Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laurence Harbor, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:09PM Thursday October 21, 2021 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:51PMMoonset 8:04AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 342 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue night..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 342 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through the area late tonight through early Friday and then stalls off the coast. Weak high pressure builds in behind the departing front and will remain in place through the weekend. Low pressure likely impacts the region early next week with a potential return to weak high pressure mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurence Harbor, NJ
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location: 40.45, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 211916 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over the Great Lakes continues to track to the northeast, and this will drag a cold front across the region tonight through Friday. That front becomes nearly stationary over the Mid- Atlantic as high pressure establishes itself through the weekend. Low pressure then develops along that front and impacts the region possibly into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A warm afternoon in progress with a mostly sunny sky as we await a cold front.

Synoptic Overview . A large closed low centered near James Bay Canada will remain in place there through Friday. Meanwhile, a separate closed low tracking across the eastern Great Lakes will continue to weaken as it shifts northeastward and gradually merges with the James Bay closed low. At the surface, low pressure will track well to our north however its cold front approaches late tonight before shifting to our east during Friday.

As the influence of the upper-level troughs mentioned above gradually approaches our region tonight, a southwesterly low- level jet on the order of 40 knots is forecast to slide across our area. This occurs mainly overnight. Some increase in moisture is expected with this and therefore clouds, especially mid to high level, will increase through the night. Much of the lift associated with the weakening lead trough in the eastern Great Lakes goes to our north, however the present of a low- level jet and a boost in the warm air advection may result in a few brief showers across portions of the region. We therefore maintained some mainly slight chance PoPs, which is mostly north and west of the Fall Line tonight then perhaps our far south and southeast zones Friday morning. Due to the increasing cloud cover and continued warm air advection tonight, low temperatures should be well above average (50s for most of the area, and around 60 near and southeast of the I-95 corridor).

As we go through Friday, a potent closed low remains near James Bay. A surface cold front will cross the area Friday morning, and cold air advection commences across the region. At least some guidance suggests that there will be two fronts, with the more colder air located with the second front later Friday. As a result, Friday looks to be the step down day as we go from the rather warm airmass of today (Thursday) to a colder one. The chance of showers looks very low as dry air and weak lift remains. There should be a decent amount of mid/high clouds around Friday with more of the upper-level trough settling in along with multiple shortwaves moving within the flow. A narrow corridor is possible, centered near I-95, that could get more sunshine longer. Given the passage of the cold front along with more clouds all yields in cooler temperatures.

The upper-level trough is forecast to amplify more into the East Friday night. This results in increasing cyclonic flow with the continuation of several shortwaves. This leads to a more challenging cloud cover forecast. Given the cooler airmass, cyclonic flow and shortwaves, there should be areas of at least mid level clouds moving through at times especially as the night progresses. Based on the added cloud cover, continued to go with low temperatures at least a little higher compared to a clear/calm setup.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Although surface high pressure begins to establish itself from the Ohio Valley down to the Southeast states, a deep upper trough remains over the Northeast. Shortwave energy will rotate around the base of the trough and through the region Saturday through Saturday night before departing on Sunday.

Conditions will be fairly dry at the surface, and there will not be much in the way of lift. Will carry a slight chance for PoPs, mainly across the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and far northwest New Jersey. QPF will be minimal, at best. It will probably end up being more sprinkles than anything.

What this trough will do, however, is keep the region cloudy for Saturday. Although skies partially clear out for Saturday night, there may be enough cloud cover to keep optimal radiational cooling conditions from developing. A light northwest flow will allow for cooler air to seep into the region. Lows will generally be in the upper 30s in the far northern zones and otherwise in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures will be warmer along the coasts.

Upper trough will lift into eastern Canada, and more of a zonal flow sets up across the region. Surface high pressure will slide off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A bit more sun early, at least compared to Saturday, then clouds begin to sill in from the west due to developing low pressure.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. After a quiet weekend, conditions become a bit more active going into the new week.

Low pressure will develop and organize over the Central Plains over the weekend, and a warm front will extend out from that low south of the region. As the low lifts to the north and east, that front will begin to lift north through the region starting Sunday night.

Overrunning precip will develop along the boundary, but it may take some time for the lower levels of the atmosphere to moisten up enough for precip to develop. Will generally go with light rain, at least initially, then a chance of rain to the north.

From there, there is little consistency among the models as to where this low will track. The GFS is fairly progressive, having it pass south of the local area and off the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night through Tuesday. The Canadian has a secondary low forming off the Mid-Atlantic coast ahead of the primary low Monday night through Tuesday, and then the primary low would become incorporated within the new low, possibly resulting in a period of heavy rain along the coast. ECMWF is slower than the GFS, and is showing signs of strengthening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. For now, will follow NBM and cap PoPs at chance, due to the differences among the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian.

There may be a break in the rain on Wednesday before another system approaches on Thursday.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon . VFR. South-southwest winds around 10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR overall. South-southwest winds 4-8 knots, becoming light and variable for a time this evening at some terminals. Southwesterly low-level wind shear anticipated for a short duration from late this evening into the overnight hours. A few brief showers cannot be ruled out mainly at RDG/ABE during the late evening. Moderate confidence.

Friday . VFR. West to west-northwest winds 5-10 knots during the day, then becoming mostly light and variable at night. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . VFR. Any SHRA will be light with few restrictions. NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . VFR. W winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday through Tuesday . Sub-VFR conditions possible in SHRA. Low confidence.

MARINE. South to southwest winds increase through much of tonight well ahead of a cold front. A southwesterly low-level jet of 40 knots will also move across the region tonight into early Friday morning. There is expected to be enough mixing within the shallow boundary layer to get gusts of 25-30 knots for a time tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into Friday morning for the New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coastal water zones, and just for the first half of tonight for lower Delaware Bay. The advisory continues for a little longer on the ocean zones Friday morning due to 5 foot seas subsiding as the winds shift to westerly. The conditions are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria on the upper Delaware Bay.

Outlook .

Saturday through Monday . Sub-SCA conditions expected with NW winds peaking from 15 to 20 knots each afternoon. Seas from 2 to 3 feet.

Tuesday . SCA conditions possible.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ431.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Gorse Short Term . MPS Long Term . MPS Aviation . Gorse/MPS Marine . Gorse/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 14 mi61 min SW 8G15
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi61 min SSE 8.9G12 71°F 64°F1013.1 hPa
BGNN6 15 mi61 min 77°F 69°F1012.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi61 min SSE 11G13 71°F 1012.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi61 min 74°F 67°F1012.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi29 min S 18G21 66°F1011.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi67 min WSW 7G12 74°F 60°F1012.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi61 min SSW 14G15 70°F 1013.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi34 min SSE 9.7G9.7 72°F 57°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi73 min WSW 6G8 74°F 62°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi58 minSSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F47°F33%1011.9 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi53 minSE 810.00 miFair73°F58°F59%1013.1 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi56 minSW 710.00 miFair76°F48°F37%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W10W10
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1 day agoW15W12SW9SW8SW11W12W15W14W16W16W14W16W13W13W11SW7S6SW9W11W12W10W10W12
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2 days agoNW19
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Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:01 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:09 AM EDT     6.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:36 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:29 PM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:01 AM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:24 PM EDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:20 PM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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