Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 4:10 AM   Moonset 5:55 PM

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FXUS61 KPBZ 060756 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 356 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A break from widespread showers today, with the focus for activity mainly south of Pittsburgh. Unsettled weather and warm temperatures for the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Convection may redevelop south of I-70 this afternoon/evening, north of a stalled frontal boundary.

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A cold front will drift south of the forecast area early this morning. The southward movement of the front will end as a weak ridge temporarily builds over the region. A shortwave trough will move across the southern half of the area today, just north of the stalled boundary. This wave may initiate convection as it rushes eastward. The energy will also flatten the ridge and pull deeper moisture northward. Latest model data is keeping the higher probabilities for showers/storms today south of I-70.
One of the key components on how far north the activity could develop will be a rather broad surface high that will move across the Great Lakes. This high will try to push drier air southward, keeping the showers northward movement at bay. Latest CAM models are keeping the activity south of I-70, with the stronger storms well south into the Mid-Atlantic region. NBM probs for measurable rainfall are further north, but the focus for the higher probs are also south of I-70. Probabilities of measurable rain north of I-70 are generally 10 to 20%. While to the south they rise to 40 to 50%.

Highs today will be right near seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

-Warm front will bring the next risk for showers and storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
- Ridging over the Great Lakes is expected to reduce precipitation chances briefly Wednesday.

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An ejecting trough out of the Rockies, that will eventually move over the northern Plains, and ridging over Florida, will reinforce a surge of moisture into the Ohio River Valley Tuesday under southwest flow. Severe storms have the potential to develop late Tuesday and Tuesday night under a destabilizing airmass and effective shear rapidly increasing from 20kts to 50kts. The Storm Prediction Center has noted the severe potential with issuing a Slight/Marginal Risk for portions on Day 3. Based on model soundings and hodographs, hail and damaging winds will likely be the biggest threat.

A break in the activity is possible Wednesday with weak ridging aloft.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- A new disturbance is expect to return showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
- Ensemble models suggest a very wet pattern into the weekend.
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An active weather pattern will remain in place for our region, with decent daily precipitation chances through the weekend.
Therefore, flooding concerns will need to be monitor in the long term.

The potential of a period of severe weather Wednesday night into early Thursday with a passing disturbance will need to be monitored closely. Organized convection could be initiated if sufficient moisture advances north into the Ohio River Valley. Confidence is high that the wind shear will be available, it is a matter of destabilization that could pose a problem for severe convection development.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A few lingering showers may impact BVI and perhaps PIT in the 05-07z timeframe, but these are quickly dissipating. Cig and vsby restrictions will remain largely variable for the next several hours, but more widespread lowering IFR stratus by 09z may help improve area vsbys. Confidence in this remains low.

Any lingering fog should improve after daybreak, and cigs should lift through the morning amid dry advection, with return to VFR anticipated by 18z. A crossing shortwave and rain mainly south of I-70 will renew restriction potential Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Winds remain light through the period.

Outlook
An active pattern will keep periods of precipitation and related restrictions through much of the week.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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