Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Highlands, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:15PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:15 AM EDT (08:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:52PMMoonset 2:46AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 331 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 30 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers late.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft..
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 331 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong cold front will approach the area today, passing through the waters this evening. High pressure will then gradually build in from the west through mid week, while low pressure spins across the canadian maritimes.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Highlands , NJ
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location: 40.48, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 160614 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 214 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues moving offshore tonight ahead of an approaching frontal system. The associated cold front will then pass through area late Saturday afternoon and evening. A seasonal airmass will build in for the beginning of next week. A warming trend will follow.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. A strong frontal system will approach from the Ohio Valley overnight, while high pressure continues move out into the western Atlantic.

An an amplifying longwave trough slowly approaches. Its associated frontal system approaches into Saturday morning. Warm advection ahead of the system may bring an increase in middle and high level moisture overnight, especially north and west of NYC and the coast. A light and brief shower cannot be completely ruled out across Orange County due to the warm advection and weak lift northwest of the CWA. Otherwise, it will remain dry tonight with mild temperatures mainly in the 60s.

There is some uncertainty regarding any low cloud development overnight, specifically near the coast. There is a chance, especially across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut, but think the stronger low level flow may inhibit anything more than some pockets of SCT-BKN stratus..

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Attention on Saturday turns to the approaching frontal system. The region will lie firmly within the warm sector. Southerly winds ramp up during the morning and we should see sustained winds 15 to around 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. The strongest winds will be along the coast. A relatively strong low level jet will also help maintain a warm airmass over the area. Strong mixing should help provide some sun in the morning in the early afternoon, helping temperatures warm well into the 70s. The strong onshore flow should limit how high temperatures get over Long Island and Connecticut, but some NYC and NE NJ locations could again touch or exceed 80 degrees. However, think temperatures should fall short of records (see climate section below).

The morning and early afternoon should be dry before the cold front begins reaching the region middle to late afternoon. The models continue to be in good agreement on the overall timing and evolution of the system. Have elected to follow the timing of the 12z CAMs, which brings the front into the Lower Hudson Valley and northeast New Jersey about 3pm-5pm, the Hudson River Corridor and NYC metro about 5pm-7pm, and Long Island and Connecticut about 7pm-9pm. Low level lapse rates are weak and instability is marginal, generally around 500 J/kg mainly west of NYC and points north and west. Instability is much lower further east across LI and CT. The convective line should be strongest as it enters the Lower Hudson Valley/interior NE NJ, weakening as it moves across the NYC metro and Hudson River corridor. Many of the CAMs show the line diminishing further as it enters the more stable coastal environment. SPC has maintained a marginal risk with the threat of isolated damaging wind gusts. Based on the aforementioned mesoscale environment, the strong to severe thunderstorm risk mainly lies north and west of the NYC metro. The convective line will be accompanied by a wind shift to the west and could still see gusty winds as this occurs, but they should be sub severe and isolated, generally 35 to 45 mph. The gusty winds should subside shortly after the frontal passage as the low levels start to cool and stabilize further.

The front and associated upper trough are progressive, limited the amount of rainfall. The heaviest rain should occur along the narrow convective line, which could put down a quick quarter inch in spots. Large scale lift immediately behind the front supports some lingering showers a few hours after the frontal passage. The weakening of the line as it moves over the coastal environment should also limit the rainfall amounts. Average amounts of a quarter to half inch, highest across the northwest interior are forecast.

The front moves offshore in the evening with any lingering post frontal showers ending by midnight. Conditions will improve overnight with cooler and drier air advecting into the area. Lows should range from the upper 40s to around 50 inland to the middle 50s near the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. A cooler airmass builds in for the Sun-Mon time period. H85 temps drop to around 2-3C Sun, and to around 1C on Mon. By the 00Z Tue balloon flight, H85 may be 0C. The wly component flow will be conducive to deep mixing thru the period however, so high temps are fcst to be close to normal for Sun and Mon. Mon looks to be the best shot for highs to be blw normal. With the winds keeping up at least a little at ngt, did not stray from the milder NBM numbers. If decoupling occurs Sun or Mon ngt, temps will be several degrees blw what is currently fcst. In addition to temps and wind, a few shwrs or sprinkles are possible Sun and Mon with cyclonic flow aloft and steep lapse rates. NBM pops indicate dry wx thru the period, but based on the setup, chances for sprinkles have been included in the fcst. Best window is during peak aftn heating each day with perhaps some residual stragglers in the early eve. Regardless of pcpn chances, an extensive cu field should develop both days in the aftn.

Heights increase Tue, eliminating pcpn chances and allowing for warmer temps. Wed still looks dry, although the ECMWF suggests the H5 trof over the maritimes will drift far enough swd to allow for isold shwrs Wed eve. Confidence in this scenario is very low, and the blended approach was followed resulting in a dry fcst Wed and Wed ngt.

Thu looks dry with increasing sly flow ahead of the next cold front. The fropa is timed for Fri per the GFS and ECMWF. Low chances for shwrs have been included in the fcst.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Weak high pressure will be in place through Saturday morning, then a cold front moves through Saturday afternoon into the evening.

VFR through much of the period. MVFR/IFR ceilings may work its way back into KGON at times after 07Z.

Generally S winds tonight less than 10 kt. Wind speed increases tomorrow morning to 10-20 kt with gusts upwards of 25-30 kt possible with the highest potential along coastal terminals.

Showers ahead of an approaching cold front will be possible after 20Z for western areas and TSRA possible 20-23Z (later for eastern terminals). Gusts may be higher (up to 35 kt) in any thunderstorms that move through. However, the line of thunderstorms looks like it will weaken as it moves east, though there is some uncertainty at this time with how fast the line weakens.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Timing of start of gusts tomorrow may be off by 1 or 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday night. Lingering -shra possible early, otherwise VFR. Sunday and Monday. VFR. W to NW winds G20-25kt mainly daytime/eve. Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Southerly winds increase late tonight into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. The SCA remains in effect for all waters on Saturday with southerly gusts of 25-30 kt. An isolated gust to gale force is possible, especially nearshore. Winds on the non-ocean waters should weaken Saturday evening behind the cold front passage, but 25 kt gusts are still possible on the ocean. Seas will gradually subside below 5 ft late Saturday night.

Gusty wnw flow kicks in on Sun behind the cdfnt. A sca will likely be needed thru Mon as a result, especially on the ocean. Conditions may remain close to advy lvls on Tue with low pres near the maritimes and high pres over the sern conus. Winds and seas subside on Wed as high pres builds in.

HYDROLOGY. Average rainfall late Saturday afternoon and evening is one quarter to one half inch. The WPC PQPF 90th percentile 24-hr QPF ending Sunday morning still shows worst-case potential between 1/2 to 3/4 inches of rain NW of NYC, so localized minor issues cannot be ruled out. No flash flooding is expected due to the progressive nature of the system.

Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

CLIMATE. Temperatures on Saturday will be unseasonably warm, and may approach these record highs:

Sat 10/16

EWR: 86/1956 BDR: 80/1975 NYC: 84/1956 LGA: 82/1958 JFK: 79/2008 ISP: 80/1963

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.



SYNOPSIS . JMC/DS NEAR TERM . DS/DW SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . JMC AVIATION . JP MARINE . JMC/DS HYDROLOGY . JMC/DS CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 1 mi45 min SSW 9.9G12 69°F 69°F1010.4 hPa
BGNN6 13 mi45 min 68°F 71°F1009.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 13 mi45 min S 6G7 69°F 1009.7 hPa
MHRN6 14 mi45 min SSW 7G9.9
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 15 mi45 min 69°F 69°F1010.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi35 min S 14G16 69°F1009.4 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi45 min SW 12G13 69°F 1010.7 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 32 mi60 min S 7.8G7.8 69°F 63°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 40 mi60 min S 9.7G12 69°F 62°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 46 mi45 min SSE 2.9G4.1 65°F 66°F1010.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi35 min 14G18 68°F1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY17 mi24 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F64°F91%1010.2 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ18 mi24 minSSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F61°F73%1009.5 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY21 mi24 minno data10.00 miFair69°F59°F70%1009.7 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ22 mi19 minS 410.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1010.5 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi24 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F59°F68%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr0NW3000S4SW7SW7S6S8S9S9S10S10S10S11S11S4S6S8S6S8S8S9
1 day agoW6W6NW5N5N8NW8N8NW10N10N9N10N12N10
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2 days ago000E3E3S4S6SW7SW8SW7SW7S7S5S5SW4S5S5SW6SW7W7W6W5W4W4

Tide / Current Tables for Sandy Hook, New Jersey (2) (expired 1994-12-31)
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Sandy Hook
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 AM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:35 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:47 PM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:39 AM EDT     1.50 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:25 AM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:01 PM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:53 PM EDT     -2.06 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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