Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Navesink, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:44PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:40 PM EDT (16:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:16PMMoonset 2:12PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1122 Am Edt Tue Sep 28 2021
Today..W winds around 10 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with scattered tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and small hail late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms this evening. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and small hail this evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1122 Am Edt Tue Sep 28 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will approach today and pass through this evening, followed by building high pressure. A series of weak cold fronts will then move through Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure will then build in and remains through the weekend. A frontal system will approach late Sunday into the beginning of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navesink, NJ
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location: 40.41, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 281613 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1213 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move through the region later today. After that, a broad surface high will move southeastward towards New England and the mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the week into the weekend. An area of low pressure may move into the region late in the weekend or early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A shortwave trough axis and associated mid-level vorticity maxima are working through the Mid-Atlantic region at this time. A cold front is currently across the PA/NY border and will track through the forecast area from north to south as the day progresses and is anticipated to be offshore/south of the area shortly after midnight.

After this morning convection moves northeast or weakens, an additional round of convection is expected to develop along or ahead of the cold front and possibly any remnant boundaries associated with the morning convection into the early/mid afternoon hours (1-4 PM), mainly across southeast PA and central NJ. This activity is expected to move southeastward and offshore during the evening hours.

There will be a threat of severe thunderstorms with any of the more robust cells that develop. Diurnal instability will be in the 1000- 1500+ J/kg range along with deep layer effective shear around 25 kts. Mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km and DCAPE >700 J/kg could result in fairly strong updrafts and downdrafts with small hail and strong/damaging winds possible. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk for areas near and south of Philly with a Marginal Risk for most of the remainder of the forecast area. PWats around 1.3-1.5" along with a progressive storm motion should preclude any widespread notable flash flood threat, but some localized flooding may be possible.

Expect mostly cloudy skies with highs in the low-mid 70s north/west of I-95 and around 80 degrees near/south of the Philly metro. Winds will be from the west ahead of the front, then turn northerly behind the front around 5-10 mph with higher gusts during the day. Expect lows falling into the upper 40s to 50s for most tonight along with clearing skies.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure will develop and move northward over the Canadian Maritimes during this period while high pressure gradually builds in from the north and west. In the upper levels, a large closed low will wobble through SE Canada and northern New England. This pattern will result in a dry, cool northerly flow over the area. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in the 60s to low 70s under a mix of sun and some fair weather clouds. Lows Wednesday night will be mostly in the 40s to low 50s. However by Friday morning the winds will be lighter as high pressure draws closer and this may allow temperatures to drop into the upper 30s over the southern Poconos and extreme NW NJ.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. No major changes to the long range forecast with this update. A closed upper low will meander across Atlantic Canada into this weekend with upper level ridging remaining centered to our north over eastern Ontario into Quebec. Guidance still varies in how quickly this blocking pattern will break down into the weekend, but this will ultimately keep Hurricane Sam well out to sea at our latitude as it begins moving poleward. At the surface, weak and cool high pressure will remain entrenched across the region through at least Friday and likely into Saturday. This will continue to be a largely quiet and tranquil period of weather for the region, at least through Friday/Saturday and possibly right through the weekend

High temperatures will be near to a bit below normal during this period with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s. Lows will once again be quite chilly early Saturday with temperatures potentially getting to around or below 40 across the southern Poconos into NW NJ.

Cloud coverage looks like its going to beginning increasing into the weekend. Given that a consensus in guidance suggests this pattern will begin to break down at that time, we have maintained the slight chance of showers for Sunday and Monday but for Sunday this should mainly be just for the southern Poconos and NW NJ.

AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of the daytime hours (lingering into the evening for MIV/ACY). Restrictions are probable with any showers and storms that develop near or over terminals. Winds initially westerly around 5-10 kts will shift northerly by around 00Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight . Prevailing VFR. Lingering showers and storms at MIV/ACY should end in the 03-06Z time frame. Winds northerly around 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . Prevailing VFR. Some patchy fog possible in the pre-dawn hours. Winds north to northwesterly around 5-10 kts during the daytime and 5 kts or less at night. High confidence overall.

MARINE. Winds and seas will subside slightly through early this morning, then sub-advisory conditions expected. Westerly winds around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts will become northerly by around midnight. Seas 2-4 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . Sub-advisory conditions expected until maybe Saturday. Winds northerly around 10-15 kts. Seas 2-4 feet . maybe some 5 foot swells this weekend as Sam passes well to our east.

Rip Currents .

A LOW risk of dangerous rip currents is expected for Tue and Wed. Showers and a few tstms expected Tue.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Staarmann Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . Fitzsimmons/Kruzdlo Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Staarmann Marine . Fitzsimmons/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 4 mi53 min W 14 G 21 67°F 70°F1010.9 hPa
BGNN6 17 mi53 min 65°F 73°F1010.8 hPa
MHRN6 17 mi53 min WSW 4.1 G 9.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 17 mi53 min WSW 13 G 18 67°F 1011.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi41 min WNW 14 G 16 71°F1009.6 hPa (-0.4)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 20 mi53 min 68°F 72°F1011.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 31 mi53 min NW 11 G 14 69°F 1012.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 37 mi56 min W 9.7 69°F 62°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi53 min S 1 G 5.1 66°F 65°F1011.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi71 min W 12 G 16 71°F 60°F
44091 47 mi45 min 71°F4 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi41 min 12 G 16 70°F1010.2 hPa (+0.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi65 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 67°F 65°F1010.3 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ17 mi45 minNW 710.00 miLight Rain72°F62°F71%1010.7 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ22 mi50 minSW 105.00 miThunderstorm Rain69°F60°F73%1010.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi50 minWSW 146.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain69°F61°F76%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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2 days ago34W3E7E4SE3SE3CalmCalmSW4SW4W3SW5CalmSW3W5W6W7W3W8W11W13W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey
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Atlantic Highlands
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:23 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:53 AM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:29 PM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.93.83.32.51.81.41.31.52.12.93.74.24.54.54.13.32.521.61.41.51.92.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:32 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:52 PM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.70.3-0.5-1-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.6-0.20.41.21.41.20.80.1-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.4

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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