Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 4:42 PM   Moonset 3:02 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 735 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Today - SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Tonight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 735 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build over the waters through Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area Friday before retreating back toward the waters this weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 201110 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 710 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft over Pennsylvania will bring dry conditions, light wind and warmer temperatures through Wednesday. A storm system moving north of the Great Lakes will push its southward trailing cold front through the region on Thursday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A light east to southeasterly low level flow was advecting an area of low stratus across the Lower Susq Valley and Western Poconos early this morning, while mainly clear skies elsewhere allowed the temp and dewpoints to dip into the mid 50s with the spread narrowing to a deg F or less. This has led to locally dense fog to form throughout the valleys of Scent PA, the Laurels and NW Mtns where the heaviest rain occurred over the past several days. Issued an earlier Special Weather Statement to cover the fog over our SW zones where the fog is currently most widespread. *Update - Issued a Dense Fog Advisory through 13z today in collaboration with LWX for expanded coverage of dense fog in the valleys of Central and Western PA.

A bit different from Sunday AM, any low clouds and fog should burn away by 15Z and should help temps this afternoon rise a few to several degrees warmer than Sunday's maxes.

As noted by previous shifts and highlighted on multiple model guidance that show and axis of CAPE likely exceeding 1000 J/KG, there could be just enough instability across the nrn tier of and Western Mtns in the aftn to pop a few stray showers and and TSRA. Left PoPs in the 20-30pct range during the 20Z Monday to 00Z Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Tonight will be similar to the last few nights, with perhaps less of a recurrence of the nighttime stratus. Valley fog is probable again tonight and will maintain the mention of patchy fog. Min temps early Tuesday in the upper 50s to around 60 will likely be a bit milder than Mon AM as well .

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Tuesday and Wednesday will be very warm days with south to southwesterly flow and plentiful sunshine. Expect highs to reach the 80s both days, and some valley spots could even touch 90 degrees on Wed aftn.

Surface low pressure is progged to track north of the Great Lakes and well north of PA during the mid to late week period.
The associated cold front will cross Pennsylvania Wed night or early Thurs, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.

After the front moves through, uncertainty remains as to how far to our south it will settle before stalling. This could keep a chc of showers across at least southern PA through the end of the week.

There is considerable uncertainty heading into next weekend, but it appears that there is a chc that our weather could remain unsettled.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Patchy dense valley fog and low stratus impacting AOO/IPT/MDT/LNS with VLIFR-IFR restrictions will dissipate through mid morning.
The fog in the valleys will erode first, followed by the low clouds blanketing the southeastern airfields. Widespread VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day with light winds. Model guidance shows the potential for a stray thunderstorm across the northern tier later this afternoon, but confidence+coverage remains too low to include in the BFD TAF.
VFR prevails this evening into tonight with patchy fog and low cloud impacts possible again during the predawn and early morning hours Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ005-006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049-050-056.

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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 03:43 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Mon -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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