Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 2:42 PM   Moonset 2:24 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 734 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers, mainly this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.Sun night - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Mon - E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Tue night - S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 734 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will gradually progress offshore through Sunday. High pressure will build over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, before a strong cold front approaches during the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 190031 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 831 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper trough overhead will slide east through the evening with showers decreasing by late tonight. High pressure will start to build into the region on Sunday accompanied by generally rain- free conditions that are expected to persist through the middle of next week. A storm system should arrive Wed, and perhaps generate severe weather and heavy rain.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Scattered open cellular showers continue to roam areas from the Finglerlakes to the WC Mountains early this evening as upper low tracks off the coast and drier air slowly works in aloft behind it. Beyond some brief slow moving downpours, these present little concern given weak shear and marginal bouyancy. Lighter showers over my far southeastern counties are slowly dissipating and moving east as well, so it's fair to say that slow improvement is in progress across the area.

Showers will taper by late evening, and as the sky begins to clear under the influence of NVA/rising heights, fog will form esp where it rained this aftn and eve and some could become locally dense in the predawn hours. Lows will range from the mid 50s to around 60.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure rolls in for Sunday. Clouds/fog in the AM clear out nicely. However, just enough instability develops and enough moisture lingers to pop a couple of SHRA. Literally just a few with the highest probability (30pct) over the SErn hill tops.
Maxes in the 70s will be pretty normal. We are likely to see some areas of fog again Sunday night with the sky clearing out better, but dewpoints not dipping out of the m50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
No real changes or updates from the previous long term discussion. Monday and Tuesday will be dominated by high pressure ridging and dry conditions before the next system makes its way into the region by Wednesday for the return of the unsettled pattern.

Previous discussion...
A dry start to the extended period will be likely with high pressure ridging building over the mid- atlantic region and a deep surface low parked over the central plains. High pressure and dry air will stay in place through Tuesday before the upper level trough pushes them both out by Wednesday afternoon. 850mb temps of near 16C along with surface warm air advection suggest high temperatures could reach the mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

By the middle of next week, upper troughing will move across Pennsylvania and support a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, there remains plenty of model uncertainty about the timing of a cold front. The mean timing is Wednesday afternoon, but individual models bring precipitation as early as Tuesday evening and as a late as Thursday morning.
If the front moves through Wednesday afternoon or evening, it could produce the first threat for severe weather in some time given the aforementioned WAA bringing greater instability.

After the front moves through, considerable uncertainty exists in terms of how much and how frequent rain will be. A chance of showers remains in place through the end of the week despite zonal flow aloft providing little in the way of synoptic forcing. The next chance for a widespread soaking rain will come during the weekend with a center of low pressure developing across the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Scattered SHRA with isolated TSRA across NW PA will continue for the next couple of hours brining potential drops towards IFR visibility thresholds at BFD. The best chance of TSRA for BFD remains now through 02Z Sunday before chances decline. Outside of NW PA, VFR conds across W PA with MVFR across E PA are slated to continue for through 03Z Sunday.

The main concern overnight will be fog formation at all airfields across central PA. The bulk of recent guidance outlines IFR conds in the 04-07Z timeframe, with most likely timing between 05-06Z where the potential for calm/light winds becomes slightly higher. This is echoed in recent RAP model soundings, thus have these restrictions in with moderate (50-60%) confidence. There is some uncertainty in regards to which airfields go down to 1/4SM vsbys and VV cigs after during the early morning hours Sunday morning. Highest confidence (40-50%) remains at AOO/UNV/IPT, with some potential for these conds at JST/BFD. Further to the SE, cannot rule out some lower-level clouds (below 300ft AGL) to bring LIFR conds to LNS with moderate (40-50%) confidence while retaining IFR conds at MDT based on a combination of RAP/GLAMP guidance.

After sunrise, some lingering low cigs/vsbys remain possible through 14Z Sunday before rapid improvement (in a 1-2 hour period) towards VFR is expected by the late morning. Once conds prevail to VFR, expect these conditions to continue through 00Z Monday.

Outlook...

Mon...Patchy AM fog possible. Otherwise, becoming VFR.

Tue...Predominantly VFR, w/ no sig wx expected.

Wed...Sct to widespread SHRA/TSRA return.

Thu...Chc of TSRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Sat -- 02:40 AM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Sat -- 01:01 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:42 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:20 PM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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