may track nearby next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. 645 pm update: Looks like the expansion southeastward of the winter weather advisory is working out, with numerous reports of vehicle accidents in the Philadelphia area, snow-covered roads in Wilmington and adjacent portions of southwest New Jersey, and continued snow or a wintry mix along the I-295 corridor. The rain/snow line is advancing northwestward, but travel will likely remain quite hazardous through late evening before temperatures warm sufficiently above freezing. No changes to the winter weather products are required at this time.

Main attention-getter right now is the growing consensus among CAMs for a convective line to move through southern Delaware and eastern New Jersey late this evening into the early overnight hours. Model guidance is indicating potential for 40-55 kt gusts with this convective line. Main question will be how far inland the line will develop (with the strongest portion of the band likely remaining offshore). Should this line develop into our land zones, severe-caliber wind gusts are possible, if not probable, given the very strong winds just off the surface.

Another concern is overall QPF, with rain amounts of 1-2+ inches expected in most of the area (where precipitation will predominantly be rain). Consensus indicates the highest QPF will be in northern/central NJ, where flash flood guidance is relatively low. Some low-grade hydro issues may develop with these rainfall totals, so we will need to monitor for this potential as well Previous discussion follows.

Potential hazards over the next 24 hours include strong winds, wintry precipitation, and coastal flooding. For more information on the details:

Precipitation type: Aside from southern Delaware and SE NJ, cold air remains in place to support snow for much of the region. With the easterly/southeasterly flow in the low to mid levels, an elevated warm layer is expected to quickly develop by early this evening. As a result we will see a change over from southeast to northwest to wintry mix, and (for most location) eventually all rain. The only locations that may not see a change over to all rain are the southern Poconos where cold air damming could keep a very shallow below freezing layer at the surface. Continue to go slightly below guidance for temperatures north and west of the fall through this period to account for the potential of cold air damming. Consequently, the forecast shows a slower transition in precipitation type than what most of the guidance is depicting north and west of the fall line. On Monday afternoon, another round of (very light) precipitation is possible in the wrap around as the low lifts away, but by this time, the elevated warm layer should have eroded enough that it will be either snow or rain (no wintry mix expected).

Snow and Ice Amounts: The main change was to expand the mention of light ice amounts to include portions of SW NJ (where the winter weather advisory was expanded), and slightly increase snow amounts for the Lehigh Valley northwestward due to a slightly earlier onset of snow, and slightly higher QPF during the evening hours. Although the snow and ice amounts currently forecast in Carbon and Monroe counties don't meet winter storm warning criteria or ice storm warning criteria, we are concerned that the combination of ice on top of snow (and windy conditions too) will cause significant impacts for these areas. Looking at the Monday afternoon period, any snow during this period should be light and should not add significantly to the snow totals.

Wind hazards: Strongest winds are expected to come with the easterly winds Sunday night into Monday morning. Expecting sustained winds around 20-30 mph with gusts in the 40-50 mph range. The highest wind speeds are likely to be along the coast. There remains some potential for gusts near 60 mph along the central and northern NJ coast, but given the likely very inefficient mixing due to the robust inversion, think it is more likely to stay in the wind advisory range. Interestingly, deterministic models show very strong wind gusts, but suspect models are depicting much more efficient mixing than what can occur with a strong inversion. Wind advisory level winds are also possible on ridge lines in the southern Poconos, but will cover this potential within the winter storm warning. Attention then turns to Monday afternoon, when winds could increase once again, across the region. Currently have close to wind advisory for southeastern PA, northern Delmarva and SW NJ on Monday afternoon, but will hold off on issuing a wind advisory for now, as forecast is just below advisory criteria, and want to keep a simpler message through the impacts tonight.

Timing: As mentioned, precipitation is already moving into the region. The period for the heaviest precipitation looks to be from mid evening through late tonight. The main change of note with this forecast is that it appears the dry slot may be moving in slightly faster than previously expected, so have decreased PoPs from South to north quicker in the pre dawn/Monday morning hours. There should be a lull in the precipitation late Monday morning for the vast majority of the region, then there will be another chance for light snow or rain Monday afternoon.

Temperatures: As the system lifts north, warm air advection will result in temperatures rising for much of the region tonight into early Monday morning, before falling again late Monday morning through Monday afternoon in the wake of the occluded cold front.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Summary . Blustery conditions will ease with some milder air arriving for Wednesday.

The axis of an upper-level trough is forecast to shift to our east during Monday evening. Strong low pressure north of New England will continue to track northeastward and weaken with time. There could be a few snow showers Monday evening in the Pocono region given favorable cold northwest flow. As the trough moves away, some ridging starts to approach from the west during Tuesday. This ridge looks weak however as the flow aloft is more zonal for a time. This results in high pressure sliding across our area later Tuesday before shifting offshore into Wednesday. Blustery conditions Monday night will ease later Tuesday as high pressure arrives, then warm air advection will allow for moderating temperatures Wednesday.

The milder temperatures Wednesday will be ahead of an upper-level trough amplifying into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and adjacent Canada. This will drive low pressure well to our northwest. Decent forcing for ascent along and ahead of the front should result in a band of showers approaching from the west late in the day Wednesday. After a cold start Wednesday, many places should warm into the 40s during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Summary . A period of bitterly cold air looks to return late in the week and into the weekend; watching for a potential storm over the weekend.

Synoptic Overview . An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify into the East during this frame. A return to a much colder pattern takes place with the passage of a strong cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. As the trough continues to amplify more into the East, low pressure may develop along the offshore baroclinic zone with at least some guidance indicating the storm is close to the Mid- Atlantic coast.

For Wednesday night and Thursday . The first in a series of shortwaves amplifying eastward with time an upper-level trough will drive low pressure well to our north. An associated strong cold front however blasts across our area into Thursday morning. The front looks progressive enough, however decent frontal forcing for ascent works across our area and therefore a band of showers looks to move through. These could be either snow or rain depending on the thermal profiles. Temperatures will probably not recover much during the day Thursday as cold air advection ramps up, with more substantial cold arriving for Thursday night when temperatures tumble into the teens to even single digits.

For Friday through Sunday . As the aformentioned upper-level trough continues to amplify its way into the East, our sensible weather will first be dominated by arctic high pressure centered across southeastern Canada and New England. A rather cold air mass is forecast to be in place, however incoming upper-level energy looks to initiate a wave along an offshore baroclinic zone. There is typically more uncertainty especially the details and timing this far out, however the overall pattern looks to favor some sort of cyclogenesis near or offshore of the East Coast over the weekend. We continue to maintain some chance PoPs for now in the Friday through Saturday time frame, however some guidance is slower with the storm development and delays it until Sunday. A clipper system however could then approach from the northwest Sunday which is tied to the main axis of the upper-level trough. Overall, this time frame looks to be cold.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This evening . MVFR/IFR conditions with snow expected for RDG/ABE and a wintry mix transitioning to rain at the Philly terminals. Mostly rain is expected at ACY/MIV. East-northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Very strong easterly LLWS of 45-60 kt. High confidence.

Overnight . Snow transitioning to rain at ABE/RDG with rain expected elsewhere. Variable restrictions likely, with MVFR/IFR predominant (but occasional VFR possible). Very strong wind gusts are possible at MIV/ACY between 04z and 08z, especially if heavier showers develop. Precipitation will likely diminish from south to north after 09z. East to southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. East-southeast LLWS up to 60 kt through 08z or so. Moderate confidence; however, several TAF amendments likely owing to the highly variable conditions expected.

Monday . VFR/MVFR conditions expected in the morning, with mostly VFR in the afternoon. However, there is a chance for rain/snow showers through the day, especially northwest of PHL. Brief restrictions are likely in vicinity of these showers. South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest or west 15 to 25 kt with gusts 30+ kt during the afternoon. Low confidence, particularly regarding the coverage of showers and potential impacts to the terminals.

Outlook .

Monday night . VFR. Northwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots, diminishing late. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . VFR. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing some late in the day then becoming light and variable at night. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . VFR during the day, then a period of sub-VFR conditions probable with showers. Southerly winds increasing to 10-15 knots during the day, then becoming westerly and diminishing at night. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . Sub-VFR conditions possible especially in the morning. Northwest winds around 10 knots. Low confidence.

Friday . VFR overall. Northerly winds around 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. 645 pm update: There are increasing indications that a strong convective band will move through the waters late this evening into the overnight hours. Should this materialize, storm-force wind gusts will be probable (albeit briefly). There are also indications another surge of stronger winds may occur late tonight, with gusts approaching storm force. Will monitor upstream observations and radar trends closely, and if these seem to be matching model depictions, a short-fused upgrade to a storm warning for the overnight hours may be required. Previous discussion follows .

Easterly winds will begin to build to gale force over the next several hours. Expect easterly winds sustained around 30-40 kts with higher gusts possible. A few storm force gusts up to 50 kts cannot be ruled out, but confidence is not high enough to issue a Storm Warning, thus the Gale Warning will remain in effect through tonight. Seas building to 9-14 feet across the ocean waters and very rough waters on Delaware Bay. The winds will become southerly in the pre-dawn hours and diminish somewhat.

The lull in the winds will be short lived though as southwesterly winds of 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt will be possible by mid day Monday.

Outlook .

Monday night . Gale Warning for all waters due to wind gusts up to 40 knots, with the winds diminishing some overnight. Seas 8-12 feet (3-6 feet on Delaware Bay), subsiding overnight.

Tuesday . Small Craft Advisory conditions expected due to a gusty northwesterly wind, then improving at night.

Wednesday . Small Craft Advisory conditions develop during the day with increasing southwest winds, then conditions should improve at night.

Thursday and Friday . Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A full moon occurs on Monday. While the astronomical tides associated with this full moon are not particularly high, it will contribute to the potential for coastal flooding on Monday morning as a storm system moves through the region.

Uncertainty remains high regarding the total water level forecast. Onshore flow has developed, and will strengthen into tonight. By tonight, easterly wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected along the coast. These winds will likely cause an unusually large but short- lived surge of water to impact the coastline, on the order of 3 to 4 feet. If the arrival of this surge were to correspond to the time of high tide, at least moderate coastal flooding would occur. Current indications are that this surge will hit closer to the time of low tide tonight in most areas. The surge will arrive a little later in northern portions of the area. For that reason, the areas of greatest concern are northern New Jersey coastal areas such as the Monmouth County coast and Raritan Bay. With this afternoon's update, we have upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning for those two counties. While confidence is lower than normal for issuing a warning, the unusually large "boom/bust" potential appears to warrant a warning, since only small errors in storm surge timing could lead to significant changes in water levels at the coast. We have also expanded the Coastal Flood Advisory to include the remainder of the New Jersey Atlantic coast. Users are encouraged to closely monitor the forecast for the Monday morning high tide.

In addition to the Atlantic coast, there is some potential for minor flooding on Chesapeake Bay. While most model guidance is not indicating much in the way of flooding there, the overall pattern of this storm system is one which has caused coastal flooding on the Chesapeake in the past. We are now forecasting some spotty minor flooding on the Chesapeake on Monday, and the tidal forecast there will continue to be closely monitored.

Water levels should quickly diminish by later Monday, with no further coastal flooding expected. There is also potential that strong northwest winds behind the storm could lead to concerns for blowout tides by Monday night. This will also be monitored in the event that low water products are needed.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for PAZ060>062- 101-103-105. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ070-071-102-104-106. Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for PAZ054-055. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NJZ007>010. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for NJZ012>014-020-026-027. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EST Monday for NJZ020-022>027. Wind Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for NJZ022>025. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ015>019. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM to noon EST Monday for NJZ012>014. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NJZ001. DE . Wind Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for DEZ002>004. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for DEZ001. MD . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ012. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . Gorse/Johnson Near Term . CMS/Johnson Short Term . Gorse Long Term . Gorse Aviation . CMS/Gorse Marine . CMS/Gorse/Johnson Tides/Coastal Flooding . O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 18 mi44 min E 21G29 41°F 37°F1015.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi32 min E 23G31 1013.6 hPa
BGNN6 31 mi44 min 31°F 43°F1015.4 hPa
MHRN6 31 mi44 min ENE 14G19
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 31 mi44 min ENE 15G18 31°F 1015.5 hPa
44091 33 mi36 min 47°F9 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi44 min 31°F 41°F1016 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi44 min NE 8G11 31°F 33°F1013.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi32 min 27G35 47°F1013.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi44 min E 6G9.9 30°F 1017.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi56 min ENE 8.9G13 29°F 32°F1012.8 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ8 mi36 minE 13 G 238.00 miLight Rain41°F41°F100%1013.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi92 minE 10 miRain38°F35°F89%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNW6NW6NW6NW5NW6NW4NW4NW6W4NW3W5N6N5N5N9NE9N7N8N8E10
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2 days agoN5N5N6N5N5N6N9N11N9N12
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:03 AM EST     4.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:28 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:33 PM EST     3.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:12 AM EST     4.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:37 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:42 PM EST     3.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey, Tide feet
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