Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM   Moonset 2:43 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 134 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
This afternoon - NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tonight - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Mon - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Tue night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 134 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will gradually progress offshore today before high pressure builds over the waters on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system settles south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 191735 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 135 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure is building into the region. Generally rain-free conditions, light wind and warmer temperatures are expected to hold through the middle of the upcoming week. A storm system should arrive later Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
We're just a month from the solstice, and the sun is still having trouble breaking up the morning stratus in places where it was thickest. However, many areas have broken out and have seen some sunshine before the sun self-destructed and mixed the moisture up into higher-based cu. Overall, max temps still seem on track. There could still be an isold SHRA this aftn in the SE/Poconos or Laurels, popping off the high ground. But, chances/coverage are slim (20pct).

Prev...
LLVL moisture taking the circuitous route from the Western Atlantic, onshore over the Delmarva Region then north along and to the east of the Allegheny Front has led to widespread stratus/stratocu across the CWA overnight and early this Sunday.

The cloud cover helped to maintain a 2-3F T/Td spread at most ob sites and greatly limited any fog formation. Mentioned patchy light fog in the valleys while painting areas of fog across the highest ridge tops where the much lower stratus CIGS will likely intersect the highest terrain across the north and west.

Light northerly flow of drier air just a few KFT AGL will be sufficient to mix down and poke significant holes in the shallow low cloud deck as we head through the late morning hours, and by 18Z there should be 50 percent (or less) sky cover across practically the entire area.

Morning low temps will once again sport a 5-6 deg F range in the mid 50s to low 60s with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. HRRR MU CAPE increases to between 750-1000 J/KG near and just to the west of the Allegheny Front late this afternoon which could support a few highly isolated showers with a brief TSRA possible in the 20Z-01Z period. Will still leave the forecast rainfree for now with the POP AOB 10 percent.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
We are likely to see some areas of fog tonight with the sky clearing out better, but dewpoints not dipping below the m50s.

A decent and mostly rain-free stretch of weather is expected Monday through Wednesday morning, with high pressure dominating the sensible weather conditions and bringing the driest weather we've seen in a few weeks. We are timing the next weather system into central PA by Wednesday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may approach western areas by late Wednesday afternoon, but it looks like most areas stay dry until after 00z Thurs.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Confidence is increasing in the timing of the frontal passage to be Wednesday afternoon and evening. The surface low is currently progged to be positioned north of the great lakes and track well north of PA into central Ontario and eventually into Quebec. The resulting cold front will track across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region. This will bring showers and thunderstorms across PA late Wednesday into early Thursday, however uncertainty remains as to the extent of these storms.
Southerly flow ahead of the front will bring warm air advection and instability, but medium range guidance suggests these storms could breakup as the front crosses into central PA.
Therefore PoPs have been capped at 60% for now.

After the front moves through, considerable uncertainty still exists in terms of how much and how frequent rain will be. A chance of showers remains in place through the end of the week despite zonal flow aloft providing little in the way of synoptic forcing. The next chance for a widespread soaking rain will come during the weekend with a center of low pressure developing across the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon, and even the latest guidance is suggesting these weekend showers could be scattered to isolated given a lack of significant forcing and some ridging building in Friday to Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions prevail across the airspace for the early afternoon; however a few sites are still stubbornly holding onto MVFR low clouds. All sites should improve to VFR later this afternoon. Can't rule out a spotty shower this afternoon, however very sparse coverage, low confidence (<20% POP) and minimal operational impact will preclude mention from TAF. Focus for tonight will shift back to fog (west/central) and low stratus restrictions (east) into early Monday morning. Areas that have mostly cleared will dry out making confidence in widespread fog low, but a mention of IFR fog conditions have been made in the TAFs for the eastern sites.

Outlook...

Mon...Patchy AM fog possible, then VFR.

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Sun -- 03:13 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:48 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:44 PM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:44 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:46 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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