Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monmouth Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:05PM Saturday October 23, 2021 5:18 PM EDT (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:49PMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 403 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered showers early this evening, then isolated showers late this evening. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 403 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Surface high pressure over the southeast states will slide offshore tonight through Sunday. A warm front ahead of developing low pressure lifts through the region Sunday night. Low pressure passes through the region Monday night through Tuesday, then meanders offshore through Wednesday. Another system could impact the region late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monmouth Beach , NJ
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location: 40.33, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 231916 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure over the Southeast states will slide offshore tonight through Sunday. A warm front ahead of developing low pressure lifts through the region Sunday night. Low pressure passes through the region Monday night through Tuesday, then meanders offshore through Wednesday. Another system could impact the region late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. A closed low centered near James Bay Canada will meander some through Sunday. A strong shortwave crossing our area this afternoon will then lift to our northeast this evening. This shortwave has amplified the southeastern portion of the larger upper-level trough, with even some hints of it taking on a negative tilt as it lifts to our northeast. While there is not a lot of moisture to work with ahead of this shortwave, large scale forcing for ascent is sufficient and therefore some showers are accompanying it. The coverage of showers has trended down some during the course of the day as the system enters our area, however enough showers are expected and therefore highest PoPs continued from about the I-78 corridor northward with these then decreasing with a southward extent.

The visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows the overall cloud pattern as turned more convective looking. Some subsidence in the wake of a weak shortwave this morning has resulted in some decent breaks in the clouds. This is helping to build more convective clouds and an 18z mesoanalysis indicated 100-200 J/Kg of surface-based CAPE is present from about the Philadelphia metro southward. This will lead to a few stronger but brief showers especially across portions of the central to southern zones into this evening. Radar trends this afternoon indicate this is indeed occurring, with some of the convection allowing models (CAMs) also supporting this. No thunder is expected however given the low-topped nature of the convective elements.

As we go through tonight, the southern portion of the eastern Canada closed low retreats northward some allowing a more zonal flow to occur. This will also take much of the shortwave energy to our north through tonight, with weak high pressure arriving. This should result in enough subsidence and drying to lessen the cloud cover through the night, especially for about the southern half of our area. This combined with little or no wind will result in colder temperatures. Portions of northwestern New Jersey to northeastern Pennsylvania should have temperatures drop into the upper to perhaps mid 30s by daybreak Sunday. While a touch of frost cannot be ruled out in those areas, given the setup and the rather patchy nature of it no headlines are needed. There may be patchy fog, particularly in some of the valleys of eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern Jersey. Given low confidence regarding the fog, kept the mention more limited for now.

For Sunday, the aforementioned closed low is forecast to become condensed as it weakens some just north of the Great Lakes. As this occurs, a shortwave trough is forecast to sharpen as it ejects out into the central Plains. This will result in increasing downstream low-level warm air advection along and south of a strengthening warm front. This warm front will make a run at our area during the afternoon, and the combination of the low-level warm air advection incoming from the southwest and an upper-level jet to our north should result in an increasing band of mid to high level clouds. Some overrunning light rain may near our far northwestern zones later in the afternoon as a result. The surface flow will veer to the southwest or south during the day, however it looks weak and therefore mixing is limited. High temperatures will be on the cooler side, especially across the northern areas with farther south locales getting close to average.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Low pressure will intensify over northwest Missouri/southeast Iowa, and a warm front will extend out from that low and will lift north through the region. Rain will develop, mainly across the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey, in the evening, and that rain lifts north through early Monday morning.

Strong warm air advection will be underway on Monday with deep southerly flow. 850 mb temperatures will rise to +10C to +11C, and high temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 70s. A few locations could approach record highs.

Some showers will develop late as that low moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. The quiet weather that has been in place will give way to to an active week.

As low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley Monday evening, models indicating a weak secondary low forming out ahead of it in the Mid- Atlantic area, and that secondary low will lift along the coast Monday night before merging with the primary low somewhere offshore. Strong mid-level shortwave energy will pass through the region associated with a broad closed upper low.

Although there is still some time to see how things develop, there are indications for a potential severe weather event with this system Monday night.

12Z/23 NAM indicating around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE values, a 40+ kt LLJ will be over New Jersey, and 0-6 km Bulk Shear 30-40 kt. NAM and GFS are also indicating helicity values of 100-200. Deep low-level moisture in place, as surface dew points will be in the 60s, resulting in PWATs around 1.5 inches. Heavy rain is possible. Will bump thunderstorm chances up from slight chance to chance for Monday night.

Low pressure will move off the New Jersey coast Tuesday morning. Showers taper off from west to east throughout the day. However, models indicating yet another area of low pressure over the western Atlantic, several hundred miles east of the Carolina coast. These two systems look to merge over the western Atlantic as a broad upper low moves over the Northeast. With this low working its way through the region, will keep at least chance PoPs in the forecast through Wednesday as scattered showers work their way across the region.

There may be a brief period of dry weather sometime Wednesday night into Thursday as a mid-level ridge builds across the Northeast.

Thereafter, another area of low pressure will approach for the end of the work week and possibly into the start of the weekend. However, there is much uncertainty among the models, so for now, will stick with the NBM for this time frame.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon . VFR ceilings mainly between 4000-10000 feet. Some showers will be around with local and brief MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities possible especially. Light and variable winds overall. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR with ceilings thinning out and any showers ending early. Localized fog possible overnight, mainly at a few of the rural terminals. Light and variable winds, becoming locally calm. Low confidence regarding fog development.

Sunday . Localized fog possible early, otherwise VFR with a ceiling around 10000 feet developing. Light and variable winds, becoming southwest or south near 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Monday . Sub-VFR conditions possible in RA/BR Sunday night. VFR otherwise. S winds 5-10 kt Sunday night, increasing to 10-20 kt on Monday. Moderate confidence.

Monday night through Tuesday . Sub-VFR conditions with SHRA and scattered TSRA. LLWS possible Monday night. S winds 5-10 kt Monday night, becoming NW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Tuesday afternoon. Low confidence.

Wednesday . Mostly VFR. NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . VFR. NE winds 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Low confidence.

MARINE. The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sunday. Northwesterly winds will gradually become southerly during Sunday.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Monday . SW winds increase to 15 to 20 kt. Gusts around 25 kt. Seas building to 3 to 5 ft. A SCA may be needed.

Monday night . S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas building to 3 to 5 ft. A SCA may be needed. VSBY restrictions in showers and fog. Thunderstorms possible.

Tuesday . Winds becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. VSBY restrictions likely in showers and fog.

Wednesday . NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt possible. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

Thursday . NE winds 15-20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Gorse Short Term . MPS Long Term . MPS Aviation . Gorse/MPS Marine . Gorse/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi49 min W 6G8 59°F 62°F1014.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi39 min NW 5.8G9.7 66°F1013.3 hPa
BGNN6 23 mi49 min 60°F 68°F1013.8 hPa
MHRN6 23 mi49 min WNW 6G9.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi49 min WNW 6G9.9 60°F 1013.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 26 mi49 min 60°F 65°F1014.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi49 min NW 8G11 59°F 1014.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi64 min WSW 5.8G16 59°F 45°F
44091 41 mi53 min 66°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi49 min SW 4.1G5.1 61°F 60°F1014.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi39 min 5.8G7.8 65°F1013.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi109 min W 3.9G7.8 58°F 42°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi43 min W 6G8.9 60°F 61°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi23 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast61°F49°F65%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4W4W5W5NW3NW4W3NW4NW4NW4NW3NW5NE3N5N3NW7NW6NW3W7W4SW5W3SW4
1 day agoS6SE4S3S6S7S4S8S11SW7S8SW7SW6SW6SW6SW4W8W7W8W96SW3W7SW7W9
2 days agoSW4SW4SW3SW5W7SW5SW4SW4SW5SW6SW5SW5SW6SW5SW4SW4SW4W6SW5SW8SW6SW9SE8SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Gooseneck Point, bridge, New Jersey
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Gooseneck Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:14 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:24 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:22 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:13 AM EDT     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:37 PM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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