Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 3:56 PM

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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 547 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning. Chance of showers late. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds. Chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Isolated tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Mon night - SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Showers likely.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 547 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 042351 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 751 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in place along the New England coast into tonight. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday through Monday, stalling to our south. Weak high pressure moves in Tuesday into Wednesday morning before a low from the west arrives on Wednesday bringing the stalled boundary to our south through as a warm front. The low exits the east Wednesday night as a new low moves into the Great Lakes. A stalled boundary between these two systems lingers over the area Thursday with the low moving into New England and lingering through through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Overall, the forecast remains on track with this update.
Temperatures were dropped a degree or two for the rest of the evening to account for current observations.

High pressure across the Canadian Maritimes will maintain a persistent onshore flow through the weekend, and lead to cooler than typical temperatures for early May.

A weak area of low pressure will pass well to the northwest through the Upper Great Lakes, sending a slow approaching frontal boundary toward the region tonight. A few light/brief showers will be possible for areas well west of NYC this evening. Otherwise it should be dry with thickening mid level clouds into this evening as the ridge axis shifts offshore, allowing deeper moisture to advect into the area in the SW flow. Chances for showers will then increase overnight expanding eastward across the area.

With the return flow and cloud cover, temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
By Sunday, as the front continues to make progress eastward, plenty of deep moisture in the column and weak lift should instigate shower activity by the mid morning, at least for the western half of the region, before spreading east by the afternoon. Showers may continue intermittently into Sunday night before tapering west to east. QPF appears light with this activity, generally ranging from a quarter to a half inch. Skies will be overcast for much of the day tomorrow which will support cooler temperature in the mid to upper 50s across the region and upper 40s to low 50s across the region Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front on Monday will lead to any lingering showers from overnight clearing in the morning north to south, in the direction of the front, with the front expected to fully push through by later in the day on Monday. Slight chances still could linger in southern and western zones into the day, closer to the frontal boundary, which ends up stalling to our south.

Upper-level ridging sets up on Monday into Tuesday in tandem with surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, then over the northeast on Tuesday. This will lead to warmer temperatures around 5- 10 degrees above average and keep things mostly dry, though a slight chance for afternoon showers is still a possibility in western zones.

The ridge will flatten on Wednesday helping direct a developing surface low over the Great Lakes on Tuesday night into our area on Wednesday. Associated with this low will also be a mid-level shortwave bringing in some increasing mid-level energy. This low will lead to the stalled frontal boundary to our south to advance through as a warm front on Wednesday with increasing PWATs of 1.25- 1.35". Given these factors, scattered showers are expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also occur with the latest model guidance hinting at decent amounts of available instability, particularly in western areas where daytime surface heating will most impactful.

This low will push east Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a strong surface low develops over the Great Lakes. A stalled front will develop between the exiting low to the east and the approaching low from the west Wednesday night. Moisture looks to drop around this time frame, so POPs may drop Wednesday night because of brief high pressure nosing in from the north. The stalled front will eventually attempt to slowly advance through on Thursday as a warm front as the low to the west gets closer, returning a stronger onshore flow. This will also advect higher PWATs of 1.35-1.45" into the area, increasing POPs again. The increased onshore flow will lead to warm air advection at 850mb with model guidance also hinting at locally stronger FGEN at 850 mb. CAPE appears lower than Wednesday, but with more forcing in place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms could occur through the area Thursday afternoon and evening.

Friday into Saturday low pressure will linger across New England which could lead to occasional showers as an upper-level trough deepens over the area from the west.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure remains in place into late tonight, then weakens through Sunday as a frontal system slowly approaches to the west.

VFR into early evening, then MVFR ceilings develop later this evening, around 03Z, then ceilings lower to IFR late night/toward Sunday morning. There is some uncertainty with the timing of lowering to IFR, as well as IFR remaining through the remainder of the forecast.

A brief shower is possible in the NYC metro area early this evening and handled with a VCSH. There is another chance of showers late tonight into Sunday morning before becoming likely by Sunday afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the timing of prevailing SHRA as it may be earlier than forecast by 1-2 hours.

ESE-SE winds around 10kt or less through the TAF period. Winds shift W tomorrow evening/overnight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of IFR onset is uncertain, and may be a couple of hours later than forecast. Timing of prevailing SHRA tomorrow may be a few hours earlier than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: IFR with showers early.

Monday: IFR to MVFR in the morning, then MVFR, becoming VFR in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers, an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR late at night.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR with showers likely, isolated thunderstorms possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions can be expected through the weekend with high pressure along the New England coast maintaining an easterly or southeasterly flow across the waters and speeds generally at or under 10 kt.

Winds and seas are expected to stay below SCA conditions through Friday.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides will increase with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night along with the threat of minor coastal flooding each night through this period and possibly including Wednesday night as well.

A coastal flood statement has been issued for this evening's high tide cycle across Southern Fairfield County with benchmarks expected to be just reached in a few spots. Statements may be expanded to include Southern Westchester and Southern Nassau Counties for Sunday night. Advisories may eventually be needed for these zones and Southern Queens Monday night, and even more so for Tuesday night.
Statements may be needed during this period for other parts along western LI Sound as well as lower NY Harbor.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Freeport Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:36 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:01 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:13 PM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Freeport Creek, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:05 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:22 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:30 PM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:44 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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