Wednesday, September22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Deal, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:54PM Wednesday September 22, 2021 11:39 PM EDT (03:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:59PMMoonset 8:10AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1003 Pm Edt Wed Sep 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers until late afternoon. Showers likely late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of tstms early in the evening. Showers. A chance of tstms in the late evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers early in the morning, then a chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1003 Pm Edt Wed Sep 22 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure was centered in ohio this afternoon with a cold front extending southward to the gulf of mexico. The low is forecast to lift northward and it should slowly pull the boundary through our region from west to east on Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure is expected to nose into our area from the southwest for Friday and Saturday. A cold front approaching from the northwest is anticipated to arrive on Saturday night. High pressure will likely follow for the period from Sunday into Tuesday. We may see another cold frontal passage around Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal , NJ
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location: 40.25, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 222313 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 713 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure was centered in Ohio this afternoon with a cold front extending southward to the Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to lift northward and it should slowly pull the boundary through our region from west to east on Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure is expected to nose into our area from the southwest for Friday and Saturday. A cold front approaching from the northwest is anticipated to arrive on Saturday night. High pressure will likely follow for the period from Sunday into Tuesday. We may see another cold frontal passage around Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. A deepening area of low pressure is currently positioned over the Ohio Valley while High Pressure remains entrenched over the Canadian Maritimes. This configuration is maintaining a breezy SE flow over the area with seasonably warm temperatures (i.e. upper 70s and low 80s) and fairly high humidity. At the mid-lvls a closed low is located just upstream of the sfc.low over the Upper Midwest while a rex block is over the Western Atlantic. Some low-amplitude shortwaves are also moving northward towards the western Mid- Atlantic in the meridional flow ahead of the closed low. These shortwaves combined with orographic uplift and perhaps some weak isentropic ascent has result in a stream of (mostly) showers over portions of Central MD/PA. Some of these will likely clip far western portions of our area this afternoon, but given the highly meridional nature of the mid-lvl flow most of the area should remain east of the wave tracks/showers.

Most of the shower activity will continue to remain west of the area through the overnight and early Thursday morning period as the cold front moves through western/central PA. Not as confident about the stratus potential tonight relative to the last couple of nights however think stratus is still likely over the northwest as the moist upslope flow regime should support cloud formation. Further S&E where the flow regime is less conducive, cloud cover overnight may be largely limited to high clouds. Overnight lows will remain well above seasonal normals given the warm/moist airmass, breezy SE flow, and cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. A mid level low is forecast to lift northward across lower Michigan and Lake Huron on Thursday and Thursday night, before moving toward James Bay on Friday. The surface reflection of the low is expected to pull a cold front slowly through our region from west to east from late Thursday morning into late Thursday night.

A 40+ knot low level southerly jet in advance of the cold front is anticipated to help draw gulf moisture into our region on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to 2+ inches. A couple of short waves rotating around the mid level low will likely help to enhance rainfall rates. We continue to expect widespread 1.5 to 3 inch rainfall amounts from around the Interstate 95 Corridor northwestward. Rainfall totals should favor the 0.75 to 1.5 inch range on the coastal plain.

The Flash Flood Watch has been left in place. We have sped up the beginning and ending times by 3 hours based on the latest guidance. Also, we have added New Castle County in Delaware to account for the potential of some flooding in the urban corridor across the northern part of the county.

We remain under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. We will keep the mention of gusty winds. Any thunderstorms that develop could mix down some of the stronger winds from aloft.

A final mid level short wave on Friday morning should kick the last of the precipitation to our east. Rapid drying is anticipated in its wake, with a good deal of sunshine likely on Friday afternoon.

Highs are forecast to be mainly in the 70s to near 80 degrees on Thursday, and in the upper 60s and lower 70s on Friday with decreasing humidity.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The period from Friday night through Wednesday will feature mid level troughing over the east as a ridge builds over the middle part of the country. Our weather should be mainly dry with little potential for much moisture to advect into our region.

A mid level short wave is expected to pull a cold front through our region on Saturday night. A repeat is forecast around Tuesday night.

Temperatures are expected to be typical for early autumn with highs mostly in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Variable CIGs are expected, with occasional MVFR for the Philly terminals westward and primarily VFR conditions for ACY/MIV. Showers may gradually move into RDG/ABE/ILG overnight, but confidence is low on timing. More persistent MVFR may occur after 08z, but confidence is rather low. South to southeast winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt (moderate confidence with winds).

Thursday . MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to prevail gradually from west to east with showers and embedded storms, with the threat of lightning highest after 15z. Storms may produce gusty/erratic winds and torrential rainfall. South to southeast winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20+ kt, though winds may begin to decrease by late afternoon. Cannot rule out low-level wind shear during the day. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night . Sub-VFR conditions will likely continue through at least the evening hours, though gradual improvement is expected west-to-east overnight, as showers/storms slowly move east of the terminals. Winds will become more southwest or west with time, generally near or below 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . Mainly VFR. West to northwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Saturday . Mainly VFR. Northwest to west wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. Northwest to west wind 10 to 15 knots. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. West to southwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Seas currently in the 4-5ft range will increase to the 6-7ft by early Thursday morning. Meanwhile SE winds will continue to gust over 25kts over the waters, with isolated gale force gusts even possible over portions of Delaware Bay (although am not confident enough in their coverage and duration to upgrade to a Gale Warning at this time). Consequently the SCA remains in effect through the overnight period for all waters.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Thursday for southeast winds around 20 knots gusting to 25 to 30 knots. The funneling effect up Delaware Bay may produce local gale force gusts there. Waves on our ocean waters should build to 6 to 7 feet, with waves on Delaware Bay building to 3 to 5 feet.

Outlook .

Thursday night and Friday . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our ocean waters for lingering wave heights of 5 to 6 feet, even as wind speeds diminish.

Saturday through Monday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip currents .

The risk for rip currents is expected to increase through Thursday, as winds become a little stronger with attendant increasing swell. We have forecast a HIGH risk through Thursday with a Rip Current Statement in effect.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Strong southerly flow in advance of the system moving through the region Thursday will lead to elevated water levels on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay through at least Thursday morning. Recent observations suggest that minor flooding is probable for the high tide later this evening and again tomorrow morning, especially given that steady south winds are expected to continue . if not strengthen . through this period of time. We have issued a coastal flood advisory for the eastern shore of Maryland through late morning Thursday as a result.

Water levels on the tidal Delaware River will also be elevated. At this time, confidence is too low for issuance of an advisory, but we will be monitoring closely for the next several hours. Rainfall on Thursday may exacerbate the situation for the Thursday afternoon high tide, but confidence is not particularly high, since the heaviest rainfall may occur after the high tide.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for NJZ001-007>010-012-015. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE . High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for DEZ004. Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for DEZ001. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ015-019- 020. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for MDZ012. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . Carr Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . Carr/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding . CMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 14 mi40 min SE 14 G 18 73°F1015.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi70 min SE 12 G 15 74°F 74°F1016.2 hPa
BGNN6 29 mi70 min 74°F 76°F1015.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi70 min SSE 17 G 20 75°F 1015.7 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi70 min SE 8 G 13
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi70 min 75°F 73°F1016.3 hPa
44091 34 mi44 min 73°F6 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi40 min 14 G 16 71°F1015.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi70 min S 8 G 16 74°F 1017.2 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 45 mi55 min SSE 12 G 12 76°F 70°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi70 min SE 8 G 8.9 74°F 71°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi44 minSE 8 G 1510.00 miFair74°F70°F88%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4E7E8E7SE6E10E7E8E10E9E5E5E4E5E5

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Wed -- 02:48 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:02 AM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:18 PM EDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.110.1-0.20.41.52.83.94.85.14.83.92.71.60.60.10.31.22.43.64.54.94.84

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:39 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:53 AM EDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:03 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:09 PM EDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.80-0.10.51.734.14.95.24.73.72.61.50.50.10.41.42.63.84.654.83.9

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