Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 5:08 AM   Moonset 8:30 PM

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FXUS61 KPBZ 081359 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 959 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
After a dry day today, unsettled conditions with periodic showers and storms return Thursday and persist through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Brief ridging will allow for dry weather with sunshine today.

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Cloud coverage will diminish relatively quick today under increasing subsidence as weak ridging transitions across the region. Warm air aloft will keep a lid on any convection, and winds will gust up to 20mph at times during the afternoon during max mixing. Winds will lessen early this evening with decoupling.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers/storms return early Thursday through Friday.

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A sfc low approaching from the west will track along a boundary in the vicinity of the Mason- Dixon line on Thursday, followed by a shortwave on Friday. Another Marginal risk for flooding seems to be the case. This will depend on where the main axis of moisture sets up. Hi res models suggest this may be a bit further south than the Tuesday night activity and may be less impactful. NBM probs in DESI do surpass 40% for 1 inch for the area south of the Mason Dixon. Thus, any flooding issues will be dependent on training in WV or any heavier rainfall over the OH and PA areas that received heavy rainfall already. Strong height falls on Friday usher in a cooler pattern with a long wave trough position in the east.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Ensembles suggest a wet pattern into the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s this weekend.
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By Friday night into Saturday, another fast moving shortwave dives southeast in northwest flow bringing another round of showers to the area. Overall, a rather damp weekend is on tap.
The slow moving trough will keep rain chances through Sunday as well.

Temperatures through Sunday will be 5-10 degrees below the seasonal normal of about 70 this time of year.

Some moderation of temperatures is likely Monday and Tuesday as heights rise and flow turns from northwest to more westerly, though there is a possibility of another trough dropping over the northeast on Tuesday keeping things a bit cooler than currently forecast.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR expected today as cloud coverage lessens under weak ridging.

Winds will mainly be out of the west through the day with some gusts up to 20 knots at times.

Outlook
Restrictions with showers and storms are likely early Thursday through Friday with crossing low pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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